-Hello, in a brief assessment of the TIF I would say it was a good three days for the government and for Mitsotakis, probably better than expected. The economic package he announced is admittedly impressive because it targets very large groups of citizens who ultimately decide the political game: middle incomes, young people (where ND lags in preference), retirees who are always its base. The packaging was also good, since it included demographics, family, young workers, a bit of tenants and property owners, and VAT cuts for some islands with the promise that next year maybe the rest will be included too. So yes, the package was smart and well-prepared by Pierrakakis and his team since July, not only as economic benefits but also in political and social targeting. It was also well presented in communications terms by government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis, as well as Zografos, Efthymiou and Amyras.

And the opposition?
I read, for example, seasoned analysts who are politically against Mitsotakis writing that “the opposition needs to work to present a reliable alternative if they want to claim power…”. I absolutely agree, but personally I don’t really see it, judging by what we’ve seen so far from PASOK, and now Tsipras has joined this picture too — last Friday he gave a rather pale speech, but in the end — he couldn’t resist — he threw in a… patriotic tax on the rich. How original and creative, really, did they agonize much over how to come up with that? Still, I should note that he generally avoided the extreme rhetoric of the past.

Mitsotakis
-Mitsotakis was also solid and steady at the press conference — no mistakes, and more confident than the atmosphere of recent days suggested. In essence he said the obvious: he won’t change the electoral law (as if he’d announce that at this point even if he wanted to), essentially scoffing at the idea of changing the rules mid-game when the second party (PASOK) is at half his polling numbers, and he repeated what he said last year: he wants an outright majority, but if the people decide otherwise, he’s willing and obliged to listen.

Caution with the former ones…
-Great caution and notably low tones were also maintained by K.M. on the expected and reasonable question about Samaras and Karamanlis, the two former prime ministers: for the first, avoiding any political reference due to his personal tragedy; for the second, merely noting a policy disagreement on foreign affairs. I’m told this will be the handling line from now on.

And now?
-So from yesterday… the new political season has officially begun, and K.M. and M.M. may hope they made a good start. Pollsters will measure what has shifted, whether the government gained anything at all from this three-day event, and what they hope to gain gradually when a third of voters start to see some difference in their wages and pensions next year, mainly through lower withholding taxes. As described to me by those in Thessaloniki over the weekend, the mood was initially rather “silent and restrained” among MPs and the blue bigwigs, and then it improved somewhat thanks to the measures and Mitsotakis’s Sunday appearance. You see, the central issue for all these people orbiting around the parties is that — for most of them — their professional survival depends on the course of the party itself. So as elections draw nearer, their anxiety mounts, and I think it’s only natural they’re maneuvering either to grab some chair even at this late hour, or at least to secure reelection if they’re MPs.

Two more positives
-Today, when Pierrakakis presents the details of the measures, they’ve prepared an 80-page package with examples, and two more “goodies” will be added: first, women who just became mothers will be exempt from the imputed income of self-employed professionals for two years; and second, the subscription TV tax is abolished…

The directive and the bouzoukia
-I hear the directive from the government not to go to bouzoukia and other late-night clubs was followed this year by government officials. Of course, there were plenty of blue groups in bars and restaurants. Even Mitsotakis himself went out for some rest, joking with journalists that he went straight to bed because he had work the next day.

K. Mitsotakis: Financing SMEs, out-of-court settlement, banks’ extroversion
-I’ll stay on this year’s TIF to note that banks didn’t feature heavily, but they weren’t absent either from the PM’s press conference. K. Mitsotakis was categorical that the guarantees and subsidies banks leverage via EU funds must go to small and medium enterprises, also referring to the important work of the Hellenic Development Bank, and stressing that major efforts are being made to support SME financing. He also noted that the government is constantly working to improve the out-of-court debt settlement mechanism and looking for solutions to help reduce private debt. On the growth side of banking activities, he spoke positively about the initiative of Greek banks to expand abroad (in response to a question about the move to acquire HSBC Malta), but also about the reverse — a foreign bank investing in the Greek system (i.e., Unicredit).

Pharos, the Greek AI Factory, by the end of 2026
-The discussion on Artificial Intelligence and the major opportunities for our country, held yesterday at the Ministry of Digital Governance’s pavilion at the 89th TIF, produced some news. It featured Minister Dimitris Papastergiou and the CEO of the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations, Giannis Papachristou. AI today is the most dynamic sector globally, with colossal investments in infrastructure, data centers and software. According to a UBS study, global investments will reach $375 billion in 2025 and more than $500 billion in 2026. In this context, the head of the HCAP stressed that Pharos will go into operation at the end of 2026, allowing Greece to take on a leading role in AI. Recall that Pharos is one of the first 13 AI Factories in Europe and aims to leverage DAEDALUS, the new national supercomputer. The new factory will act as a growth accelerator, building a new, long-term sustainable production model not based solely on tourism and real estate. As he noted, Greece has a major opportunity ahead to claim a distinct place on the global AI map, ensuring there will also be AI in Greek. The benefits for the economy and citizens will be multiple, since Pharos will link academic research with the real economy and provide vital tools to SMEs and startups to use innovative technologies, acting as an AI accelerator with applications across many sectors, from health and sustainability to tackling the climate crisis and tourism. HCAP will take on corporate governance of Pharos, and by the end of 2025 the operational model will be finalized, while in early 2026 the Pharos Service Center — a “one stop shop” for those who want to make use of its capabilities — will open. Also participating in Pharos, alongside the Daedalus supercomputer system, are the “Athena” Research Center, “Demokritos,” and the National Infrastructures for Research and Technology (GRNET).

What Greek shipowners are discussing with Washington DC
-Trump is seeking to revive US shipping and especially its shipbuilding industry as a counterweight to China, from the very first days of his new presidential term. The US federal budget, which includes historically high funding of $28 billion, aims to support shipping, shipbuilding, and related technologies. I hear the US Embassy in Greece has also entered the game, showing intense activity in this direction lately. And it makes sense, since Greek-owned shipping is a global power with vast know-how. It controls 21% of global capacity, a figure that reaches an impressive 33% in tankers. It also controls 61% of the EU’s transport capacity. Within this framework, my sources tell me that last week a meeting took place at the US Embassy between Greek shipowners with shipping companies listed on the US stock market and American officials, where they discussed strengthening maritime cooperation between the two countries. According to information, the meeting at the American embassy put on the table issues beyond the development of the US shipbuilding industry — such as joint projects, technical cooperation, and exchange of know-how in areas like green shipping, ship cybersecurity, digitization of port infrastructure, and adapting to international regulatory requirements for sustainable navigation. Greek shipowners are also participating in a Washington think tank, giving ideas and advice on strengthening America’s presence in shipping and shipbuilding — where yes, there are shipyards for warships, but not for commercial vessels. In this context, a trip to the other side of the Atlantic by the Minister of Shipping and Island Policy, Vassilis Kikilias, is being prepared for this fall.

Iris breaks the 4 million user barrier
-An interesting announcement is expected today from Interbanking Systems S.A. (the well-known DIAS). The IRIS P2P system is about to celebrate a milestone that now makes it a “national champion” in the payments space: 4 million registered users. A service that started quietly, with just 700,000 users at the end of 2020, managed within 5 years to grow its user base by +471% and radically change the way Greeks send money to one another. Even more impressive is that transactions in the first 8 months (January–August 2025) skyrocketed from 787,000 in 2020 to 68 million this year (+9,600%). The recent decision to double the daily transfer limit from €500 to €1,000 starting early next year also shows DIAS’s confidence in future usage, since IRIS P2P is now seen as a bridge for the country’s broader digital transformation.

Financial Times on Alpha Bank and the Stock Exchange
-The Financial Times, in a piece titled “peripheral stocks lead rally in European markets,” mentions the Greek stock exchange, which has managed to deliver very strong returns to major institutional investors. The FT article makes special reference to Alpha Bank and its performance on the Athens exchange, stating that “in Athens, Alpha Bank led the gains, with its stock more than doubling this year, while Spanish tech company Indra Sistemas has risen over 90%. Strong economic growth in Southern Europe supports the rally. In Q2, the Greek economy grew by 1.7% year-on-year, while Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.3%,” the article notes.

Give us this day (and tomorrow we’ll see again – health permitting)
-It may sound strange, but the clearest conclusion from the recent UBS and Citi financial roadshows in New York is the “give us this day” trend. What business plans and what prospects? The main and greatest interest of professional fund managers is dividends. How much cash will they pocket, and when. Everything else has taken a back seat. Markets are volatile, the economic environment is fluid, geopolitical tensions persist, so insecurities have increased — and good dividends have climbed high on the agenda. Yes, there are also questions about prospects, but they’re no longer the focal point.

PDMA, warrants and funds (part II)
-The PDMA (Public Debt Management Agency) responded regarding the recent note in this column about the legal dispute with the funds VR Capital, Wellington Management, Pharo Management, Gemstock Limited and Karrick Limited, due to the (necessary) buyback of GDP-linked warrants granted to PSI bondholders in 2012. As we said, it was a very correct and necessary action to reduce future burdens on Greek debt, since their activation (given to those who accepted the “haircut”) would have added €500–600 million in annual interest for almost two decades. Their activation would occur if GDP growth exceeded 2% and total GDP surpassed €266 billion.

So PDMA replies to the column’s question, saying it did not hire investment advisors for the buyback of the warrants. The case was handled directly by the Agency, with internal preparations starting a year before the buyback. They also add that PDMA was the one that took the funds to court, with the hearing set in a UK court for April 20, 2026. They also note that if another buyback method had been chosen, the cost would have been significantly higher, while now — beyond the €156 million already paid — in the worst-case scenario, if PDMA loses in court, the loss will be limited to an additional €50 million. Clearly, PDMA’s handling was more effective and cheaper. But still — and especially at a time when the bond market is not at its best — is there reason for Greece to be in court with its lenders over the buyback price? After all, a basic principle is you don’t take to court the people who lend you money. The issue seems to be gaining traction abroad, with complaints widening and coming from 40% of those who held warrants. A recent proof is the September 4, 2025 article in French financial daily “Les Echos,” titled “Greece launches legal battle with hedge funds.”

Countdown to the REDS–Dimand deal for Gournes
-The REDS–Dimand deal for Gournes, Heraklion, is nearing completion — expected even within September. The transaction was first announced in April: back then, REDS (the owner) and DIMAND agreed on the conditional sale of 100% of the share capital of “Gournes Real Estate Development & Management S.A.” (a wholly-owned REDS subsidiary), which owns a 346-acre plot in the Gournes area of Hersonissos municipality, Heraklion, Crete. The final price will be determined on the date of transfer of the shares, while the agreed property value stands at €39.9 million. The plot is located 13 km from “Nikos Kazantzakis” airport and 16 km from Heraklion city, where mixed-use developments are planned, including luxury hotels, residences, and commercial spaces, with provision also for the potential development of a casino.

Still early
-Although OPAP’s exclusive licenses for number games and land-based sports betting expire in 2030, analysts have already started asking management whether there are contacts or processes for a new concession. OPAP’s CEO, Jan Karas, in the Q2 earnings call explained that the group is of course interested in retaining those rights beyond 2030, but no processes have started yet in that direction. While it’s not too early, he said, it’s still early to act. At the same time, the lottery tender is underway since the current license expires in 2026. OPAP has advanced to the second phase to submit a binding financial offer, and all indications are that it will keep the lotteries in its portfolio. Meanwhile, as shown in the financial statements, the €201 million price tag for acquiring the remaining 15.51% of Stoiximan (announced in mid-July), thus raising OPAP’s stake to 100% (full takeover), was paid on August 4.

Spetses, the Old Harbor, and the vindication of the former Port Authority chief
-Developments are unfolding in the case of the chaos prevailing in Spetses’ Old Harbor regarding the mooring of luxury — and not only luxury — yachts. Judicial sources tell me the case file has now been completed on the 77 illegal moorings. At first, many rushed to criticize the decision of then-Port Authority chief, Lieutenant Commander LS Panagiotis Maridakis, to ban vessels from docking at them. At the same time, a preliminary investigation by the Piraeus Prosecutor’s Office was underway, with serious charges leveled against the Spetses Port Authority since 2021, with some blaming it for the existing lawlessness. Through swift actions, the former Port Authority chief of Spetses reported the case in full detail to the Prosecutor’s Office. The Prosecutor decided to archive all charges against the Port Authority as essentially unfounded. The rationale: the removal of the illegal moorings should have been handled in time by the State Property Service and the Municipal Port Fund. It is worth noting that the State Property Service delayed … 8 years before acting on the moorings!

Updates on the Ioannou deal
-At the end of July, the Ioannou family’s hotel group Donkey Hotels completed a major deal with Spanish real estate investment firm Azora, under which Azora acquired 50.1% of Donkey Hotels, with the Ioannou family retaining the remaining 49.9%. A “preview” of the agreement came via a €24,000,002.82 share capital increase (cash contribution) approved at Donkey’s Extraordinary General Assembly on July 21. A special auditor’s report on August 5 certified the full payment of the increase. On July 29, another General Assembly elected the new Board of Directors: Christos Ioannou as Chairman, Francisco Javier Arus Castillo as Vice Chairman, and members Gonzalo Garcia-Lago Soler (representing Azora Servicios de Direccion, S.A.U.), Pedro de Vega Cobos (representing Azora Corporate Services, S.L.U.), and Thomas Giolmas. The board’s term runs until July 29, 2030.

The General Assembly also authorized the board, for a five-year period, to decide on capital increases up to €20 million, through the issuance of new common voting shares. This authority applies only in cases where liquidity needs arise in the ordinary course of business and external financing (i.e. borrowing) is not feasible. In all other cases, capital increases will remain the prerogative of the General Assembly. It was further clarified that while the Board may freely determine the terms of any increase, it cannot restrict or exclude the preemptive rights of existing shareholders. For the record, Donkey Hotels owns and operates five luxury hotels in Greece with a total of 834 rooms, including four landmark Athens properties — Athenaeum Intercontinental, NEW Hotel, Semiramis Hotel, and Periscope Hotel — as well as NOUS Santorini Hotel (formerly Santorini Image).

US consumer sentiment at rock bottom
-The Wall Street Journal this year again conducted its consumer confidence survey, showing that only 25% of respondents believe they have a “good chance” of improving their standard of living. That’s the lowest figure since the WSJ began this poll in 1987. By comparison, before 2020, the figure hovered between 50% and 60%. A striking 70% believe the “American Dream” does not exist or never did, while 75% are convinced future generations will not live better lives. This pessimism cuts across all social strata: men and women, young and old, graduates and non-graduates, even households earning over $100,000 annually show similar negativity about the future.

Inflation seems to be stabilizing near 2.5%. Growth is slowing but remains positive at 1.8%–1.9% for 2025–2026. Still, key variables — the rising cost of living and higher interest rates — cast a heavy shadow on consumer confidence. In Q1 2025, GDP contracted by 0.5%, the sharpest drop since the pandemic. New tariffs and firms’ rush to front-load price increases drove imports up, widening the trade deficit and heightening the risk of stagflation.

Dollar rate cuts now seen as a given
-The market has begun pricing in a substantial interest rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC monetary policy meeting on September 16–17. While labor market data are not dramatic, they support the case for lowering the cost of money in the US, and traders have increased bets on multiple cuts in the coming months. The probability of no cut in September has now dropped to zero, compared with 3.6% last Thursday. Odds of a half-point cut have entered the mix at 8%. Markets now price in a 92% probability of a quarter-point cut. Looking to December — i.e., the next quarter — probabilities for cuts totaling 75 basis points have surged to 67.9%, while odds of a full one-percentage-point reduction this year have risen from zero to 5.7%.

The Antinero program in von der Leyen’s “State of the Union” speech tomorrow
-On September 10, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will deliver her annual “State of the Union” address to the European Parliament. Reliable sources say she will highlight Greece’s Antinero program, expected to be described as one of the most ambitious and multifaceted forest ecosystem restoration projects in modern Greek history, funded with more than €400 million from NextGenerationEU and the Recovery Fund. It is a forest protection initiative, with extensive clean-ups and firebreak creation. The procurement process is being run by the HCAP’s Project Preparation Facility (PPF). This is the largest targeted European intervention for wildfire prevention, anti-erosion and anti-flood works, aiming to enhance — in both quality and quantity — the resilience of Greek forests to the impacts of the climate crisis.