Ukrainian and European officials exhaled—briefly—when they managed to “soften” President Donald Trump’s abrupt, pro-Russian proposal to end the nearly four-year war. Truth be told, the softening was not dramatic. And the relief did not last. Behind the scenes, the central question looms larger than ever: what is Vladimir Putin himself prepared to accept? The answer to that question will determine whether the diplomatic storm of recent days has any chance of moving, or whether it is merely another rotation in a process that has resembled a geopolitical “merry-go-round” since Trump took office.

Moscow Sees Time, Not Pressure

Putin appears ready—and perhaps even comfortable—to continue the war. For months, the United States has effectively granted him both space and time to reorganize his military and political footing. Despite significant losses and economic strain, he reads the battlefield differently: Ukraine is retreating, losing ground, entangled in internal scandals, and scrambling for manpower and resources.

At the same time, American support is visibly thinning. From the Kremlin’s vantage point, all this signals opportunity, not threat. The asymmetry of effort favors Russia—and Putin knows it.

Moscow’s Demands

Putin’s core requirements remain consistent and uncompromising:

• A binding commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO.

• A halt to any further eastward expansion of the Alliance.

• Restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities.

• Special protections for the Russian language and the Church.

• Full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—not neutral zones, not “grey” compromises.

For Moscow, these demands are fundamental and non-negotiable.

European Irritation and the American Backlash

The original 28-point U.S. proposal included provisions granting Russia influence over European security architecture. Europeans reacted immediately and sharply. Washington was forced to move those points “to another table.”

Kyiv, meanwhile, pushed for border negotiations to begin at the current frontline and openly rejected limits on its military capacity. Moscow dismissed European counter-proposals as “not productive” and insisted that any deviation from the Alaska framework agreement would be dead on arrival.

The situation, in other words, does not resemble the festive “Thanksgiving table” Trump has invoked. Instead, it looks like a process designed to induce fatigue and deadlock—both among Ukraine’s allies and within Kyiv itself—rather than a serious attempt to define principles for a real settlement.

The Points Putin Will Not Accept

Even the plan viewed as “pro-Russian” crosses some of Putin’s red lines. It allows for a larger Ukrainian military than Moscow demanded in 2022. It does not restrict Ukraine’s armaments in the way Russia wants. And it envisions using frozen Russian assets in the West to rebuild Ukraine—a proposal the Kremlin rejects outright.

As Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov put it: “Some of it is acceptable, but not all.”

The Trump–Putin Game

Steve Whitcoff is returning to Moscow. The U.S. Secretary of the Army, Daniel Driscoll, is meeting Ukrainian officials. Putin seeks a deeper relationship with Trump, hoping for sanctions relief, economic openings, and strategic advantage. But he will not trade away the core objectives that justify the war.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to absorb Ukrainian strikes on oil and military infrastructure. Trump threatened a Tomahawk strike before backing down—another pattern Moscow believes it can read and exploit.

The Kremlin may not even want a deal at this stage. If the secret understandings reached in Alaska last August collapse again into stalemate, Moscow expects U.S. support for Kyiv to erode further. Such a development could accelerate Ukraine’s internal deterioration. A U.S. withdrawal—viewed by Moscow as almost mechanical—would leave Kyiv reliant solely on European military aid and financing, just as the harshest winter since the war began arrives.

At this level of diplomacy—quiet, opaque, and operating far from public view—very little verified information exists.

The Diplomatic Carousel

In the end, we may simply be witnessing a familiar cycle: the sudden diplomatic opening, the flurry of activity, the illusion of momentum—and then the abrupt halt. The carousel stops exactly where it started. The war grinds on.

Putin believes he has time.
Ukraine feels perpetually on the defensive.
Europe continues to wonder whether the next initiative will shoot upward only to fall just as quickly, returning to the same stagnant position—like the brightly painted horses on Christmas carousels that animate markets but provide no real movement.

Wherever this war eventually ends, it will reshape Ukraine, Europe, and the wider world in ways that will be profound and far from linear.