Hello, today I won’t start with the government, just for a change, but with what’s happening in the opposition. So, somewhere it was reported (I’m not saying it’s bad, journalists are supposed to write…) that Tsipras is having second thoughts and may not dare to go ahead, which, as you can imagine, gave us quite a scare. Well, no, categorically not—the information that Tsipras will back down is not true, and my source is first-class. The next two polls from reliable firms measure him at 8%–10% in the “yes, I will vote for him” category, and up to 20% in the potential (I could, etc.) category, the same source tells me. So our leader will indeed move forward, but without changing his plan, which means around the beginning of the new year.

Inflation

On Monday, there was a meeting at M.M. about inflation, attended by the relevant ministers, but I’m not writing this as news since you’ve already read it in the media. What’s more important is how the government’s staff and M.M. themselves “read” the major issue of inflation, which will ultimately decide—barring surprises—the outcome of the elections whenever they are held. Inflation has three main pillars:
a) The supermarket, where no matter what small interventions are made, the situation can improve somewhat, but not in a way very visible to the consumer. True, the “shelf price index” has stopped galloping for months now, it’s high but doesn’t seem to be rising further.
b) Energy costs, which can also be contained, since international prices are currently not at their peak (in fact, they’re almost steadily dropping). If retail prices for electricity and fuel don’t adjust to wholesale prices, K.M. has said—not once—that he will intervene. The message has been conveyed to the companies in the sector, and we’re waiting.
c) Where the situation is unmanageable, with no way of control, and which represents households’ biggest monthly expense, is rents—especially in large cities. Mitsotakis knows this very well, and in the coming period he will attempt something radical. If he succeeds—since, I repeat, it’s very difficult—he will make a real difference in the daily lives of a large portion of the population, especially renters.

10–15 MPs

A few days ago I wrote to you about today’s meeting of ND’s parliamentary group, with the agenda of electing Maximos Charakopoulos as secretary, and that it was not planned for MPs to speak. The plan changed, and I inform you that 10–15 MPs will be given the floor, who I imagine will have something to say as well. Of course, as comrade Maximos tells his interlocutors, the mood is not bad, especially after the Thessaloniki Fair, which “warmed up” even some who were worried, but there are still isolated complaints and gripes, mainly about inflation. Notably, there are local issues, as shown for example by Thessaloniki MP Simopoulos, who requested the withdrawal of the provision on the new TIF board lacking representation from the city’s bodies.

Heroics…

I hear that the source of the leak about the surprise military exercise—which was admittedly a surprise—has been found, though M.M. was annoyed by the way it was linked with the NAVTEX for the Piri Reis, which even sparked related discussion in the KYSEA. If you’re not good with leaks, accidents happen. Couldn’t the “source” have asked their predecessor, who was a “master” in such matters?

Papadopoulou–Kimberly

Quite a few interesting tête-à-têtes were noted at the reception in Washington in honor of Patriarch Bartholomew, who is making a round of contacts in the American capital. One of these was Deputy Foreign Minister Alexandra Papadopoulou with Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is arriving in a few weeks. Papadopoulou has traditionally had ties with Washington’s deep state, admittedly closer with the Democrats. Still, she is a seasoned, flexible diplomat, so she and the new ambassador will have plenty to discuss in the period ahead…

Kikilias’ contacts

In Washington too, with his own program, was Shipping Minister Vassilis Kikilias. In addition to meeting Dan Bergam, the U.S. “energy czar,” just days after his Athens visit, he also met with American government officials and, of course, community leaders. He too attended the reception for Bartholomew and spoke with many present, since the shipping portfolio opens quite a few doors across the Atlantic. Let me remind you that the Greek-owned fleet plays a strong role in transporting American LNG, which the Trump administration wants to multiply in Europe’s energy mix. I also found interesting Kikilias’ chat with K.M.’s son Konstantinos, who is based in Washington and, of course, was invited to the reception.

God (of Justice) loves the servicers

Let me start the market news with a coincidence that has an impact on the sector. You may recall a meeting held in August at the Bank of Greece about the Hercules state guarantees, delays in loan recoveries, etc. One of the concerns discussed then was the outcome of a Supreme Court case on whether charges on overdue loans should be applied to the whole loan amount (as happens now) or only to the overdue installment. The worry was that if the Supreme Court ruled that interest must be calculated only on the installment, not the entire loan, losses of around €1.5 billion would result. Now, the word is that this specific ruling will be delayed. The reason is that judges on the panel have retired, and now a new panel must be appointed.

Macquarie in talks on DEDDIE – Two potential investors

Through a messenger and in a polite manner, Macquarie let Dark Room know that the recent column note claiming the Australian group is in discussions to sell its 49% stake in DEDDIE is not true. However, the column insists on its information, which suggests that Macquarie is indeed in talks with institutional players to sell its 49% stake in DEDDIE. Whether negotiations will ultimately be concluded is unknown, but that discussions are taking place is a fact. In addition, I have learned that not only is Macquarie considering the sale of its stake, but another investor has also expressed related interest to the Ministry of Economy.

Lavrio Port: File B to be opened

The countdown has begun for the concession of the majority stake (51%) in the Lavrio Port Authority S.A. File A has already been opened, covering technical matters such as what projects are planned, how the port will be used—commercially or for tourism. By the end of September, File B with the financial bids is expected to be opened. The five international consortia participating in the tender are very powerful, with expertise in construction, tourism, shipping, and transportation. This is big money—or, more institutionally put, major financial players. Specifically, GEK TERNA in partnership with Celestyal Cruises, the consortium of INTERKAT S.A. – Beaufort Sea Shipping Corporation – Newsphone Hellas S.A., OLYMPIC MARINE S.A., owned by shipowner George Prokopiou, together with Cruise Terminal Investment Limited SARL (MSC Cruises, a global cruise giant), Israel Shipyards Industries Ltd., Jet Plan Shipping Co Ltd, part of the Seajets Group of shipowner Marios Iliopoulos.

Counting the €20?

Tourism-sector entrepreneurs claim their turnover has declined after the imposition of the cruise passenger fee, which reaches €20 per visitor in Santorini and Mykonos. The fee’s share varies, since the cruise season extends until November, but it is estimated at 15%–20%. Professional associations, in letters to cruise company management, express their concerns and are looking for solutions to reverse the trend. The problem, as they note, cannot yet be fully documented with concrete consumption data, but the decline in disembarkations is evident and worrying to local businesses. It should be noted that these estimates remain preliminary.

Chania Bank “shares” under the hammer

Electronic auctions don’t just put properties up for grabs—anything imaginable can go under the hammer: boats, cars, machinery, works of art, and even… shares. That’s how equity holdings in the Bank of Chania came under the spotlight. They belonged to the Lassithi Shipping Company S.A. (LANE), which has been in bankruptcy since May 2023. Specifically, 150,005 shares in the cooperative bank were put up for auction last April with a starting price of €778,525.95 (€5.19 per cooperative share), but there was zero interest. This price was based on two valuation reports (November 2024), which came to €774,893 and €781,526 respectively. As noted, considering, among other factors, that LANE has been bankrupt since 08/05/2023, that the Bank of Chania is a cooperative (not listed on an organized market), has activities limited to Crete and Attica, and that the sale process is via auction, the final value was written down by 20%. On July 31, a repeat auction was held at a lower price—¾ of the original—at €583,894.47 (€3.89 per cooperative share), i.e., €194,631.48 less. But again, there were no bidders. Yesterday, Thursday, the gavel fell a third time, with the price reduced further to ½ of the original: €389,262.97 (€2.595 per cooperative share). And—miracle of miracles—several suitors suddenly appeared. As a result, the auction had to be extended from two hours to three. In the end, the shares changed hands, with the final award price reaching €465,500 after successive bids—€76,237 above the starting point.

A special day for the Stock Exchange

Today, Friday, we are expecting many important developments in our market. It begins with the inclusion of Metlen Energy & Metals in the FTSE 100 index, which will bring the first major inflows of capital. Notably, JP Morgan has estimated that the net positive impact from passive funds for Metlen could exceed $400 million. In addition, today we have the triple contract expiration in the derivatives market (indexes and stocks), which usually triggers a lot of “last minute” trading. Then comes the Stoxx index reshuffle: Coca Cola HBC will be included in the Stoxx UK 50, Eurobank will join the Stoxx Emerging Markets Large Cap, TITAN and AIA the Stoxx Emerging Markets Mid Cap, and AKTOR the corresponding Small Cap. At the same time, there is also the FTSE Russell reshuffle: Bank of Cyprus is added to the Large Cap index, ElvalHalcor to the Mid Cap index, and Petropoulos to the Small Cap index. Altogether and simultaneously, this will create a surge of trading activity, which partly explains the hesitation of recent days. That’s just until midday, because in the evening we expect the new “verdict” from Moody’s on Greece’s credit rating. Last March, the American agency upgraded Greece to investment grade, Baa3 with stable outlook. It was the last of the big rating agencies to grant investment grade, marking the full restoration of the country’s credibility in the markets. JPMorgan, however, in its report says it does not expect a new upgrade from Moody’s this Friday, but later. It remains to be seen whether this will be confirmed.

Cenergy reaches new historic highs

Thursday’s Athens Stock Exchange session turned into a one-company show, with Cenergy Holdings as the undisputed star. The nearly 4.5% jump was the best daily performance of the past two months, after +5.3% on July 8. Backed by strong first-half financials, the stock closed at the day’s high of €11.78, a new all-time record. Investor appetite was strong, with turnover exceeding €4.2 million. Another milestone achieved by CENER is market capitalization, which now surpasses €2.5 billion. The stock’s performance this year stands at about +25%. The average target price set by brokerages is €12.65. Cenergy’s rally also benefited parent company Viohalco, which extended its winning streak for a sixth consecutive session. This renewed a two-year high, taking another step toward €7—a level not seen at closing since late August 2023. This year, its stock is up 28%, and the group’s valuation exceeds €1.8 billion.

Greek shipowners go shopping

On the shipbuilding front, Greek shipowners are on fire. A look at their latest moves makes it clear: Angeliki Frangou’s Navios ordered four containerships in South Korea, each with capacity of 2,800 TEU, for a total of $115.1 million. Danaos, owned by Dr. Ioannis Coustas, placed an order at a Chinese yard for two 7,500-TEU containerships. Tsakos Energy Navigation activated an option for one VLCC and signed for another, bringing its total to 3+1 supertankers in Korea. In the secondhand market, Aristides Pittas’ Eurobulk acquired a modern Kamsarmax, while Lou Kollakis’ Chartworld Maritime Management committed to two Capesize vessels for later delivery. A noteworthy point: Eurobulk’s Kamsarmax acquisition reflects strong interest in wind-assisted propulsion technologies.

Intense deliberations at the Ministry of Development

At a discreet distance from the process but with strong real interest, the Ministry of Development is monitoring the discussions among supermarkets, which in a few days will announce a list of 1,000 products with significant price reductions to be maintained for a long period. T. Theodorikakos has given the signal, and now the market’s response is awaited. On the other hand, on Thursday, October 10, the Ministry of Development will launch the evaluation of investment proposals submitted under the first three active regimes of the new Development Law. These are the “Manufacturing–Supply Chain,” “Large Investments,” and “Special Assistance Areas” regimes, with a total budget of €450 million. The guidelines set a strict 90-day deadline for evaluation and approval of projects via a fully digital system. There is also an implementation clause: projects will be excluded within two years if 10% of the investment is not realized. In addition, there is a 10% penalty clause requiring return of aid in case of revocation.

Greece’s first 100% domestic defense fund

The Greek market is preparing to welcome its first—entirely Greek—Defence Dual Use Fund, an innovation with pan-European relevance and capital expected to reach €100 million. Half of the funds are being raised from private investors, all of whom come from the Greek defense industry (i.e., they are manufacturers, not financial investors). The remaining €50 million will come from “sovereign funding,” including institutions such as the European Investment Fund, the European Investment Bank, or even the NATO Investment Fund. The new trend in Europe is undoubtedly “militarized Keynesianism,” with each country creating at least one national venture capital fund to invest in its defense industry. France and Germany already have two each. The Greek Defence Dual Use Fund aims to be an investment vehicle with Greek investors, a Greek management team, and Greek money, financing Greek companies operating in technologies and applications with dual use: both defense and civilian. The fund’s goal is to support the development of strategic clusters specializing in areas such as cybersecurity, energy, logistics, telecommunications, and automated manufacturing.

The…American PPP in Artificial Intelligence

About a month ago, on August 22, President Trump announced that the U.S. government would take a 10% stake in semiconductor company Intel, investing $11.1 billion at an average price of $20.47 per share. In just 27 days, the $11 billion government investment turned into a $5 billion profit, thanks to Intel’s alliance with Nvidia. The announcement of Nvidia’s $5 billion investment in Intel pushed the stock to $33.40, yielding the government a +50% capital gain. The NVIDIA-Intel collaboration focuses on developing customized x86 processors for AI platforms, placing Intel at the forefront of the technological revolution. Now, more details emerge: on August 10, Nvidia and AMD agreed to allocate 15% of chip revenue in China to lift export restrictions. Three days earlier, Trump demanded the resignation of Intel’s CEO, followed by a White House meeting on August 12. Yesterday, Intel added $32 billion to its market capitalization in a single day. In the AI industry, one month is equivalent to years in other sectors.

Germany borrows as if the end of the world is coming

For decades, German public debt stayed below 65% of GDP. No longer. The German government’s decision to increase borrowing in the last quarter by €15 billion, bringing total debt to €425 billion for 2025, reflects a dramatic strategic shift in Berlin. The radical amendment of the constitutional “debt brake” now allows the country to borrow without limits for defense spending above 1% of GDP and to create a €500 billion infrastructure fund. The total package could reach €1 trillion over the next decade. The question now is whether this targeted fiscal expansion can spur growth in Germany. Morgan Stanley estimates additional growth of 0.2% this year and 0.7% in 2026, while long-term GDP could be 2.5% higher by 2035. Debt-to-GDP will rise from 63% today to 73% by 2029, and could reach 100% in the long term. German bond yields jumped sharply to 2.9%.