Scope Ratings maintains a positive outlook for Greece in its European Country Outlook for 2026, confirming that the country continues to distinguish itself in the Eurozone for its resilience and consistent implementation of reforms.

The reference to the Greek economy within the report is substantial. Scope highlights that the November upgrade reflects improved macroeconomic stability, tight fiscal management and a significant strengthening of the investment cycle, supported by the Recovery Fund. The picture that emerges is of a country that continues to move away from the European hotspots of fiscal weakness and closer to the investment grade upper tier.

On the fiscal side, Scope highlights the fact that Greece is systematically exceeding targets. A surplus of 0.6% of GDP is forecast for the general government in 2025, while the primary balance is projected at 3.6%, thanks to strong revenue performance and conservative budgeting.

Based on this performance, the picture for 2026 remains positive: the house expects a near-balance position and maintenance of high primary surpluses, which underpin the impressive debt deceleration.

Government debt, estimated at 145% of GDP in 2025, is projected to fall to around 122% in 2030, supported by both moderate nominal growth and multi-year NGEU-related investments, while the government’s excellent maturity profile and high liquidity continue to act as a cushion of protection.