In the projected election result, New Democracy stands at 28.3%, matching its performance in the 2024 European elections. Meanwhile, ELAS (Greek Left Alliance) reaches 21.4%, surpassing the 20% threshold and appearing to absorb a significant share of the so-called anti-establishment vote, regardless of ideological orientation, according to the company’s analysts.

Karystianou’s party drops to 11.9%, while PASOK-KINAL approaches double digits at 9.9%. They are followed by:

• KKE: 6.4%
• Greek Solution: 5.1%
• Voice of Reason: 3.6%
• Course of Freedom: 3.1% (just above the parliamentary threshold)

Outside Parliament, the poll places:

• MeRA25: 2.5%
• SYRIZA: 1.2%

Voting intention

In voting intention, New Democracy measures 25.8%, down from 27.5% in May, but still significantly higher than its April figure of 24.6%, according to ReallPolls.

In second place, ELAS rises to 18.2%, up from 14.1% in May.

Third is Hope for Democracy with 9.4%, although it has lost two percentage points since the previous survey.

PASOK-KINAL stands at 8.9%, showing only a marginal increase compared to last month and remaining in fourth place.

Also above the parliamentary threshold are:

• KKE: 5.4%
• Greek Solution: 4.5%
• Voice of Reason: 3.3%

Below the threshold are:

• Course of Freedom: 2.8%
• MeRA25: 2.0%
• SYRIZA: 1.0%
• NIKI: 0.9%

Stability versus political change

According to ReallPolls analysts, New Democracy remains clearly in first place because its central message — stability — resonates with a cohesive segment of society exceeding 30%.

More specifically:

• 31.8% view the election’s main issue as “stability and continuity.”
• 46.8% want political change.
• 31% believe that only a strong government can guarantee stability — a figure that closely matches ND’s projected electoral strength (28.3%).

ELAS emerges as the main opposition force

The Greek Left Alliance (ELAS) appears to be consolidating its position as the second political force, steadily widening the gap over third and fourth place and creating a two-party dynamic that squeezes smaller competitors.

According to the poll’s analysts, much of the 46.8% seeking political change is moving toward Tsipras’ party. ELAS attracts the majority of former SYRIZA voters from 2023, while also drawing support from Course of Freedom, MeRA25, and non-voters.

PASOK struggling to gain momentum

By contrast, PASOK-KINAL remains stuck in fourth place behind Karystianou’s party.

Although it is not losing voters on a large scale, it has failed to benefit from political turbulence. It also records the highest outright rejection rate among major parties, at 70.5%.

Meanwhile, Hope for Democracy, after a strong debut, has declined slightly as some of its initial momentum appears to be fading.

Probability of voting

Responses regarding the likelihood of voting for each party (“very likely” or “fairly likely”) help explain both voting intention and the projected election result, according to ReallPolls.

Analysts note that:

• After New Democracy, ELAS has the second-largest potential voter pool and the second-highest “very likely” score.
• PASOK-KINAL has the lowest electoral ceiling and the highest rejection rate.

Notably:

• 60.4% say they would “definitely not” vote for ND.
• 65.6% say the same about ELAS.
• 70.5% say the same about PASOK-KINAL.

In a separate question, ELAS was considered the favorite to finish second in the elections, with 31.9% of respondents expecting it to do so, compared with 18.8% for PASOK.

At the same time, 69.8% of respondents said they would vote according to their beliefs, regardless of polling forecasts.