Pollsters see the under-construction “Tsipras list” as a catalyst in the center-left and left space, as they estimate that the second position in the elections, whenever they happen, is turning into a political thriller: even just hints of creating a new entity allow the former prime minister to pillage SYRIZA, as well as all parties arising from its occasional splits, without sparing PASOK, or even some smaller parties on the Right.

With significant penetration among undecided voters coming from the Left, but also among voters who in recent years chose abstention, the potential appeal of Alexis Tsipras, as recorded in recent polls — for example, MRB for OPEN — far exceeds SYRIZA’s last electoral result under his leadership: 21.8% say they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for him, while in June 2023, he received only 17.8% at the ballot box.

However, the “sure” voters were measured at 9.4%, while those declaring they would “probably” vote for him reach 12.4%. This means that at this time, he does not display sufficient momentum to become the sole opponent of New Democracy, which would negatively impact his endeavor in the event of a second election — which under current conditions seems inevitable — to govern the country.

Regarding this, the support, according to polls, that Alexis Tsipras’s initiative would receive from dissatisfied New Democracy voters is minimal; these voters fill the pool of undecided votes, which has exceeded 23% of the electorate in most surveys.

Despite the 6.5 years of government wear recorded in the qualitative data of all polls, the ruling party continues to maintain a comfortable double-digit lead in voting intentions, as does the prime minister in suitability for premiership — indeed, the creation of a political entity by Alexis Tsipras could even act as a unifying factor for New Democracy.

However, this does not mean that the ruling party has a clear horizon in its effort for a third single-party term: all information, as well as the public actions of Antonis Samaras, indicate that the former prime minister has not been convinced about creating a new party.

Low Base
So far, polls show a clearly lower momentum than Tsipras’s initiative — it is telling that the last MRB poll recorded only 3.4% of those absolutely ready to vote for a new party, but there is also 12.5% who say they would “probably” vote for it, a potential voting share equal to Alexis Tsipras’s, but without the core that is nearly three times larger than Samaras’s. According to the surveys, a new party under Antonis Samaras could claim a marginal share from dissatisfied New Democracy right-wingers, but mainly from Kyriakos Velopoulos’s Greek Solution, Voice of Reason, and Victory.

In such a scenario, the former prime minister would not become the main pole of the post-New Democracy Right but could take critical votes from the ruling party. However, the low starting base carries the risk of collapse before the ballot, especially if Tsipras’s presence “awakens” anti-SYRIZA reflexes among conservative voters.

The elephant in the room
Recent polls also reveal the “elephant in the room”: Maria Karystianou, the mother-symbol of the Tempi tragedy, who garners very high personal approval ratings: the figure reaches 50% in the latest MRB poll — far above any (political) figure in the country, as only one in four expresses an unfavorable opinion of her. Moreover, potential votes for a party under Karystianou, who has not ruled out political involvement, peak at 32.2% in the same MRB survey, meaning she would immediately secure second place in the polls.

However, in the same poll, only 15.7% encourage Karystianou to form her own party, while 13.1% would like her to join an existing party or a new entity but not as leader. In such a fluid situation, no forecast can yet be made regarding the impact of her final decision.

Survival win “even by one vote” for PASOK against Tsipras
The battle PASOK faces against the “Tsipras party” for second place in the first round of upcoming national elections looks like a life-or-death gamble, as failure would close any window for claiming dominance in the center-left.

The relevant “confessions” come even from officials who supported Androulakis’s reelection last year and bet on the initial polling surge. At that time, there was no scenario for Tsipras’s return — only the echo of internal SYRIZA conflicts after successive splits.

Today, the game changes, becoming increasingly competitive, while the declared goal of “winning even by one vote” seems more realistic not in the contest with New Democracy, but in the fierce race with the “phantom party,” i.e., Tsipras, for who will cross the center-left finish line first. Polls show single-digit shares currently for voters who say they would definitely vote for a Tsipras party, yet political analysts carefully reading the data see that his initiative could overtake PASOK — possibly quickly — which still records around 13%-15%.

“Your death, my life”
This scenario convinces PASOK’s various factions that the battle with the “Tsipras party” must be fought on the principle of “your death, my life.” Even awkward attempts to appeal to the center-left electorate have not swayed broader voter groups, and Nikos Androulakis’s “suitability for prime minister” rating remains around 7%, many points behind Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

If PASOK had been on a steady upward trajectory since last fall, it could have halted Tsipras’s plans and rightfully claimed the role of strong opposition, ultimately competing for governance against Mitsotakis’s New Democracy. From the government’s decline, PASOK appears to gain little, nor does it surge in rural areas (like Northern Greece), where voter leakage from New Democracy to opposition parties is constant.

In attracting “couch” voters, PASOK has made no remarkable progress, while Tsipras is fishing in the same pool. “The strategy of absorption through dominance could have been unique and useful until yesterday, as it seems only a matter of time before we face a competitor who could possibly do it better,” says an experienced PASOK official, noting that “who survives among the two will be decided at the first polls.” Clearly, if PASOK comes out second, it could hope for leadership of the space; if the “Tsipras party” comes second or close, Chariolou Trikoupi may enter a “SYRIZA-like” state of intense internal conflict and splits.

“If I listened to the ‘needle,’ I wouldn’t have run for mayor and wouldn’t have won,” is the indirect response Haris Doukas gives when asked if PASOK’s polling picture can improve. Doukas, who does not avoid shots at Androulakis when he disagrees with choices, emphasizes that “unity in practice” can activate PASOK’s many forces — last year, for example, six leadership candidates mobilized 370,000 people to vote nationwide. Is the game in Chariolou Trikoupi opening up? The exclusion of Doukas-aligned officials (like close associate Christos Protopapas) from congress committees overshadowed and challenged Androulakis’s initial move to include, besides former PM George Papandreou, the five leadership candidates (Doukas, Geroulanos, Katrini, Anna Diamantopoulou, and Nadia Giannakopoulou), Kostas Skandalidis, and other frontline officials.

Main opponent
Outside the Political Secretariat, however, Manolis Christodoulakis was left — appointed to the Organizing Committee — whom Androulakis-aligned officials still see as a main opponent in PASOK’s next internal battles. Within the congress — start date unknown (toward late February) — tough battles are expected, not only between “mechanisms” but also over open issues. Doukas has called for an open congress with high standards: he wants PASOK to lead and is against collaboration with New Democracy, while saying “yes” to dialogue with progressive forces and the Tsipras party. Pavlos Geroulanos also leans toward the “progressive model,” while Anna Diamantopoulou answers that post-election cooperation dilemmas will depend on the political balances that emerge. All agree, however, that if PASOK loses the center-left lead, “we all lose together,” so the leadership must open Chariolou Trikoupi’s doors to everyone and launch a coordinated campaign to reclaim lost center-left ground.