• National Bank of Greece (NBG): Outperform, price target €15.8
• Eurobank: Outperform, price target €4.5 — Top pick
• Piraeus Bank: Neutral, price target €7.8
• Alpha Bank: Underperform, price target €3.1

Eurobank: Remains Outperform – revenue diversification undervalued

Eurobank retains its Outperform rating and €4.5 price target, with Autonomous calling it the preferred choice among Greek banks. The firm believes the market underestimates Eurobank’s international presence and its ability to generate fee income, especially from asset & wealth management and bancassurance.

Autonomous notes that its earnings estimates for Eurobank are above consensus, mainly due to higher expected fee income, while valuation remains attractive at 7.3x P/E for 2027.

National Bank of Greece: Upgraded to Outperform, capital as a key driver

The upgrade of NBG to Outperform is the main change in Autonomous’ report. The firm highlights that NBG has the largest capital surplus in the Greek banking sector—nearly €2 billion, equal to about 16% of its market cap. Based on this, Autonomous raises its payout estimates to 70% in 2025 and 80% in 2026, levels it believes can be achieved without limiting the bank’s strategic flexibility.

The €15.8 price target corresponds to 8.5x P/E for 2027, and on a capital-adjusted basis the multiple falls to 7.2x, significantly reducing the premium relative to its Greek peers.

Piraeus Bank: Neutral after re-rating

For Piraeus Bank, Autonomous maintains a Neutral rating with a €7.8 price target. Although the bank continues to show strong organic profitability and high credit growth, the firm believes that much of the positive momentum is already priced in, limiting further upside.

The completion of the acquisition of its insurance operations has already brought the CET1 ratio close to management’s target, which — according to Autonomous — limits the potential for positive surprises in terms of capital deployment.

Alpha Bank: Underperform despite improvement in metrics

Alpha Bank remains the only Greek bank rated Underperform, with a price target of €3.1. Autonomous acknowledges the improvement in organic profitability, but believes market expectations for net interest income are overly optimistic, with the firm’s projections significantly below consensus. As a result, it sees increased risk of negative surprises, reducing investment appeal at current valuation levels.