The first map shows that for the three-month period of June–July–August 2026, Greece has more than a 60% probability of experiencing temperatures above normal seasonal levels. In other words, the most likely scenario is that this summer’s temperatures will be higher than the long-term climate averages.

The second map shows a temperature anomaly of about +1 degree Celsius compared to normal levels across most regions. While that may not sound dramatic, on a seasonal scale it is considered significant. A one-degree increase means the summer is more likely to be generally warmer, even if there are also periods within the season that are more typical or slightly cooler.

The third map indicates higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure across the wider region. This is usually associated with more stable, anticyclonic weather conditions, increased sunshine, less instability, and a more favorable environment for high temperatures. However, Tsatrafilias stresses that this does not automatically mean continuous heatwaves or the absence of the seasonal “meltemi” winds.

He also emphasized several important points:

• Seasonal forecasts are not day-by-day weather forecasts. They cannot predict from now whether or when strong heatwaves will occur, how long they will last, or which areas will be most affected.
• These forecasts carry a significant degree of uncertainty, especially in regions like the Mediterranean and Greece, where local wind systems, heat intrusions, and week-to-week atmospheric changes can substantially affect conditions.
• A hotter-than-normal summer does not necessarily mean extreme or prolonged heatwaves. Seasonal averages can end up higher simply because there are many days slightly above normal temperatures.
• Finally, he noted that Greece’s seasonal outlook should not automatically be linked to the intense heatwave currently affecting western Europe. Just because western Europe is experiencing unusually high temperatures in May does not necessarily mean Greece will experience an extremely hot summer as well.