– Greetings, welcome back we say, though not “have a good winter,” because with the way the climate has turned out, it may only get cold in three months’ time. In any case, our own… school year starts today. After three weeks of holidays, we hope you missed us—because we certainly missed you. So, Athens hasn’t fully returned to business yet, but the M.M. is back, I think in full force, first day today all together in the office, in a “school year” expected to be difficult, with unseen issues lurking for now. The summer didn’t bring huge surprises—yes, there were fires, but nothing extreme for the time being, and tourism was solid despite the usual complaints. So, all relatively calm, except for a rumor mill dragging on, the type that says: “From September scandals will go crazy—OPEKEPE 2 with wiretaps starring 30 ND MPs (and a few from PASOK and SYRIZA too) caught shamelessly doling out favors with some OPEKEPE official from the government’s first term named Melas.”

Mitsotakis: I’m not backing down…

– Right, fine, I hear all this, but it strikes me as a bit reheated. Let’s wait and see in a few days, when the first fines and names of various “farm bosses” (without party badges) start coming out from initial inspections, what picture will take shape. K.M., who was recently asked about this whole toxic climate being cultivated, replied: “I’ll clear things up at the Thessaloniki Fair. I’ll go all the way and hit the gas on our program. Whatever belongs with the prosecutor will go there, but I won’t get trapped in this climate by those who want to bring us down. We have time, work, and a program, and we will govern as normal. Enough with the scandal-mongering.” Still, it will be interesting to see his stance against this wave of personal erosion and targeting, being steadily built for months. We’ll also see what’s underneath: if the scandal stories are hollow, they won’t hold; if something serious is there, then we’re talking about a whole different ball game.

Political Scene

– The political scene, as we’ve now entered the second half of the second term and the government lags significantly from the 40% of 2023 (though we’ll see how much after the Thessaloniki Fair), hasn’t changed informally: we still have PASOK under Androulakis as the opposition—pale to… ghostly pale, the ever-familiar Zoitsa who long ago dropped the little hearts and returned to her old, classic self, and SYRIZA under the noble Famellos, who… isn’t making a career out of it. But the best and most interesting is yet to come, as Tsipras’s party is ante portas and, barring dramatic surprises (early elections within three months), will be announced no later than January 2026. If pollsters are right, and if it’s confirmed that our Leader still stirs the crowds (!) of the Left and a slice of the Center-Left, then we’ll see turbulence on the spectrum to the left of ND. It will also depend on whom Tsipras reels in, because he risks presenting a SYRIZA Reload, in which case—cry your eyes out, Charalambos… or rather, Alexis. Now, strictly for journalistic reasons, I’ll mention the word on the street that Antonis Samaras will also start a party. But given that his family just went through the worst tragedy possible only a few days ago, I don’t think it’s the time for such talk.

Who benefits?

– Still, using common sense, Tsipras’s reappearance will be the event of the winter, and of course it can’t help but benefit Mitsotakis politically, while mainly hurting today’s SYRIZA and its remnants. Possibly a little PASOK too—not so much because PASOK people will flock to Tsipras, but because his party might hover at percentages very close to Androulakis’s. Generally, anyone who wants to punish ND will go to Tsipras, not Androulakis, say the fans of our Alexis, and they’re getting ready, starting with a book “with his own truth about his governance” that Tsipras is preparing.

Patelis’s book…

– Earlier, though, this fall—around October—we’ll be occupied with the book being prepared by Mitsotakis’s former economic office director, Alexis Patelis, currently in typesetting. It’ll be a book that, through the author’s experiences, describes how Greece regained its international credibility, confirmed by the investment-grade rating in 2019–2024, in contrast, of course, to what he inherited from Tsipras.

…and the Swiss woman at Davos

– Because Tsipras is attempting a rebranding these days, writes Patelis, doesn’t mean everyone forgets what phase we were in back then. And he recounts a funny story from Mitsotakis’s first trip to the Davos Forum, January 2020. When the Greek delegation arrived, a Swiss lady from the Forum was assigned to assist them with whatever they needed and to accompany them from event to event, since the venues are labyrinthine. Mitsotakis immediately launched into back-to-back meetings, joined events, and gave interviews to international media—a truly packed schedule, as the Forum is a chance to see many people you don’t meet every day in one place. At the end of the mission’s stay in Davos, the Swiss woman turned and… apologized, saying she hadn’t been as active as she should, explaining she hadn’t realized they actually wanted to work—since the last time she had been “assigned” to a Greek prime minister’s delegation, its members were mostly interested in… getting acquainted with Swiss nature and strolling along the Promenade, with its panoramic views.

Thessaloniki Week

– Meetings may be packed this week at the M.M. in preparation for K.M.’s appearance at the Thessaloniki Fair, but in Thessaloniki itself the activity will also be intense. Tomorrow, a meeting of the Party’s local committee is scheduled for the upcoming tours and events. On Wednesday, Chatzidakis and Livanios are set to meet with mayors of Central Macedonia. On Thursday, Mitsotakis heads to the co-capital, where in the morning he’ll hold meetings at the Government House with local stakeholders, later speak at an event at the Concert Hall on major projects in Northern Greece, and finally meet with “blue” MPs from Thessaloniki A and B.

Biggest Tax Cut in History

– As you may have read these days, this year’s Thessaloniki Fair will have a focus. Pierrakakis has proposed to K.M. that he dedicate the fair to the family—meaning strong tax-cut incentives for every child, from the first one up to almost tax-free status for large families. My source tells me: “K.M. will announce the biggest direct tax cut in History.”

Announcements for the Parliamentary Group Secretary

– The sad news of Apostolos Vesyropoulos’ passing created a vacancy in the position of Secretary of New Democracy’s Parliamentary Group, which will be filled in the coming days (Tuesday–Wednesday). Last time, Zetta Makri’s name was strongly in play, but this time, among women, it is Zoe Rapti who is being heard loudly. Another name that is being widely discussed is that of Arta MP Giorgos Stylios, a long-serving, low-profile MP acceptable to all factions, while also entering the mix is Notis Mitarakis, who is currently Parliamentary Representative alongside Kairidis and Lazaridis.

Business developments and deals on the horizon

– Moving now to the market, we’ve experienced (and are still experiencing) a hot August on the stock exchange, while on the deals front the standout was the exclusive negotiations between Credia and HSBC regarding its Maltese subsidiary. Otherwise, September’s agenda includes Euronext’s public bid for the Athens Exchange Group, METLEN’s entryway into the FTSE 100, the National Bank which needs to make its move in the insurance (and not only) sector as Piraeus Bank is proceeding with Ethniki Insurance—which by year’s end will be in its group—while of course, high on the agenda is any news regarding the upgrade of the Athens Stock Exchange, an event that remains of great importance with multiple ripple effects and possibly serious consequences. The market overall is at boiling point; there are, as they say in the village, two major deals “in the pipeline,” but such moves usually take a long time to mature, requiring approvals, the right timing, etc. For now, then, we remain at the stage of good intentions, investment bankers stirring the pot and making plans, and some discreet preparatory moves already made for one of these deals. In smaller-scale business agreements there’s a lot of activity as everyone is eager to sell, but entrepreneurs say the market demands crazy valuations. Since that’s no way to get deals done, some are lowering the bar closer to reality—so in the coming weeks, we won’t be bored.

The National Bank’s plans

– And since we mentioned above the National Bank’s moves—where, according to Pavlos Mylonas, the basic prerequisite for any deal is value creation—its management is paving the way by announcing a bigger profit distribution (payout ratio up to 60%) while holding strong capital/liquidity to proceed with a bold deal. Market chatter suggests the Bank’s plan begins with acquiring a foreign company in the private banking sector. This move would boost “non-interest income” and revenues from asset management. If the information is confirmed, bancassurance won’t be the first, but the second move by the National Bank.

The suitors for water and PPC

– Among the new business opportunities to watch unfold soon, add the water management sector, which is emerging as the new strategic field of interest for both the market and the state. Reports converge on a plan to create a new body or mechanism to supervise and implement critical infrastructure nationwide. The political and business dynamics forming around “water” now resemble other eras, specifically times when control over energy and telecommunications was considered a matter of national significance. In this context, interest is rising from major private groups—from infrastructure to energy—that see in the water map a new market with serious potential. However, PPC’s emergence at the forefront, and with an active role in government planning, has already stirred strong movement and reactions before the “ink has even dried” on the plan. According to reports, the “whiff” that PPC is looking strategically at water comes from the participation of Deputy CEO of Production Operations Alexis Païzis in government meetings on water held before the summer holidays. Païzis has a background in major infrastructure projects, such as Psyttalia, as a member of the AKTOR-AVAX consortium. PPC, which until recently flirted with the idea of developing desalination units in decommissioned power facilities on the islands, now seems to be vying for a strategic role in water—a precious resource for electricity production directly affected by drought. What is striking is that even before the government plan is finalized, the market is already on high alert. Big groups like Metlen, GEK Terna, Motor Oil and others, as well as smaller players, are drawn to this new big business—and would surely not welcome a process without competition. Tensions have begun before the plan is even officially presented, showing both the size of the stakes and the level of expectations brewing behind the scenes.

Telis (Mystakidis) moves forward with “New Toumba SA”

– Let’s turn now to a sports-business development, as Telis Mystakidis—who has sparked a civil war (sic) within PAOK by deciding to finance the club’s new stadium—has taken the next step. After founding “New Toumba Single-Member SA” at the end of July, he recently deposited the company’s initial share capital. The project is being run by Symeon Kalandaridis, who also oversees Mystakidis’ companies in Thessaloniki, including Alpha Invest (formerly NIMTENCO) through which the Greek billionaire is carrying out a €20 million investment in the landmark Roosevelt building in downtown Thessaloniki, at Eleftherias Square. The building, purchased by Mystakidis, will be ready in the coming months to house his corporate headquarters. As for New Toumba, Mystakidis has sent PAOK’s amateur sports association proof of funds worth €250 million for the construction of the club’s new stadium. At the same time, in Ivan Savvidis’ camp—owner of PAOK FC—architectural plans for a new stadium have also been presented, insisting that if anyone is to build a new stadium, it will be them. A mess…

The Romanians get to work at Praktiker

– The Romanians of Paval Holding, who bought Praktiker Hellas, still have room to further streamline the chain. Based on 2024 financials posted recently, turnover stood at €186 million (flat versus 2023), while cost of sales reached €118 million (63.5% of turnover). Last year the chain posted EBITDA of €2.7 million (+22%) but ended up with net losses of €1.7 million due to higher financial costs, with accumulated losses reaching €8 million. Last year it made significant investments, renovating seven stores (Elliniko, Agia Varvara, Mandra, Kalamata, Ioannina, Thessaloniki, Alexandroupolis), while this year it is renovating four more and investing in digital infrastructure. Many synergies are expected since Paval Holding controls Dedeman, the leading DIY player in Romania, and with the Praktiker acquisition plans to expand further in the Balkans, especially into Skopje and Bulgaria. In Greece, where the chain has 17 stores nationwide, the plan includes new outlets in Attica and at least two in the regions. Notably, as part of the deal, a pre-contract has been signed with EUROBANK for the purchase of the eight stores it currently leases from the bank in Elliniko, Tavros, Agia Varvara, Metamorfosi, Mandra, Patras, Heraklion (Crete) and Thessaloniki.

A silent high-level guest

– This August we had several high-level visits to Greece. Under the radar of the media was the visit of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. The key political ally of President Donald Trump visited Athens with his family, after spending a pleasant ten-day holiday in Mykonos and Santorini. Unlike other colleagues who opted to travel to Israel to meet with Israeli leaders, Scalise—the second most powerful member of the U.S. Congress—chose a family trip to Greece. Despite still recovering from injuries sustained in the 2017 assassination attempt, Scalise was spotted climbing the Acropolis and posing for photos with his family and security. Others saw him enjoying a private dinner with his family at Zonars Dionysos, where he greeted fellow American tourists. During his trip, Scalise also met privately and informally with a senior government official, though no details were released. The Scalise family was hosted for a few days by John Georges, a Greek-American from Louisiana. Reportedly, Georges had been a candidate for U.S. Ambassador to Greece, but that role was ultimately assigned to Kimberly Guilfoyle by President Trump, pending Senate confirmation.

Double from Cosmote eValue

– Cosmote eValue, OTE Group’s subsidiary, is turning into a strong card for the group. As the outsourcing services market continues to grow at a fast pace (+13% on average in 2019–2024), the company—holding a leading position in Greek contact centers—almost doubled its profitability in 2024. According to published results, turnover reached €175 million (from €170 million), and with higher operating profitability, pre-tax profits rose 97% to €10.7 million, from €5.4 million the previous year. Cosmote eValue managed to expand cooperation with key existing clients in both the private and public sectors (PPC, HEDNO, Ministry of Labor -1555, Nespresso, Protergia, DHL, OPAP, Unisystems, Netcompany, ENAON, etc.) and secured new partnerships, including with Bioiatriki, Inventor, Electra and others.

Building with Ukraine

– This past July, President Volodymyr Zelensky launched the “Build with Ukraine” program, an ambitious initiative to export battle-tested defense technologies to allied countries, strengthening global security and Ukraine’s economy. The program has already secured agreements with Denmark and is in talks with Norway, Germany, the UK and Lithuania, aiming to create joint production lines for drones, missiles and artillery. The plan aligns with the EU’s “ReArm Europe” program, expected to mobilize €800 billion to boost defense capabilities amid cuts in U.S. aid and Russian threats. The philosophy of Build with Ukraine is licensing Ukrainian technology and producing it in partner countries, with the Ukrainian army as primary user but also supplying the EU under the ReArm framework. There is serious Greek interest in the whole project. Within recent business missions to Ukraine, Greek defense companies have invested time and money and are now in the final stages of licensing to use Ukrainian technologies with the goal of starting production in Greece.