The €16 billion merger between OPAP and its parent company Allwyn has attracted significant market attention and sparked differing analyses from major international banks. JP Morgan views the transaction as positive for OPAP’s profitability, whereas Citi remains neutral, acknowledging the strategic importance of the merger but warning that it fundamentally changes OPAP’s investment profile.

According to Citi, OPAP is transitioning from a low-risk, high-dividend company into a more leveraged and complex international growth group. Citi estimates the new Allwyn’s equity valuation at €16 billion, with an enterprise value of €21 billion, operating profits near €1.9 billion, and a 2026 earnings multiple of 11x. While Citi expects the deal to boost growth prospects — forecasting EBITDA growth above 10% annually for 2024–2026 — it also foresees lower cash flow stability due to higher investment needs and the integration of new subsidiaries.

Citi projects that OPAP shareholders will receive a €0.50 dividend per share for 2025 and an additional €0.80 after the completion of the transaction. From 2026 onward, management aims for at least €1 per share in annual distributions. However, the dividend yield is expected to drop to around 5%, well below the 11% average of the 2021–2024 period.

Citi concludes that OPAP’s new phase will likely attract growth-oriented investors, while discouraging income-focused institutional holders who favored its historically high and stable payouts.

JP Morgan, on the other hand, maintains an “overweight” rating and a price target of €23 per share, expecting the merger to have a double-digit positive impact on adjusted earnings and free cash flow from the first year after completion, which is projected for Q2 2026.