Timing is everything in diplomacy, and the Kremlin seems to have picked its moment precisely for its new, lengthy phone call with the White House – the eighth in eight months. The conversation took place just hours before US PresidentDonald Trump meets with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, which is scheduled for 8 p.m. Friday (US time).
According to Russian officials, the phone call was described as“positive and productive” and conducted“in a climate of trust.” In fact, it was a nearly 2.5-hour intervention by Vladimir Putin in a last-ditch effort to stop any talk of a possible US Tomahawk cruise missile deployment in Ukraine.
Putin reportedly warned Trump that the Tomahawks – which have a range capable of hitting major Russian cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg – would not materially affect operations in the field, but would destroy the already fragile US-Russia relationship. He also stressed that he knows how important Trump considers maintaining that relationship to be.
According to a Kremlin official, the Russian president praised his US counterpart for his role as a “peacemaker” in the Middle East and elsewhere, leaving open the possibility of new economic agreements. But the most important outcome of the talks was an agreement in principle to hold a second face-to-face summit, this time in Budapest, to resume discussions on ending the war in Ukraine.
This upcoming meeting draws inevitable comparisons with the Alaska summit a few months ago, where despite Trump’s warm welcome to Putin, there were no tangible results in the peace negotiations. But now, after his success in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages, the US president says he can achieve a similar result in Ukraine.
How he will achieve it remains unclear. The Kremlin has shown no inclination to compromise. Despite mounting casualties on the front and increasingly frequent Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, Moscow continues to rule out any end to the war before it achieves its maximum objectives. These include complete control of the occupied Ukrainian territories and the imposition of severe restrictions on the military and foreign policy of a future Ukraine, effectively subordinate to Russian influence.
Nothing in the latest Putin-Trump conversation suggests a change in this stance. However, the Kremlin has realized that personal diplomatic contact and the promise of a temporary success can be just as effective as a real compromise.
Ukrainian officials in Washington believe it was the discussion of the possible Tomahawk mission that forced Putin to return to the dialogue table. In Moscow, however, the assessment is different: that the mere prospect of progress in the peace talks may be enough to persuade Trump, who is desperately seeking a diplomatic success, to moderate his military threats.
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