Hello. The truth is that Mitsotakis did not say anything new yesterday on ANT1, but it was a good and very detailed interview, an hour and a half long, in which he answered questions about everyone and everything. From Samaras and Karamanlis to Kövesi, OPEKEPE, the Tempi train disaster, urban planning offices, and also the dilemmas that will automatically arise in the elections. As for when he will call elections, we have discussed this before: he will always say “at the end,” meaning in the spring, because that is what he has to say. If he does not say it, he will inevitably lose the option he currently has of choosing either spring 2027 or autumn 2026.

Samaras–Karamanlis

Perhaps the highlight of the interview was the biting remarks about Samaras. K.M. (Kyriakos Mitsotakis), perhaps for the first time in history, referred in this way to the fall of his father’s government at Samaras’s hands and wondered whether he would do it again. As you can imagine, as we get closer to the polls, the issue will gain prominence and tensions will escalate, because Samaras, now 75 and with pollsters placing him in the doldrums, clearly has only one goal: revenge for not receiving from Mitsotakis the importance he believed he deserved. By contrast, for the time being the Prime Minister treated Karamanlis of Rafina gently, even though he too spends morning and night thinking about how to help Samaras bring down Mitsotakis.

Dora, Nikitas, and the State Ballot

Since we have entered a pre-election mood, let me tell you that discussions have also begun about New Democracy’s State Ballot (the nationwide party list). Some say that Dora would be interested in being included on the State Ballot and moving from Chania, but I do not see that as very likely under the current circumstances, unless something changes in a private discussion between her and K.M. Another scenario concerns Nikitas Kaklamanis, who had theoretically moved to the Presidency of Parliament, alongside discussions about a place on the State Ballot. This is not especially “hot” at the moment either, because New Democracy needs heavyweight names in the preference-vote battle, and particularly in Athens A there is not much room for maneuver.

Margaritis and Roussopoulos

One person who is flirting with a place on New Democracy’s State Ballot is Margaritis Schinas, who has not developed any political activity in Thessaloniki, such as opening an office and so on. He could also support New Democracy’s campaign before the elections, since from a communications standpoint he is among the most experienced figures and has a positive, European profile. Another person who will also be drafted into the campaign is Theodoros Roussopoulos, who is stepping away from the preference-vote contest in the Northern Sector but received praise from Mitsotakis for organizing the conference. Therefore, there may be a place for him on the State Ballot alongside campaign duties. Also, since I am talking about the State Ballot, let me tell you that two female MPs elected from it definitely will not seek election through preference votes: Nefeli Chatzigiovannidou, who considered it but decided against running in Thessaloniki, and Ioanna Lytrivi, who had previously run in Arcadia. I see both of them heading home.

After Alexandra, Vivi?

Considerable discussion took place yesterday in Parliament regarding the amendment I revealed the day before yesterday concerning the appointment of a permanent career deputy minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who would come from the diplomatic corps. This position will now be filled by Alexandra Papadopoulou, and as for a future government, we shall see. Let me tell you that another ministry where the establishment of such a permanent career deputy minister is being considered is the Ministry of the Interior, with current deputy minister Vivi Charalambogianni as a candidate.

The Law on Regional Television Channels

Yesterday Parliament passed Marinakis’s law to finally license regional television stations, and it reminded me of that infamous law by Nikos Pappas, although there is one key difference here. On the one hand, the new law does not provide for auctioning licenses; instead, the National Council for Radio and Television (ESR) grants them if applicants meet the required conditions and criteria. On the other hand, licenses will be granted according to the capacity of each regional broadcasting zone following a recommendation by the Hellenic Telecommunications and Post Commission (EETT), while there is a proportional minimum requirement for employees and journalists, protecting jobs. Unlike the Pappas law, however, there will not be a requirement that equity capital cannot fall below the minimum paid-up capital, a requirement that effectively condemned the majority of regional stations either to being unable to obtain a license or to being unable to retain one. Now, I do not know whether the law would pass muster with the Florence Institute, but the existing local television stations are certainly waiting for it.

SYRIZA Like DIKKI

I asked my source what our divinely enlightened leader Alexis intends to do with SYRIZA—whether he might take over the party and thereby also obtain the state subsidy, the Koumoundourou headquarters building, and so on. The answer was blunt: “Not one chance in a billion, not for all the money in the world.” When I asked what he predicted for the elections and the future of the once-governing party of the Left, he added: “It will become a 5% party shell with some money, and every morning Pappas, Dourou, and Polakis will be drinking coffee at Koumoundourou, while Famellos will have resigned. Something like Pantzas after Tsovolas left the party he founded, DIKKI, and Pantzas stayed behind to guard it.”

How Relevant Are Developments in Italy to the Greek Banking System?

In neighboring Italy, a banking war has broken out with enough momentum to reshape Europe’s banking market. Specifically, on June 7, Banco BPM proposed a merger of equals with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which would have created Italy’s second-largest banking group, with a market capitalization exceeding €50 billion. BPM owns 3.7% of Monte dei Paschi, and it appears there was a plan to move forward with the deal. However, on June 8, Intesa Sanpaolo intervened by submitting a €30.6 billion takeover offer for Monte Paschi. The Italian government, although it controls 4.9% of Monte Paschi, appears to be keeping its distance from the dispute between BPM and Intesa and seems willing to “bless” whoever offers more money. If Intesa prevails, a European banking giant will be created. For now, the two contenders are waiting, as rumors suggest that these developments could also mobilize France’s Crédit Agricole to enter the race for Monte Paschi because of its interests there.

The Greek Banker with the Pivotal Role

A Greek banker, Stefanos Papapanagiotou of UBS, is playing a pivotal role in the dispute, acting as an adviser to Monte Paschi. Papapanagiotou previously worked at Credit Suisse, moved to UBS in 2014, and since June 2025 has headed the Swiss bank’s global banking sector division. He is well known in the Greek market, having worked on numerous transactions, most recently the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance by Piraeus Bank. He is also working for Germany’s Commerzbank, organizing its defense against UniCredit, and he served as Monte Paschi’s adviser in its €15.9 billion acquisition bid for Mediobanca SpA, its largest competitor. Thus, a banking civil war is escalating in Italy over greater size and market share, one that could eventually take on a cross-border dimension. The question is how much all this concerns the Greek banking system. All domestic sources, both institutional and otherwise, state categorically that no similar conditions exist in Greece that would fuel a domino effect of upheavals in the banking sector. And indeed, those are the current intentions. However, there are two factors that could upset the existing balance. The first is that after the elections, and depending on the result, everything may once again be judged on a different basis. The second factor is that developments in just one bank could be enough to force all the others to follow suit.

Watsa Sold the House, but Kept the Key to the Safe

Eurobank’s acquisition of 80% of Eurolife Insurance for €813 million certainly marks its return to the life insurance business. But it is also something more. Back in the painful and unforgettable year of 2016, under pressure from the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), Eurobank sold that same 80% stake to Fairfax for €324 million. Today it is buying it back at 1.45 times book value, with the Canadian seller (who remains the bank’s largest shareholder with roughly 33%) having earned about €800 million from the sale price and dividends combined. Fairfax, however, is not leaving. Management of Eurolife’s €300 million investment portfolio by Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel (HWIC)—the investment “brain” of Fairfax—has been extended until the end of 2030. This was accomplished through a total return swap. Eurobank, now the sole shareholder, locks in a predetermined annualized return. Fairfax retains any excess return, while naturally also assuming the investment risk. In other words, Prem Watsa sold the house but kept the key to the safe. The acquisition costs the bank roughly 120 basis points on its CET1 capital ratio. If the SSM approves Eurobank’s classification as a Financial Conglomerate (FICO) and the application of the Danish Compromise (a decision likely to come in early 2027), then the participation will be risk-weighted at 250% as an exposure rather than deducted from capital, restoring about 50 basis points. That is where it will be determined whether the deal was ultimately expensive or simply clever. In addition, there is Grivalia Hospitality. Eurolife controls 47.86% of it, while Eurobank directly owns just under 7%. Together they hold close to 55%, without consolidation, since management control is exercised by Grivalia Management.

Giorgos Apostolopoulos’s 120 Salaries at Athens Medical Group

Considerable discussion has been generated in the market by a provision in the Athens Medical Group board’s report regarding the 2026 Remuneration Policy. As stated, it “rephrases Article 5.3 of the current Remuneration Policy regarding additional compensation in the event of the retirement of a former Chairman of the Board who has served for more than forty years.” Although not explicitly named, it is clear that the additional compensation concerns Giorgos Apostolopoulos, who served as Chairman until early 2026. The rationale, according to the report, is “in recognition of his long-standing and decisive contribution to the company’s growth, stability, and value creation.” What are these additional benefits? Subject to board approval, an extra compensation equal to three monthly salaries for each year of service will be paid. According to the 2025 Remuneration Report, Apostolopoulos received total compensation and benefits of €4.22 million, with fixed annual gross compensation amounting to €2.34 million. Forty years is, of course, a very long time. Presumably the 120 salaries (3 × 40 years) will be calculated using some average compensation figure. In any case, the resulting amount is enormous, and shareholders attending the upcoming General Assembly on June 26 will undoubtedly learn its exact size.

World Cup 2026: The Largest Betting Event in History

As the World Cup kicked off in Mexico City, shares of publicly listed gaming companies were already operating at quarter-final intensity. Yesterday, Allwyn rose 3.17% to €13.85, following the global wave of optimism. Macquarie estimates that the 2026 World Cup—with 48 teams and 104 matches, 60% more than Qatar 2022—will generate more than $50 billion in global betting turnover, up from $35 billion in 2022, averaging roughly $500 million per match. It appears likely to become the largest betting event in history. The real secret, however, is not found on the betting board. Analysts have pointed out that sports betting is a low-margin, high-volatility product. A scoreless Spanish draw can devastate any bookmaker’s book. The real gold lies in cross-selling: converting the occasional World Cup bettor into a casino, poker, and iGaming customer. That is where margins are stable and predictable. Macquarie notes that companies with integrated sportsbook-casino platforms will reap the greatest benefits, with an estimated 2%–5% boost to 2027 EBITDA. That is also Allwyn’s wager. It possesses precisely this integrated arsenal. In football, the winner is whoever scores. In the gambling industry, the winner is whoever keeps the customer after the final whistle. On a related note, Flutter, the world’s largest betting company, announced that it has prepared for the 2026 FIFA World Cup (which began yesterday) for an unprecedented flood of wagers. The company estimates that during peak periods it will process up to 100,000 bets per minute as fan and bettor interest reaches record levels. Flutter, owner of FanDuel, Betfair, and Paddy Power among others, views the 2026 World Cup as one of the greatest commercial opportunities in the history of sports betting.

Tomorrow: The UK Greek Bankers Association Black-Tie Gala

Tomorrow, Saturday, the 31st Annual Black-Tie Gala of the UK Greek Bankers Association will take place. This year’s gala will be held at Drapers’ Hall, one of London’s most iconic venues. The keynote speaker will be Vasiliki Lazarakou, Chair of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. At a time when digital capabilities and new forms of supervision dominate global discussions, Lazarakou will address the impact of technology and artificial intelligence on capital markets. As every year, Drapers’ Hall will host financial-sector executives, investors, legal advisers, and entrepreneurs who live and work in London.

The Big Game of Greek Shipowners in China

Anyone seeking the shortest possible description of Greek shipowners’ strategy recently need only look at their actions over the past few days. On one hand, they are selling older vessels; on the other, they are placing a wave of new orders at Chinese shipyards. The departure of the Maran Argonaut, Maran Happiness, and Kerkis from Greek portfolios confirms that fleet renewal continues at full speed. The numbers from the past twelve months speak for themselves: 327 vessel sales, 240 second-hand acquisitions, and 262 newbuilding orders. The real story, however, lies elsewhere. Most of the major transactions this week shared a common denominator: China. Tsakos, Dynacom Tankers, Aegean Shipping, Venergy Maritime, Erasmus Shipinvest, and Technomar all signed new contracts at Chinese shipyards, including Hengli Heavy Industries, Hengli SB, Hudong Zhonghua, and Guangzhou Huangpu Wenchong. Shipbrokers note that Chinese yards have become the ultimate meeting point for Greek shipping interests. Where discussions once revolved around second-hand vessels, they now center on newbuildings equipped with scrubbers, energy-efficient systems, and specifications designed to meet the requirements of the next decade.

Peter Georgiopoulos’s Message Regarding Genco

Particularly noteworthy in Peter Georgiopoulos’s interview with TradeWinds were his comments on the ongoing battle between Diana Shipping and Genco Shipping & Trading. The founder of Genco made no secret of his belief that shipping needs larger corporate structures and greater consolidation, while taking clear aim at smaller publicly listed companies that, in his words, lack “vision or leadership.” Even more interesting was the fact that he raised the Genco issue himself before journalists had even asked about it. “I knew you would get there,” he remarked, referring to the Diana matter, demonstrating that he closely follows developments involving the company he founded two decades ago. Although he avoided explicitly supporting either side, the message he and his associate Leo Vrondissis conveyed was that when a proposal is fair and creates value for shareholders, management teams have a duty to consider it seriously. That statement came just days before Genco’s critical general meeting.

From Wall Street and the City of London to the Holy Sepulchre

A different tone characterized the recent event hosted by the Piraeus Marine Club, whose guest of honor was Patriarch Theophilos III of Jerusalem. George Xiradakis, President of the Association of Banking and Financial Executives of Greek Shipping, chose to highlight the enduring relationship between Greek shipping, Orthodoxy, and global Hellenism. Xiradakis spoke of two institutions that have survived because they possess what he called “universal adaptability.” In other words, the ability of Hellenism to remain influential even without political or military power.

LAMDA: The Seven Lean Years Are Ending

For Lamda Development, the share price of €6.70 is viewed as a turning point. It was the subscription price of the company’s €650 million capital increase in November 2019, when the market applauded the vision of the Hellinikon project, even as the stock market spent the next seven years valuing it with skepticism. Following yesterday’s 2.16% rise and closing price of €6.635, the stock is now within touching distance of what some call the “threshold of redemption,” only €0.065 away from fully repaying investors who participated in the capital increase. This follows a successful return to debt markets through a new seven-year €350 million bond issue, which was oversubscribed 1.7 times, priced in the 4.20%–4.50% range, and has been trading on the exchange since the day before yesterday. When bondholders vote with their confidence under such terms, shareholders usually follow. The next major step is the “engagement” with Andrea Pignataro’s ION Group. The binding offer submitted in August 2025 envisions: A purchase price of €450 million. An International Research & Innovation Center covering 250,000 square meters. 2,000 professionals from 44 countries. Total investment exceeding €1.5 billion. A 2% equity stake in Lamda for ION. The process has been delayed, but according to the latest market information, announcements of the “wedding date” are expected in early July. If agreements are signed, Lamda’s Net Asset Value (NAV) is estimated to rise toward €10.50 per share. That would imply that the stock currently trades at a discount exceeding 35%. The question is whether, after seven years of “lean cows,” seven years of prosperity are about to begin.

The New Holding Company of the Sbokos Family

Members of the Sbokos family have established yet another company. The company is called “SF Holding S.A.,” and its purpose is, naturally, the provision of holding-company services. Its registered office is in the Municipality of Hersonissos, Heraklion Prefecture, and its initial share capital amounts to €25,000, divided into 25,000 shares with a nominal value of €1 each. The principal shareholders, based on their capital contributions, are sisters Konstantza and Agapi Sbokou through their respective companies. Specifically: “Phaedra’s Home Holding,” represented by Konstantia Sbokou, contributed €11,980, corresponding to 11,980 shares (47.92% ownership). “Ariadne’s Thread Holding,” represented by Agapi Sbokou, also contributed €11,980, corresponding to 11,980 shares (47.92% ownership). In addition, Eleni Sbokou, Minos Zobanakis, Eleni Zobanaki, and Ioannis Konstantakopoulos—son of Achilleas Konstantakopoulos and Konstantza Sbokou—each contributed €260 (1.04%). The first Board of Directors consists of: Konstantza Sbokou as Chairwoman, Agapi Sbokou as Chief Executive Officer,

Credit Agricole Foresees Two More Interest Rate Hikes

Credit Agricole is calling for two additional interest-rate increases of 0.25 percentage points each, in September and December, following yesterday’s ECB decision to raise rates again. According to Credit Agricole, the ECB has developed several macroeconomic scenarios: an adverse scenario, a severe scenario, and a milder one in which inflation is projected to decline to 2.6%. However, even under this more optimistic scenario, the bank believes that at least one further rate hike will be necessary. In its analysis, the French institution notes that the ECB’s “Iron Lady,” Christine Lagarde, has reduced the likelihood of another increase in July, without ruling it out entirely. Despite the more restrained rhetoric regarding the immediate future, Credit Agricole continues to expect a restrictive monetary policy, with two additional increases at the end of the third and fourth quarters of the year. In other words, by year-end, the key policy rate would rise to 2.75%, from the current 2.25%.

Christine Pulled the Trigger

The European Central Bank became the first G7 central bank to raise the cost of money in response to the Middle East energy shock. The deposit facility rate was increased to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%, effective June 17. It was the first increase in borrowing costs in the Eurozone since September 2023, a complete reversal of the easing cycle that had brought rates down from 4% to 2%. Eurozone inflation in May stood at 3.2%, with core inflation at 2.5%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the war with Iran has entered its fourth month. The ECB’s new forecasts envision inflation at 3% this year, 2.3% in 2027, and a return to the target only in 2028, as higher energy costs gradually spread into food, goods, and services. Eurozone growth has been downgraded to a meager 0.8% for 2026, following contraction in the first quarter. The specter of stagflation has returned to the meeting room. Lagarde kept all options open, emphasizing a “meeting-by-meeting approach, with no pre-commitment,” but markets have already drawn their conclusions and are pricing in at least one more rate increase this year. September appears to be the most likely next stop. The cumulative tightening reflected in the April minutes amounted to 73 basis points for 2026. A second move would surprise no one. The message from Frankfurt is broader: we have entered an era of increasing divergence among systemically important central banks. The ECB, with its single mandate of price stability, is tightening monetary policy. Other central bankers will weigh economic growth differently. In the previous cycle, central banks largely moved in the same direction—some would say like a herd. In this new phase of the global economy, each one is trying to fight its own battle.

Oracle: The Indigestion of $55.7 Billion

Oracle provided analysts with details of its 2026 capital expenditure plans. During the fiscal year that ended on May 31, Larry Ellison’s company spent $55.7 billion on data centers, representing a 162% increase and exceeding its own forecast of $50 billion by 11%. Spending has already reached two and a half times last year’s level. Fourth-quarter revenue ($19.2 billion, up 21%) and earnings both exceeded expectations. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew by 93%. Oracle’s management proudly highlighted a massive backlog of contracts totaling $638 billion. Yet the stock fell 7% after the market closed. Why? Because investors focused on the denominator: free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion despite $32 billion in operating cash flow. To finance the gap, Oracle raised $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity during the year. It also announced that it would require an additional $40 billion. And that is precisely the problem.Of the enormous $638 billion contract backlog, only 12% will be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months, and only 46% cumulatively within three years. More than half of those revenues will not be collected until after 2029. In other words, the bills are being paid today, while the promises will not be cashed in until after 2029. A key counterparty in these projects is OpenAI, which at the moment is simply burning through capital. At the same time, Oracle Health announced between 8,000 and 10,000 layoffs. Management is freeing up liquidity and redirecting it into the concrete and steel of data centers. All of today’s hyperscalers are turning to the same bond markets, the same private-credit providers, and the same vendor-financing channels. The market is beginning to show symptoms of indigestion. Oracle merely consumed its capital first.