It should be noted that the German ratings agency was the first to grant Greece investment grade in August 2023, and upgraded the rating further within investment grade in December 2024.

The improvement in the resilience of the Greek economy, the preservation of fiscal discipline and the reduction in debt are the main drivers behind Scope’s decision to revise the outlook to positive.

High debt, structural constraints to growth and a persistent external balance deficit remain key challenges, the agency notes.

The revision to the outlook reflects:

1. Improved resilience to external shocks. The Greek economy has shown steady growth and resilience to shocks in recent years, with growth of around 2% in 2025, higher than most other eurozone countries. Strong domestic demand, a dynamic tourism sector and EU-funded investment under the NGEU programme continue to support growth, while reforms in public administration, taxation and the labour market strengthen competitiveness. The banking sector has also strengthened further, bolstering financial stability.
2. Strong debt dynamics supported by prudent fiscal management. Greece’s public finances continue to outperform fiscal targets, with a general government surplus of around 0.6% of GDP and a primary surplus close to 3.6% forecast for 2025. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall from around 145% in 2025 to 122% by 2030 thanks to conservative budgeting, strong revenue performance and moderate nominal GDP growth. The government maintains a significant cash buffer of around €42 billion (roughly 17% of GDP) and benefits from a debt structure with long maturities and low cost.

Challenges to the credit rating include:

1. Very high public debt, which remains a long-term weakness despite its declining path
2. Structural constraints to medium-term growth, such as limited economic diversification and adverse demographics
3. External imbalances, given persistent current account deficits and a negative net international investment position, as well as remaining challenges in the financial sector reflecting the strong sovereign-bank nexus and the large stock of non-performing loans still managed by servicers.

Improved economic resilience

Scope notes that Greece’s improved resilience to external shocks is supported by more stable growth, ongoing reform momentum, and strengthening financial resilience.

The Greek economy withstood the war in Ukraine and the energy price shock better than most European countries, thanks to low dependence on Russian natural gas, rapid diversification of energy supplies and strong services exports — especially tourism.

After steady growth of about 2.3% in 2024, the economy posted annual growth of 2.0% in the first half of 2025, with full-year growth expected at around 2.2%, supported by strong domestic demand, investment and robust services activity which offset the weaker external environment.