The International Air Transport Association (IATA) considers an increase in airline ticket prices in Europe to be inevitable due to the surge in aviation fuel (jet fuel) costs caused by the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertain outlook surrounding the continuation or not of the conflict in the Middle East.

IATA Director General International Air Transport Association, Willie Walsh, told the BBC that despite the fact that some airlines have recently reduced prices in Europe due to lower demand, companies cannot indefinitely absorb rising operating costs.

“There is no way airlines can continue to absorb the additional costs they are facing,” he said. As he explained, some promotional fares and discounts may continue temporarily to stimulate demand, but “over time it is inevitable that the high oil price will be reflected in higher ticket prices.”

The rise in fuel prices has already affected long-haul flight costs, where significant fare increases have been recorded.

The suspension of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran has caused serious disruptions in the aviation fuel market, intensifying concerns about possible shortages in the coming months.

Europe and especially the UK are heavily dependent on fuel imports from the Middle East and are already seeking alternative supply sources.

Last week, the European Union announced that there is no regulatory obstacle to the use of American aviation fuels by European airlines, provided the transition is carried out carefully.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said on Wednesday that he does not expect serious shortages in the short term, although he did not rule out supply problems in the longer term.

A similar assessment was made by TUI Group CEO Sebastian Ebel, who said he does not expect fuel shortages in the coming months.

However, Willie Walsh warned that concerns remain in the UK, mainly due to higher summer demand. “The main issue for the UK is timing,” he noted. “In July and August, flights and fuel needs typically increase by 25% compared to March.”

He said that if sufficient alternative supplies are not secured, shortages could emerge at the peak of the summer season. At the same time, he sought to reassure travelers, stressing that there is no reason for panic and that mass flight cancellations can be avoided.

The IATA chief added that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, the impact on fuel prices would not disappear quickly. “However you look at it, this problem will continue for several months and may even extend into next year,” he emphasized.

On its part, the UK government said that airlines in the country “are not currently experiencing an aviation fuel shortage,” while a government spokesperson stated that suppliers are maintaining safety reserves.

At the same time, London is working with the aviation industry to ensure flights continue normally and is considering measures to help airlines realistically plan their routes in order to avoid sudden disruptions and holiday travel issues.