Washington is moving closer to a large-scale military confrontation with Tehran than the American public appears to realize, according to sources closely monitoring developments. If talks held in Geneva fail to produce a breakthrough, military operations could begin imminently, with far-reaching consequences for the Middle East and for the remainder of Donald Trump’s term in office.

Unlike last month’s limited precision operation in Venezuela, a potential military campaign against Iran is expected to last days or even weeks and more closely resemble a full-scale war. Sources told Axios that the operation could be conducted jointly by the United States and Israel and would be far broader—and existential for the Iranian regime—than last June’s 12-day conflict, in which the U.S. later intervened to destroy underground nuclear facilities.

The absence of widespread public debate in the United States—amid congressional and media focus on domestic issues—has created an unusual information vacuum around what could become the most significant U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in more than a decade.

Diplomacy and military pressure

In early January, President Trump reportedly came close to authorizing strikes against Iran following the regime’s violent suppression of protests. When that window closed, the administration adopted a two-track strategy: reviving nuclear negotiations while simultaneously overseeing a major military buildup in the region.

That delay, combined with the scale of the U.S. military deployment, has raised expectations that any eventual operation would be extensive should diplomacy fail. According to officials, prospects for a deal currently appear slim based on recent intelligence assessments.

On Tuesday, Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff held three hours of talks in Geneva with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. While both sides cited “progress,” U.S. officials acknowledged that major gaps remain.

Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News that discussions “went well on some points,” but added that “on others it was clear the president has set red lines the Iranians are not yet willing to accept.” He warned that diplomacy may have “reached its natural end.”

Military mobilization and escalation risks

U.S. military presence in the region has expanded significantly. According to sources, two aircraft carriers, more than a dozen warships, hundreds of combat aircraft, and multiple air-defense systems are now deployed, with additional assets still en route.

Over 150 military transport flights have delivered weapons and ammunition to the region, including some 50 fighter aircraft—F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s—within the past 24 hours alone.

Analysts note that prolonged tensions with Iran have produced a degree of public fatigue in the United States. However, officials caution that any conflict could erupt more suddenly and escalate more broadly than commonly assumed.

The scale of the deployment and increasingly confrontational rhetoric have made it politically difficult for Washington to de-escalate without major Iranian concessions on its nuclear program. Administration officials reportedly do not view the buildup as a bluff. Tehran, meanwhile, has maintained a defiant posture, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warning that Iran is prepared both to repel attacks and to retaliate against U.S. and allied forces.

Timeline and scenarios

The Israeli government, which is said to favor a more maximalist approach—including strikes on missile capabilities and possible regime change—is preparing for the possibility of war within days, according to two Israeli officials.

U.S. officials suggest the timeline may be longer. Senator Lindsey Graham has said military action could be weeks away, though others believe events could move faster.

“The president is exhausted by the situation,” one adviser said. “There are voices around him warning against war with Iran, but I think there’s a 90 percent chance we’ll see military action in the coming weeks.”

Following Tuesday’s talks, U.S. officials said Iran must submit a detailed proposal within two weeks. A similar deadline was set on June 19 last year, after which the White House moved from diplomacy to military action just days later.