Hello, some thoughts and observations on the OPEKEPE issue, which seriously shook the government establishment and “took down” ministers and officials en masse. First, Mitsotakis, having realized that his government is now six years old and we are no longer… in the honeymoon phase, but closer to the seven-year itch—as they say in marriages—reacted instantly and saw it through to the end. Some within, even in or around the Maximos Mansion, argue that he overreacted and opened wounds for the future. For every incident, will we now have resignations and prosecutors, they ask, adding that this way long-standing political ties and relationships are burned, as well as intra-party balances, etc. Time will tell whether K.M.’s political instinct is correct or not. Frankly, when you have European Prosecutors (even if they’re Greek under a European guise) and phone-recorded conversations, the political game is hard to salvage. There isn’t much room left for alternative reactions. Second, it became clear once again that the tactic of “kicking the can down the road” doesn’t always work. Since 2019, they knew that agricultural subsidies were a mess, with cross-party dives going on for decades. Did it have to reach the point of making international headlines? Third, I think one reason Mitsotakis…handled it in one go (heads rolled and ADAE stepped in) was exactly that: the country’s international image, as well as his own.

Is there more?

I’m told there’s no other case file from the European Prosecutors, but there are other wiretaps involving MPs, and the issue will remain alive for about another week.

Voridis

Two elements of the story that weren’t known at first but I think are important. The first concerns Voridis, whose name does not appear in any wiretap. Three thousand pages of case file, and 2,800 of them are recorded conversations about favors and shady dealings. Voridis’ name appears nowhere. He was later accused by the OPEKEPE director for agreeing with a ministerial decision that had been in effect since 2016, under SYRIZA, regarding the distribution method of the funds. It may have been a mistake on Voridis’ part not to change the law, but that’s as far as it goes. Is extending a ministerial decision a criminal offense?

Voridis (2)

Now, when PASOK released a statement on Friday about a Preliminary Investigation Committee, Voridis didn’t wait long. Within minutes, he called the Prime Minister and submitted his resignation verbally. Of course, in Parliament, during the discussion on the investigation, he will go to defend himself. No serious legal expert has claimed, however, that there is a charge that stands against him.

What PASOK will do

Since we’re on the topic of the investigation committee, it’s interesting to see for whom PASOK will request it. Also, even more interesting will be what its Cretan leader will say when we get into details: names and figures from the land of the brave are in the conversations…

How many stole?

And one last thing, so that wrong impressions aren’t created. Every year, 246,000 farmers and livestock breeders receive subsidies, and they say that, for now, about 3,500 tax numbers are being audited for inaccurate or false declarations. If this statistic holds, you realize the scandal… pales in comparison to the national sport of tax evasion!

Announcements about the marine parks

Given that K.M. was at his office since Saturday morning, wrapping up government pending issues, a keen observer saw—through the side door—Gerapetritis and Papastavrou entering. I’m told they’re finalizing the last details for the announcements on the two marine parks in the Ionian and the South Aegean, which the Prime Minister has preannounced for days now and are a matter of a few days (possibly even tomorrow).

Bill on the “deep state”

In this peculiar climate, Vice President Hatzidakis has launched a first wave of interventions concerning the deep state. It will include 5 key interventions addressing issues that plague citizens in their dealings with the state. The relevant proposals have been collected—mainly through research carried out by a task force formed in the vice presidency—and are being evaluated. At the same time, the drafting of an initial version of the bill has begun. Consultation with the relevant ministries will follow, and the goal is to have coordination with the involved ministries completed by the end of the summer, so the bill can then be brought to Parliament.

Marinakis’ regulation for ERT

A second bill—and a fast one—by Deputy Minister P. Marinakis, following the changes in the registries of print and electronic media, which were welcomed by the overwhelming majority of journalists’ and media owners’ associations. In today’s Cabinet meeting, Pavlos Marinakis will announce a series of interventions in public television, the most important of which had already been preannounced during Mitsotakis’ visit to ERT: indirect raises for permanent ERT employees, in the form of bonuses, provided ERT’s budget is in surplus. Beyond that, among other things, provisions are foreseen for the collection of the license fee, new collaborations for the adoption of innovative technologies in audiovisual media, utilization of the ERT archive in cooperation with the Ministry of Education for educational use, internship opportunities at ERT for students, and the incorporation of EU regulation provisions on press freedom. These won’t be the last regulations, of course, as the Deputy Minister himself has stated in Parliament that he aims to bring two more bills in the fall concerning the licensing of radio stations and regional channels, which still operate under a regime of temporariness, thereby aiming to bring order to a long-unregulated landscape.

€300 million damage to the banks from the solution for Swiss franc loans

The solution for Swiss franc loans was found by the Ministry of Finance and handed to the banks, which are working on calculations based on their portfolios, using the model the ministry put on the table. Algorithms must run to determine the method of implementation and the result. The Ministry’s model functions through a peculiar kind of haircut, as the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate is subsidized and the loan is converted to euros. Subsequently, a fixed interest rate is applied for the remainder of the loan, which will not exceed 3%. In any case, it is a model that attempts to alleviate the losses for Swiss franc borrowers as much as possible. Based on the calculations made by the banks, their damage is estimated at around €300 million, a figure for which they will need to make a provision.

The people’s vacations and the banks’ results

The people’s vacations – I can’t imagine any other reason – seem to have led the banks to all schedule the announcement of their results on the same day. Specifically, on July 30, National Bank, Piraeus Bank, and Eurobank are set to announce their results, while Alpha Bank is the only one not aligned and plans to do so on August 1. Analysts, who are obliged to follow the announcements and the subsequent conference calls, have expressed their displeasure, so a solution will be sought for at least one bank to differentiate and choose another date.

Deals in football – basketball

We may not reach the scale of business agreements like those in the NBA, where Mark Walter (owner of the Dodgers) agreed to acquire control of the Lakers in a deal that values the famed team at $10 billion—the highest sale price of a fully-owned team in U.S. history—but deals are still happening in our smaller market. The sale of Aris B.C. is of interest, as the buyer is an investor, Richard Xiao of Malaysian origin, founder/CEO of the RHC Group based in New York, which operates as an investment platform and family office. He has also founded J17 Capital Inc., a venture capital firm investing in tech startups, SaaS, blockchain, etc. The investment in Aris appears to be his “residency” in the sports business world, as he has stated that his long-term goal is to acquire a minority stake in an NBA franchise. Also in football, well-known entrepreneur Giorgos Spanos (ETEKΑ) is selling Atromitos F.C. to Yahia Hassine, an Anglo-Algerian investor with holdings in the pharmaceutical sector (Ramdesk). He is also the owner of Beeonze Sport Ltd, through which he operates as a football agent. His broader profile leads many to believe he represents or is backed by third-party business capital.

The “Uncreated Light” of the Emfietzoglou family

The Emfietzoglou family, as is well known, has for years been caught in the spiral of foreclosures, due to debts stemming from the “Michaniki” era. Another auction has been scheduled for July 30 for the large estate and building complex in Anavyta. Of course, this has happened many times in the past, but ultimately, even at the last moment, the process was suspended. In any case, although the family has already lost several significant properties through auctions and sales, they don’t seem to be out of the woods yet. But they haven’t forgotten their entrepreneurial DNA… So, as this column has learned, last Friday a new company was founded with the admittedly impressive and original name “Uncreated Light Single-Member P.C.” The company’s purpose is real estate management, buying and selling land, and general activity in the real estate sector. The company is based in the Municipality of Keratsini-Drapetsona, in the area of Lakkómata–Schistou Avenue, where I assume there is some plot of land for development. The initial share capital of the company is €600,000, divided into 60,000 capital contribution shares with a nominal value of €10 each, and it is certified that the amount was fully paid upon its establishment. The sole shareholder, as the person who appears to have paid the €600,000, is Mrs. Eleni Emfietzoglou, wife of Prodromos Emfietzoglou, who also assumes management of the company.

GEK TERNA’s 25-year milestone

Buyers may have slowed down on the Athens Stock Exchange after a five-day rally that pushed the General Index to a new 15-year high, yet GEK TERNA stood out and closed above 20 euros for the first time in 25 years. Earlier in June, it had surpassed this milestone intraday on two other occasions, but finally conquered it last Friday. The “counter” stopped at 20.08 euros, while it reached up to 20.38 euros at the day’s high. To find a higher price, we must go far back in time, specifically to February 14, 2000, when GEK TERNA closed at 20.57 euros. The group’s market capitalization exceeds 2 billion euros and is up 8.65% this year. Axia gives a target price of 27.4 euros for the share and Euroxx sets it at 28 euros. The average target price from analysts is calculated slightly above 26.5 euros, which means it has an upside potential of 32.2% compared to current levels.

The “legacy” property of Holterman

Speaking of the Group, during the period when Henry Holterman held a stake in GEK TERNA, the company acquired one of his properties in Corfu, in the well-known area of Kassiopi, with the aim of residential-touristic development. The property was recorded in the company’s books at its acquisition cost of 5.11 million euros. The Dutch investor, as is known, departed from the company years ago, but the 15-stremma (15,000 sq.m.) property with sea frontage remained in GEK TERNA’s ownership without any development or investment plan in place. Eventually, some time ago, the subsidiary Kassiopi Real Estate, which owned the property, was sold to the company ZFT Holdings Ltd, with no other known details or sale price. It is evidently an offshore company, as it is based in the British Virgin Islands with an unknown ultimate shareholder and managed by Galina Leonidovna Aleksandrovich. Of course, the land will not be difficult to sell again or develop, as it is located in an area of unique natural beauty in the north of the island, where holiday homes are owned, among others, by the Rothschild family, German investor Joerg Rockenhaeuser (Permira), Rob Lucas (CVC Capital), while the land that belonged to NCH Capital was acquired by an investment company involving Calamos Investments of John Calamos.

Historic records for Profile and Kri Kri

And back to the Stock Exchange to note that we also had two mid-cap stocks that remained on a path of historic records: Kri Kri and Profile. Kri Kri took another step toward reaching 19 euros, scoring a positive 7×8 streak that rewarded it with gains of around 12.8%, while its performance this year approaches 26%. Profile, on its part, reached above 7 euros for the first time ever. It counts 10 consecutive gains that have boosted it by a total of 19.15% and is running at a pace of +33.9% just before the end of the first half of the year.

ASE: A profitable semester ends, a period of suspense begins

The General Index on the Athens Stock Exchange turned negative on Friday (-0.31%) to 1,877 points. Still, it offers weekly gains of 4.16% and year-to-date +27.72%. Today, in the final session of the month and semester, the market’s stance for the next half-year will be revealed. A historic record of 8 consecutive upward weeks is expected to be registered. There is a small secret stemming from the recent revision of the indices by HELEX. The weighting of bank stocks has increased even more, which “obliges” traditional institutional investors in our market—equity mutual funds—to increase their positions in heavyweight stocks. Ahead of us lie many ambiguous developments, while July 9th looms with the deadline for the US-EU trade agreement, now open to all possibilities. Furthermore, there is much talk of business deals, acquisitions, and mergers everywhere—in the IT sector, Energy, financial services, and Tourism. Let’s also note that Alpha Bank returns today to the trading board, which will further enhance the already increased trading value (212.4 million euros average last week).

Movements in the Servicers market

Everyone is talking to everyone these days. The market for managing “red loans” in Greece is growing but simultaneously becoming much more difficult. The shareholders of the Loan and Credit Claims Management Companies (servicers) have become much more pressing and demanding. The market for “red loans” has increased by about 3.5 billion euros this year, recording a total rise of nearly 20 billion euros in the past two years, according to updated data from the Bank of Greece, but the central issue remains recoveries. The total value of non-performing loans under servicer management in Q1 2025 rose to 78.2 billion euros, from 74.75 billion euros in the previous quarter (due to Hercules III securitizations), while privately managed loans now represent 53% of all managed loans. Behind the scenes, discussions are underway. Major Western institutions are pushing for results and returns. If you can’t do it—merge.

IMF: Austerity…on itself with holograms

The International Monetary Fund is implementing an extensive austerity program… on itself. In an effort by Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to strengthen ties with the Trump administration, she decided to cut back somewhat on its administrative costs. In this context, IMF Deputy Director Gita Gopinath (a top economist with an academic career at Harvard and the University of Chicago) visited major Silicon Valley companies, listened to their ideas, and one that is soon to be implemented is to hold meetings via holograms and artificial intelligence so that huge sums are not spent on executive travel, hospitality, etc. Very soon, we will see IMF officials putting on those special devices on their heads and “virtually transferring” themselves to meeting spaces to discuss the serious problems of our planet…

Wall Street makes history

The US public finances are not in good shape. Huge debt, large deficits, sluggish growth rates. On the contrary, the metrics of private companies, especially those listed on Wall Street, are doing excellently. On Friday, the S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high for the first time since February, marking a major comeback, +24% from its April low. It took 89 trading days for Wall Street stocks to recover between record highs, making this the fastest recovery in history after a -15% drop. The previous record was 90 trading days in 1998. In 2020, it took about 125 trading sessions for the S&P 500 to reach a new all-time high. Additionally, the S&P 500 has delivered a +10% return so far in the second quarter and is on track for its best quarterly performance since Q1 2024.

The big dilemma for analysts

New York is divided. At these record levels, how much higher can the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite go? Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has risen by 5%. Based on fundamental analysis, the S&P 500 is expensive again. It is trading at 22 times its projected 2025 earnings, up from 18 times in April. A rapid increase of four points in the S&P 500’s P/E ratio is rare—maybe it’s a signal to investors to stop. On the other hand, market optimists, the “bulls,” can take comfort in the potential rate cuts expected later this year and the possible passage of the Trump administration’s megabill, which could boost growth. In about 15 days, US banks will begin announcing first-half earnings. Another source of optimism—especially for US multinationals—is the weakening of the dollar. For many years, companies like Apple sold products abroad and earned revenues in weaker currencies, which they then converted to dollars. This process hurt their consolidated results. Now things have changed. The US dollar has declined against foreign currencies, so Apple and other major US multinationals now have a tailwind that could provide a short-term boost in the coming months.