Greetings, the government yesterday made a bold opening toward our beloved farmers so that all together—and each individually—can have a good Christmas in their homes or their villages or at winter resorts. Even if Tsiaras did not go yesterday to M.M., from the moment the government received the farmers’ demands it decided to prepare a serious basis for dialogue, in order to remove from the roadblocks the argument of an unclear discussion framework. For the first time, therefore, tax-free fuel at the pump entered the equation (wow), on which Tsiaras has been working behind the scenes for some time with Pitsilis of the AADE. Also, there is discussion with PPC about agricultural electricity, although Stassis has clear reservations regarding his own production cost. And at M.M., I understand that they say the farmers heard positively the message about changes to the ELGA regulation, so that they are compensated 100% for the damage they suffer—something they have been asking for for years. It is obvious that the government wanted to “break” the KKE line at the roadblocks, which is hard, since the others who are not organized in Perissos have nothing to gain if they do not engage in discussion.

The meeting with Mitsotakis

The farmers will obviously make their decisions and decide their next steps, and given that the door of Hatzidakis, as well as of Tsiaras, remains open for dialogue. I hear, however, that since yesterday quite a few, especially in the Thessalian plain, are “looking into” the schedule of K.M. I wrote it yesterday, I repeat it today: from Friday midday and through the weekend Mitsotakis will be in Athens, having returned from Brussels and before leaving for Israel, therefore there is a time window. Until last night K.M. was considering whether to make a political reference to the issue during his speech at the closing of the budget debate or something more. I think it will depend on the outcome of the issue and, of course, on how the farmers react.

Relieving the MPs

The appearance of Tsiaras and the description of specific interventions that the government can make to address, more long-term and not only in a firefighting manner, the cost of production that is squeezing farmers, also gives an additional argument to ND MPs, who complain that they are “taking a beating” in their constituencies. At the recent parliamentary group meeting they were of course… quiet, but with a view also to their appointment with Mitsotakis on Wednesday afternoon at M.M., the government wants them to have some footing as well.

Will Stefanos shut it down or not?

After months I say I’ll write something about that poor Stefanos, since as I understand it, after party operatives inflated his ego that he was about to go to Maximos, they have now left him holding the bag. Something like the old shell-game men. So he came out the other day and pre-announced an extraordinary conference for the “Movement of Democracy” in February, where substantive decisions will be taken about the continuation of its course. Or not—are we closing the shop? The obvious goal remains to get the party into Parliament, but it’s not exactly “taking off” either. Many say that in this move they see a tactical maneuver on his part, so that party members approve the prospect of governmental collaborations after the elections, so the party can play the role of the “wild card.” Kasselakis himself, moreover, the other day left open the possibility even of cooperation with ND, though not with Mitsotakis. I, however, believe that even if Peanut told him to, he would go running, because he got a taste for the grandeur—but well… he isn’t a shipowner either.

The Swiss-franc loan regulation goes to Parliament on Thursday 18/12

We move to the market, starting with what is most interesting for the public, namely the regulation by the Minister of Economy K. Pierrakakis for Swiss-franc loans. It is a bold regulation that concerns all borrowers with or without criteria and is graduated according to the size of the haircut. The news is that the relevant provisions are being submitted to Parliament the day after tomorrow, Thursday 18/12. As we said, the regulations for Swiss-franc loans concern everyone, people with assets and without. However, the size of the haircut will vary, related to the Swiss-franc–euro exchange rate. For the “well-off,” that is, borrowers without income criteria, the haircut is standard—i.e., 15% below the Swiss-franc–euro exchange rate level—and a fixed interest rate of 2.90%. The first category starts at income of €7,500 and ends at €22,000; the second starts at €9,375 and ends at €25,250. Of course, this large gradation also provides for asset criteria and also counts deposits. Finally, dominant is the picture with regard to the number of household members. For each of the three categories the haircut is 50%, 30% or 20%, respectively, and interest rates of 2.30%, 2.50% and 2.70%, respectively. The gradation has multiple aims: to offer a fair and sustainable solution for borrowers, linked to their capabilities, which however will not excessively burden the banking system and will ensure zero burden with regard to Hercules.

Pavlos Mylonas’s “silent” deal for the silverware

Let’s start the business news with National Bank and P. Mylonas. The entire market has its eyes on him waiting for the bank’s deals in the insurance sector. In the meantime, however, Mylonas made an important deal, with an impact on the balance sheet… but he avoids (wisely) opening his mouth. Specifically, on 8/12 the agreement with Prodea of National Bank and Papalekkas was announced. First of all, although they were announced simultaneously as two separate deals, they are only formally so, because I must tell you that Papalekkas has an excellent relationship with National Bank, which values and particularly trusts him as a businessman, from the moment that when Papalekkas sold in Romania, he showed up on Aiolou with a check with a three-digit number to repay the borrowed funds. With the National Bank–Prodea agreement, 100 properties (mainly offices and shops) that were leased by National Bank itself passed under National Bank’s control for a consideration of €510 million (according to information, about half is the value of loans that burdened the properties). These are the “silverware” of the former Pangaea that the Turkollias–Christodoulou management sold in 2013 without a tender to the then Invel of Steinmetz–Papachristophorou for €640 million. Shortly thereafter international warrants began to be issued for Steinmetz, who also withdrew from Invel. Information is that in 2013, to pay part of the €640 million, Invel took a loan from National Bank. Indeed, the then management of National Bank showed such magnanimity that it revised the leases of the properties it used to levels outside the market, so that the servicing of the loan would work. Thus P. Mylonas, with the agreement expected to close by May 2026, significantly reduces National Bank’s operating expenses. The leases with the high rents were expiring in 2028. Therefore, expect from next year that NBG will significantly reduce operating costs with the 100 properties, while other purchases of NBG properties that belonged to Pangaea have also preceded.

National Bank and insurance companies

Now, regarding National Bank’s collaborations in the insurance field, if I have understood correctly, they will be announced late January–early February. Everything is agreed and arranged with Piraeus Bank, but there must be certain legal issues with exclusivities that require some time to resolve. National Bank’s cooperation in the life sector is a given with NN in a scheme of common interests. For the non-life sector the picture is not as clear, with Allianz having had a lead, which however is not certain. So patience and we’ll see.

H. Megalou on Abu Dhabi and Euroxx

In a meeting he had yesterday with journalists, the CEO of Piraeus Bank, on the occasion of his recent presence at a conference in Abu Dhabi, answering a relevant question said that the bank is examining the possibility of opening offices in Abu Dhabi. Regarding the information recently published about an acquisition by Piraeus Bank of Euroxx, Mr. H. Megalou said that there is nothing, if there is it will be announced, adding that in any case now with the inclusion of the Athens Exchange in Euronext, brokerage schemes need to grow.

What they discussed yesterday at the Bank of Greece: servicers ask the authorities for data on 2.5 million citizens

Knots in the debt market are being untied as procedures move forward that fall under the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of Justice in order to resolve critical issues in the debt management market and allow a larger number of properties to enter the real estate market, from those managed by servicers and banks. The issues were discussed at yesterday’s meeting of the Working Committee under the supervision of the Bank of Greece. According to what the representatives of the servicers, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Greece said yesterday, there appears to be progress in reducing the time required to complete registrations in the Cadastre and in digitizations so as ultimately to reduce the time for issuing court decisions. This year, planning authorities are being integrated into the Cadastre, a development that will bring results although it needs some months of “maturation” of procedures. Also, procedures are advancing so that what the Katseli Law (3869) provides can be applied, namely that when a debtor has included debt secured by real estate in the favorable Katseli provisions and at the same time has other properties, these must be liquidated. This provision, although provided for by law, has not been applied to date. Note that the request that servicers have put forward is to obtain contact details of 2,500,000 relationships by using the data held by the Authorities, something that is under relevant processing.

An alliance of Mytilineos–Savvidis is gestating for the “new Toumba”

The Belterra–METKA agreement for the project of expanding Pier 6 at the Port of Thessaloniki seems to be opening the way for another one as well, that of constructing the “new Toumba.” Market information reports that an announcement is imminent of the creation of a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be founded by Ivan Savvidis, with initial share capital of €10 million. Based on the Memorandum signed by PAOK FC and PAOK AC, the new stadium will be built with financing entirely from the Savvidis side. This means that Ivan will be able to agree himself with any private or public company he chooses. Thus, the appointment of METKA as the construction company becomes very likely, especially given its “experience,” from METKA’s participation in the consortium for the construction of Panathinaikos’s new stadium in Votanikos, together with AKTOR and TERNA.

Sweeping changes to the BoD of ATHEX by Euronext – Who stays

The Greek Stock Exchange is gradually entering the Euronext orbit. The countdown for the critical extraordinary general meeting of ATHEX shareholders, which will take place just before Christmas, on December 22, has already begun, and one of the key issues is the change of the Board of Directors. Individuals chosen by Stéphane Boujnah, CEO of Euronext, will enter management, while the new BoD will have 11 members. The re-election of Giannos Kontopoulos as CEO is proposed, and Giorgos Doukidis, Nikolaos Krenteras and Xenia Kazoli are to remain as independent non-executive members. From there on, a number of senior Euronext executives will join the BoD, specifically Manuela Bassi (CEO of Euronext Technologies and Head of Client Connectivity & Colocation Services at Euronext), Camille Beudin (a member of the Executive Committee and Chief Diversification Officer), Sebastien d’Herbès (head of the integration of ATHEX into Euronext), Giorgio Modica (CFO of Euronext) and Emilie Rieupeyroux (head of Market Strategy, Cash Equities & Data Services at Euronext). Beyond that, the plans for Euronext Athens are many and ambitious. Stéphane Boujnah has outlined some of them, specifically the creation of a “corridor” so that Greek shipping companies listed abroad, with a single order book and a single point of entry in Athens, can be listed on the domestic market, as well as plans for the energy sector and the Energy Exchange. Of course, the plans also include the creation of a hub in Athens, something that has already been preannounced. And of course, before all this, the new BoD will have to deal with the “legal arbitrage” being attempted by the Maltese fund Praude Asset Management of Italian lawyer Massimo Malvestio, who wants to sell dearly his 9% stake in ATHEX.

There is only one… Natasa – Now also in real estate

Among those forming real estate companies, I single out an already… distinctive presence, the popular folk singer Natasa Theodoridou, who, as I was informed, also proceeded last Friday to the establishment of the company “NT Land Resort Real Estate Exploitation S.A.”, with the name obviously deriving from her initials. The company is headquartered on Mimnermou Street in the Rigillis area, and its purpose includes the purchase and sale of real estate and plots, construction of buildings, hotels and similar accommodations, among others. Its initial capital was set at €1,100,000, divided into 22,000 corporate units of capital contributions, with a nominal value of €50 each, and it was fully paid up upon incorporation. These corporate units represent partners’ contributions as follows: Anastasia Theodoridou paid €550,000 in cash and received 11,000 corporate units, with a nominal value of €50 each. The company under the name “Anastasia Theodoridou & Co. EE,” based in Kifisia, paid €440,000 in cash and received 8,800 corporate units, with a nominal value of €50 each. The company under the name “Aeolus NRGBC I.K.E.” paid €110,000 in cash and received 2,200 corporate units, with a nominal value of €50 each. The management of the company and the handling of corporate affairs in general were assumed for an indefinite period by the popular singer herself, who beyond the musical staff clearly aspires to… a gold record in real estate as well.

The Derivatives Market “protected” Piraeus Bank shareholders

It has long been known that as of today, Piraeus Bank shares cease trading on the Stock Exchange in order to complete the corporate transformation involving the absorption of the subsidiary by the parent company. The new shares are scheduled to start trading next Monday, December 22. In view of this interruption, a small game emerged in the Derivatives Market. The Exchange’s management announced that the December Futures Contracts (Futures) of Piraeus Bank will not close next Friday, December 19, as with all other shares and indices, but 10 days later, on Monday, December 29. In addition, ATHEX announced—suddenly—that the margin on the December futures of Piraeus Bank is increased from 14% to 20%. Obviously, ATHEX’s decision was taken in an attempt to protect investors from extreme fluctuations, but in other corresponding cases (e.g. Eurobank) no similar “protection” was announced. The result, however, was a wave of liquidations by those who could not meet the increased requirements of the Derivatives Market.

TITAN’s port strategy

Ten months ago, in February, TITAN sold 75% of Adocim in Eastern Turkey, collecting $87.5 million. A few days ago, TITAN bought Traçim in the Istanbul area, paying $190 million. The big difference lies in the ports. Adocim in Anatolia is located far from ports and serves only the local market. By contrast, Traçim, with capacity of 2.5 million tons annually, is located in Western Turkey near the ports of Marmara and serves not only a densely populated area of Istanbul, but also a significant export portfolio. One month ago, TITAN entered into exclusive negotiations for the acquisition of Vracs de L’Estuaire at the port of Le Havre, in Northern France. In addition to the modern grinding plant with annual capacity of 1.2 million tons, Vracs de L’Estuaire has direct access to the largest port of France with destination Paris and central France, one of the largest and fastest-growing markets in Europe. The strategy is obvious and the market rewards it by raising TITAN’s market capitalization to €3.64 billion (€46.7 per share).

Low tones from Piraeus Port Authority on Elefsina

With interest but without the slightest sign of concern, the new management of Piraeus Port Authority S.A., under its new chairman Han Chao, appears to be monitoring the government initiatives for upgrading the port of Elefsina. According to information, at the port of Piraeus the view prevails that Elefsina is not coming “head-on,” but can function complementarily, strengthening the Greek port system overall. In the corridors of PPA it is said that the main objective is not internal competition, but strengthening Greece’s role as an international logistics hub. In this context, every investment that improves infrastructure and creates new possibilities in ship repair and cargo handling is considered a positive development for the entire shipping and port “ecosystem.” Particular importance is also attached to the political environment. As well-informed sources note, recently tensions between China and the U.S. regarding Greek ports appear to be easing. This creates a calmer international “corridor,” within which the government can promote investments without the pressures and dilemmas of the past. At PPA they estimate that this balance also facilitates their own strategy: investments in Piraeus, openness to synergies, and at the same time support for a national supply chain that does not rely on a single port. The message being sent, according to the same information, is clear: more and better infrastructure means a bigger pie for everyone.

Paschalis Diamantidis picks up the pace

Three years after his first move into bulkers, Paschalis Diamantidis is steadily expanding the fleet of Velos Dry with the purchase of another Japanese-built vessel. The 80,700-dwt Key Frontier (built 2011), a kamsarmax, is changing hands from Nippo Shipping for nearly $18.5 million, with delivery scheduled for February–March 2026. This is the second acquisition of Velos Dry in 2025, following the summer deal for the 95,600-dwt post-panamax Azalea Wave (built 2013) from Santoku Senpaku at $17 million. The direction is clear: Velos Dry is investing in Japanese-controlled second-hand tonnage, with vessels built between 2011–2015 and with a preference for panamaxes, kamsarmaxes and post-panamaxes. The company’s fleet now reaches six bulkers, half of which are kamsarmaxes. Diamantidis’ choice is not random: Velos Dry moves with steady, gradual and selective steps, avoiding intense, short-term sale-and-purchase market activity. This strategy is proving correct, especially as kamsarmaxes have recently shown more restrained performance compared to the larger capesizes, a fact also reflected in the limited number of second-hand transactions in recent weeks.

When G.P. doesn’t waste time

Dynagas LNG Partners, the New York–listed company of George Prokopiou (G.P.), does not waste time. After the completion of a previous buyback in which only $2.18 million of shares were purchased, it is launching a new $10 million share repurchase program, showing that its strategy is not only steady but also hands-on. Purchases will be made periodically, either on the open market or through privately negotiated deals, keeping the company flexible and the balance sheet lean. With six vessels on multi-year charters and total carrying capacity of 914,000 cbm, Dynagas maintains stable cash flow, while quarterly net profits amounted to $18.7 million, up from $15.1 million last year. This move comes at a time when other Greek- and Cypriot-interest listed companies, such as Safe Bulkers of Polys Vassos Hatzioannou and OceanPal of Semiramis Paliou, are running large share buyback programs totaling $62 million, sending the message that Greek shipowners know how to return capital to shareholders.

Waiting for the markets’ Santa Claus

The first 15 days of December are being recorded as the best two weeks of the last 75 years for Wall Street. While institutional investors are selling to lock in profits (and their annual bonuses), retail investors—who account for 20% of the average daily trading value in the U.S. market—continue to buy, having placed their expectations on the famous and statistically confirmed “Santa Claus Rally.” History and statistics confirm that from as far back as 1929 until today, the S&P 500 index has recorded gains in 79% of cases during this specific holiday period, with an average return of +1.6%. Usually, the Santa Claus Rally refers to the last 5 sessions of December and the first 2 of January. Since 1950, the positive return has been repeated with the same frequency (79%) and with an average gain of +1.3%. Over the last 8 years, the index declined only once during this period. Today in the U.S. market, retail investors carry out 75% of their trades via mobile phones. A +47% increase is already recorded in the downloading of trading apps. It is also striking that 41% of Gen Z and Millennial investors listen carefully to the advice of digital Artificial Intelligence trading advisors.

Germans pay dearly for their loans

The ten-year German bond today “pays” 2.86%. Inflation in Germany is below 1.8%. Conclusion: investor-savers who buy German bonds are not worried about inflation, but have doubts about the ability to repay the debt and therefore demand a risk premium of around 1.7%. Germany’s public debt this year has reached 63.5% of GDP, next year it is estimated at 65.2% of GDP, and in 2027 at 67% of GDP. State spending on defense, energy and new social programs is putting pressure on the budget, while the famous “golden rule” of debt has been loosened. The constitutional reform of March 2025 excludes from the “golden rule” all defense spending above 1% of GDP. A Special Infrastructure Fund of €500 billion is being created for the necessary infrastructure investments, while the government announced new tax relief for businesses and households. In addition to all this, demographics geometrically increase social spending. The fiscal deficit this year will exceed 3% and next year will rise to 4% of GDP. All this—of course—is neither dramatic nor does it foreshadow disaster. The once “safe investment haven” of Europe that served as the basis for measuring investment risk has today become more expensive.

An ounce of silver is worth as much as a barrel of oil

Three years ago, oil was five times more expensive than the despised silver. Today, one ounce of silver ($63.80) is worth more than a barrel of WTI crude oil ($57.30). The year 2025 will be recorded as the worst year for oil (-20%) since the pandemic crisis. For silver, 2025 will be the best year since 1979 (+115%). The new “green” economy requires abundant silver (photovoltaics, electric vehicles, 5G, and AI data centers), while production cannot meet increased demand for a third consecutive year. OPEC+ countries cannot, or perhaps do not want to, coordinate. Countries that produce silver (Mexico, Peru, China) acquire increased geostrategic importance. For more than 150 years, the global economy carefully and with awe studied international oil prices. Today everyone is searching for alternative energy sources.