Hello. The most interesting and entertaining thing about yesterday—after a difficult Saturday night in Thessaloniki, where fortunately there were no fatalities despite the fire in a residential area—was Antonis Samaras’s TikTok videos, in which he was interviewed by the journalist who also serves as his press office. It’s as if Mitsotakis had Christos Zografos interview him, or Pierrakakis had Katia Makri, or Hatzidakis had Sigalas ask them questions in order to “challenge” them a little. In the TikTok videos, Antonis, with his familiar tough-guy style, goes after Dora because, he says, she has never forgiven him for defeating her once (although he is the only one still preoccupied with it). He also attacks Pavlos Marinakis, who had said that Samaras was rightly expelled from the party since he eventually formed his own. Then he gets to the real point, which for him (or for the audience he is addressing) is that Mitsotakis committed the “crime” of voting for same-sex marriage. The technical production of the TikTok videos is not bad, although their content—in my opinion—is completely ridiculous. We have started the commotion early. I suspect we are in for quite a show, because what I gather is that the Prime Minister’s Office will not leave Samaras unanswered. Incidentally, I should tell you that the funding sources for his new party are reportedly being looked into by the appropriate authorities, especially contributions from prominent old business families (“old money and helicopter set,” as the expression goes). By contrast, the strategy toward the other internal party rival, K.K.R., appears quite different for now. The Prime Minister’s Office intends to handle him gently and consensually, because he himself is careful in public and, of course, remains within the party. Regardless, everyone knows that Karamanlis hates Mitsotakis even more than Samaras does. Altogether, however, this points to some serious psychological issues that are hardly compatible with the conduct of former prime ministers from the same political party. There is no precedent for it.

Vulgarity

Following the murder of Vagia Nestora, I wanted to make the following observation. When a member of Golden Dawn murdered the young man Fyssas during a violent altercation, his friends, supporters, and family created an enormous solidarity movement with demonstrations, events, social media campaigns, and the T-shirts everyone remembers bearing the slogan, “No way I’m going to cry, no way I’m going to be afraid,” a lyric from a well-known song. A few days ago, relatives of the Nestora family and New Democracy supporters attended a gathering for the mother of the female political candidate who was burned alive by incendiary devices, wearing T-shirts with a similar slogan: “We are not afraid of you.” The anonymous vulgarity that followed on social media is beyond description. They mocked the dead woman, parodying the T-shirts and inventing slogans such as “We are not afraid of prosecutors,” and so on. Had anyone else done such a thing (other than these despicable self-styled progressive leftists), there would have been an uproar.

Nestora’s funeral and the State ballot

Vagia Nestora’s funeral will take place in Kozani on Wednesday, and if K.M. has not yet returned from Turkey, Hatzidakis will represent the government, along with many other New Democracy officials. Although this is not the moment, Aphrodite Nestora appears determined to continue her political career, as she had already expressed her intention—even before the attack—to run again in Thessaloniki’s First District. Some say she may even be offered a place on the nationwide State ballot.

NATO summit

Kyriakos Mitsotakis will spend one night in Ankara for the NATO summit. Specifically, he will leave on Tuesday morning, travel to the Turkish capital, and attend the Alliance dinner that same evening. The following day, after the summit concludes, he will hold a press conference and depart. Based on current information and what I know from the Prime Minister’s Office, no bilateral meeting with Erdoğan is planned—and why would there be, given that the Turkish president is serving as host?

Karystianou and the wind turbines

Following the major wildfire in Oreokastro, leader Maria K. posted a fiery message on Sunday morning demanding that the government provide written assurances that the fire was not connected to plans to install wind turbines in the area. The wind turbine theory is well known among conspiracy-minded circles, but what our leader apparently did not know was that, the previous evening, authorities had already identified a 76-year-old man who caused the fire while driving his car and performing dangerous maneuvers that produced sparks. Quite a lot of…xylene, wasn’t it?

When the SYRIZA members leave

There is a group of seven or eight SYRIZA MPs who have decided to resign from the party. Karameros took the first step, and some are considering following him after next weekend’s Central Committee meeting. Others, however, are thinking of resigning in September, after the summer holidays, believing their departure will receive much better media coverage then, whereas now it would simply disappear into the broader atmosphere of the summer lull.

Delays at the airports

Unfortunately, in Greece nothing good can happen without something bad happening alongside it—the exact opposite of what our ancient ancestors meant by the saying, “Every cloud has a silver lining.” The surge in tourism during the first month of summer has brought chaos to the airports, with delays that fray passengers’ nerves and cost airlines tens of millions of euros. You may have seen yesterday’s report, according to which delays at Greek airports have increased by 63% compared with last year (source: Eurocontrol). This is due to several factors, primarily the familiar shortage of air traffic controllers. Probably, I would add, it is also a combination of many other factors, but the result is the same: it tarnishes the country’s image abroad and infuriates Greeks at home, with one inevitable consequence—those at home take out their anger on the government.

A new market with fewer brokerage firms

With the stock market at 2,537 points, everyone is smiling. Everyone except the employees of HELLENiQ Exchanges (ATHEX), who are gradually realizing that the transition to Euronext Athens will leave very little standing of what is currently known as ATHEX. In general, the philosophy is to minimize costs and offer nothing for free in order to maximize revenues. Brokers will also face problems, especially the smaller firms, which Euronext Athens appears to have little interest in preserving. The issue for brokerage firms is the license they need in order to execute orders—that is, their connection to Euronext Athens. There is widespread confusion over what the new system will actually require, but information suggests there will be three types of licenses. The first, toward which the banks’ brokerage subsidiaries are gravitating, is called co-location, involving the creation of infrastructure for each brokerage firm in Bergamo, Italy, where Euronext’s clearing operations are located. This license ensures order execution without delay and is estimated to cost between €200,000 and €300,000. The second option is a dedicated line from Bergamo to Athens, carrying a monthly communications fee of €5,000. The third is web trading, with a monthly cost of €2,500. However, it does not provide market data—because that data is sold separately—and merely allows firms to place orders, more or less blindly. Today, connecting to ATHEX costs brokerage firms between €20,000 and €25,000 per year. That is the current picture for brokers, with the caveat that no official announcements have yet been made and the above reflects conclusions reached by market participants.

The SSM has become stricter

Most of us have not noticed because it is not something that concerns the general public, but bankers have been discussing among themselves the stricter stance now being taken by the SSM on all fronts. By this they mean that the supervisory process has become more demanding across the board, from approving dividend distributions to granting authorizations for various programs that banks announced months ago and for which they have already submitted the relevant documentation to the supervisor. The reason appears to be the change in the SSM personnel responsible for supervising the Greek banking system. The personnel change is not recent—it took place quite some time ago—but it has become much more noticeable now because this is a period when approvals, decisions, and similar matters are being processed. According to banking executives, supervision has now adopted a stricter approach, particularly toward the countries of southern Europe. As for Greece’s four systemic banks, the SSM is now monitoring their strategy more closely, placing particular emphasis on both aggressive credit expansion and geopolitical risks that could affect the stability of the financial system. Against this backdrop, supervisory decisions are now reviewed multiple times before being finalized, lengthening the approval process and increasing the level of scrutiny. At the same time, the SSM has announced that it is comprehensively reviewing its supervisory approach and abolishing outdated practices. Approximately 40 supervisory documents have been deemed obsolete or no longer relevant and will be withdrawn.

Thriasio II and the Art of Twelve Extensions

Twelve extensions in a single tender can hardly be considered standard practice. They are the result of an administrative process that has proven far more time-consuming than anyone might have expected, encapsulating the developments of the past three years regarding the concession agreement for the Freight Railway Station and Marshalling Yard (ESSSDI) at the Thriasio Plain, more widely known as Thriasio II. This is a logistics project that is still awaiting its final signature, even though the pre-contractual review by the Court of Audit has been completed and the HELLENIC TRAIN–DAMCO consortium of the Kopelouzos Group was selected as contractor back in May 2023. Under the new decision by the Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, Christos Dimas, the validity of the bid has been extended for the twelfth time, until September 30, 2026. This decision, however, is significant because it sheds greater light on the current status of the case. The Seventh Chamber of the Court of Audit has already completed its pre-contractual review and communicated its ruling to the contracting authority in early April. This means that the most important institutional stage before the signing of the contract has already been cleared. According to the latest decision, what remains is the completion of the procedures set out in Article 7.7 of the tender documents, specifically the verification of the contractor’s final supporting documents, including the sworn declaration regarding any subsequent changes. Through this process, the State confirms that no circumstances have changed between the contractor’s appointment and today that could affect its eligibility to sign the contract. The ministerial decision itself states that the documents submitted by the consortium on June 12, 18, and 22 are still under review by the ministry’s services. It also recalls the lengthy history of the tender. The first international tender was declared unsuccessful in 2022 because no bids were submitted, and it was relaunched without any changes to its terms. During the second procedure, only one bid was submitted, by the HELLENIC TRAIN–DAMCO consortium, which was named provisional contractor in February 2023 and definitive contractor in May of the same year. Nevertheless, the contract has still not been signed. From July 2023 until today, the validity of the bid has been extended successively, with today’s decision marking the twelfth extension. These repeated extensions naturally raise questions, as the process recalls the well-known Greek proverb about someone who does not want to finish a job and constantly finds a new excuse to postpone it.

Q&R Heads North

According to reports, the management of Quality & Reliability will be in Poland tomorrow, Tuesday, and, barring any unforeseen developments, is expected to announce from there the acquisition of a publicly listed IT company. This move will seal the group’s international expansion and open the way from the Polish market to the wider Baltic region. For those following the stock under the ticker KOUAL, the move comes as no surprise. The injection of fresh capital in 2024 through the subscription of a €19 million bond loan gave the company a strong cash position and triggered a series of acquisitions without resorting to bank borrowing. These included SysteCom in cybersecurity, Belgium-based SquareDev in artificial intelligence, a double move in the SAP sector, and this year MTIS in maritime and dual-use technology, bringing the Group to the doorstep of the defense technology sector. The “small” Q&R of 2021, with revenue of around €4 million, is expected this year, according to analysts, to reach revenue of €33 million, with an EBITDA margin of approximately 17% (close to €5.5 million), net profit of around €1.75 million, and a backlog exceeding €40 million. If the reports are confirmed on Tuesday, Q&R will become one of the very few Greek mid-cap technology companies with a subsidiary listed on a foreign stock exchange.

The World Cup Sends Betting Companies Soaring

June 2026 turned into one of the strongest months in the history of sports betting, as the start of the FIFA World Cup led to an explosive increase in betting volume, platform traffic, and new customer acquisition. The increase is mainly attributed to the tournament’s new format featuring 48 teams and 104 matches (up from 64 in 2022), creating far more betting opportunities, as well as to the significant expansion of regulated betting markets, particularly in the United States. In the U.S., both DraftKings and FanDuel recorded all-time highs in both active users and total betting volume. DraftKings reported that betting turnover during the tournament’s first month was approximately five times higher than during the corresponding period of the 2022 World Cup. Although betting turnover increased dramatically, the rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) was proportionally smaller. This is because operators offer more promotions, free bets, and enhanced odds during the World Cup, temporarily reducing profit margins. Nevertheless, thanks to the enormous increase in betting volume, total GGR continues to post significant gains in absolute terms. Initial estimates projected wagers of between $50 billion and $60 billion, compared with $35 billion during the 2022 World Cup.

What Allwyn Expects from Betano and PrizePicks

Speaking of the World Cup, Allwyn’s share price has now firmly established itself above the €14 level, with the market valuing not only the group’s recent performance but also a number of catalysts that could positively influence the coming quarters. One of these is Betano, which is becoming an increasingly important growth driver for the group. The continued expansion of online betting is increasing its contribution to Allwyn’s results, while the 2026 World Cup is expected to boost betting activity in markets where Betano already has a strong presence and continues to expand. At the same time, the U.S. market is becoming increasingly important, and the acquisition of PrizePicks in the United States has given Allwyn a new source of growth beyond its traditional lottery business. An equally important signal for the market is the decision to launch a share buyback program of up to €150 million. Management is effectively stating that it considers the current valuation attractive while simultaneously demonstrating confidence in future cash flows and in the group’s ability to continue creating value for shareholders.

Aktor’s Record-Breaking Performance

Aktor continues its impressive run, setting another new record. During Friday’s trading session, the stock closed at its intraday high of €14.36, rising 4.66% and delivering the best performance among all blue-chip stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange. With this move, the stock’s gain since the beginning of the year has surged to 46.5%, lifting the group’s market capitalization to €2.92 billion—just a step away from the €3 billion milestone. The main catalyst behind Aktor’s rally remains the forthcoming €650 million share capital increase, combined with the issuance of a €300 million bond. These funds will finance the company’s major strategic expansion into the circular economy through Motor Oil, including the acquisition of 75% of HELECTOR and THALIS, transforming the group into a dominant player in the waste management sector.

The Hellenic Cadastre Is Looking for a Building – Piraeus Courthouse Ready

It is not only the private sector that is searching for large office buildings in Athens near central locations served by public transportation. The State itself has also been actively seeking such properties for some time, creating additional momentum in a market where modern “green” office buildings command rents exceeding €30 per square meter per month. The latest example is the Hellenic Cadastre, which has launched a tender process running until the end of July for the lease of office space totaling 7,000–8,000 square meters of usable area, plus at least 500 square meters of storage space and 100 parking spaces. According to the tender notice, the monthly rent “must not exceed €187,000 per month, or €22 per square meter” (covering total office and archive space). The amount excludes VAT, which will be applied where applicable under Circular POL.1180/18.7.2013, as stated in the tender documents. The lease term has been set at twelve years. The Hellenic Cadastre seeks to accommodate its headquarters and central services, while the property must be easily accessible by public transportation, specifically within 800 meters of a Metro station on any of the three existing lines. It is also worth noting that July brings another important development related to public-sector real estate, involving one of the country’s most anticipated new projects. This concerns the new Piraeus Courthouse, being developed by DIMAND following the tender launched in 2021 and now ready for delivery. The project is one of the largest building developments financed through the Recovery Fund, with a total floor area of approximately 36,000 square meters and incorporating “green” features. Three of the four buildings are scheduled to be handed over around July 17 in an area that continues the regeneration of Agios Dionysios—a redevelopment that DIMAND began more than a decade ago with the former PAPASTRATOS factory.

PPC: Battle for a Spot in the Top Three on the Athens Stock Exchange

PPC’s share continues on a strong upward trajectory. Following a robust two-day rally of 3.3%, it climbed to €23.70, marking its highest level in 18 years. During Friday’s session, the stock even touched the psychological threshold of €24, a price last seen in June 2008. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has posted impressive gains of around 30%, with the company’s recent successful share capital increase continuing to provide strong momentum. The group’s market capitalization now stands at €14.15 billion, firmly establishing PPC as the fourth most valuable listed company on the Athens Stock Exchange. At this pace, it is closing in on third place, currently held by the National Bank of Greece, which has a market valuation of €14.42 billion.

Why Kriti Kriti’s Stock Is Taking a Beating

In recent days, Kriti Kriti reached a market capitalization of €1 billion, surpassing even Sarantis and approaching Piraeus Port Authority (OLP) and Aegean Airlines. It is therefore only natural that some fast-moving investment portfolios chose to lock in the substantial gains generated by the stock. Trading above €30, the stock is at all-time highs, meaning that no shareholder is currently holding the stock at a loss. As a result, the stock corrected over the last three trading sessions, closing down 4% on Friday, while the market awaits fresh news regarding the company’s first-half performance. The company’s annual general meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, July 8, and the agenda includes a proposal for a share buyback program.

AVAX Is Building Its Dividend Story

Investors welcomed AVAX’s increased dividend and management’s reaffirmation of its guidance with a positive re-rating of the stock. During the company’s recent annual general meeting, management emphasized the Group’s strong operating momentum, reiterating its medium-term EBITDA target of €150 million, of which more than 40% is expected to come from non-construction activities such as concessions, real estate development, and energy. At the same time, management confirmed that it is not considering either a share capital increase or a bond issue. In the concessions sector, the portfolio is valued at €435 million (as of the end of the first quarter of 2026), while total future dividends and capital returns from these investments are estimated to approach €1 billion. Following six consecutive rising sessions, the stock is trading at multi-year highs, with a market capitalization of €576 million.

OTE Targets €20

OTE’s share price has climbed to multi-year highs, confirming strong buying interest from institutional investors. The stock closed at €19.50, a fresh 18-year high, and is now setting its sights on the psychological €20 mark, a level it has not reached since May 2008. Following this latest advance, the telecommunications group’s market capitalization has reached €7.87 billion, moving convincingly toward the €8 billion milestone. The stock’s positive momentum is consistent with the highly optimistic valuations issued by major international investment houses. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of €21.40 for OTE, while Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, placing its target at €23, underscoring the significant upside potential that foreign analysts continue to see.

A Stock Market That Digests Billions and Wants More

Veteran stockbrokers used to say that large capital increases “soak up” liquidity and slow the market. So far, Euronext Athens has emphatically proved them wrong. During the first half of 2026, listed companies raised €7.5 billion (€5.9 billion from share capital increases plus bond issues, compared with only €2.5 billion during all of 2025). Most of this capital was raised over the past two months: €4.25 billion by PPC, €659 million by GEK TERNA (with total subscriptions reaching €3 billion), €530 million by ADMIE Holdings, €300 million by CrediaBank, while July will see AKTOR (€650 million share capital increase plus a €300 million bond) and ElvalHalcor follow suit. Instead of weakening, the General Index ended the first week of July at 2,537 points, a 17-year high, with gains approaching 20% since the beginning of the year and average daily turnover of €341 million, up 56% compared with 2025. Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the index to 2,600 points, while HSBC describes Greece as the most overweight market in Europe for investment funds. The secret may lie in the calendar. On September 21, FTSE Russell’s upgrade of Greece to Developed Market status takes effect, opening the door to developed-market investment funds. History (in 2000, 2006–07, and again after COVID in 2020) shows that fund managers typically move through three phases during such transitions. They begin with blue chips; after six to nine months, attention shifts to mid-cap stocks; and finally comes the traditional “party” for small caps and the market as a whole. The “Greek risk” has now effectively been reduced to one word: elections—or, more precisely, political stability. That question will likely be answered toward the end of the year. Until then, the market is demonstrating something rare: it can absorb companies’ capital requirements while continuing its upward trend.

Behind the Scenes at the U.S. Embassy Reception: Why Shipping Took Center Stage

Even before the official speeches began, the U.S. Embassy reception celebrating the 250th anniversary of American independence was sending a clear message. Washington views Greece as a strategic partner at a time when energy security and maritime transportation are assuming a central role in geopolitical developments. The strong representation of the Greek shipping community did not go unnoticed—quite the opposite. At a time when maritime routes from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea face daily challenges, and the safe transport of oil, LNG, and other energy cargoes has become critical for Western economies, Greek shipowners find themselves at the center of international developments. It was therefore no coincidence that Ambassador Kimberly Ann Guilfoyle chose, during her speech, to refer to the historic American-built Liberty ships, noting that they laid the foundations of modern Greek shipping. The reference carried clear symbolism. The United States recognizes that, eight decades later, Greek-owned shipping remains a fundamental pillar of the global supply chain—and, especially today, of the West’s energy security. The same message was conveyed by the special emphasis placed on energy security as one of the main pillars of Greek-American cooperation. For Washington, energy is not only about production or infrastructure. Above all, it is about ensuring that cargoes reach their destinations safely. And that cannot be achieved without the world’s largest merchant fleet—the Greek-owned fleet.

Who Was at the Center of Attention

This is not the first time U.S. diplomacy has invested in its relationship with Greek shipping. In recent years, contacts with the sector have intensified, whether through the U.S. Embassy in Athens or through American government and maritime organizations, as shipping is now viewed as an integral component of the broader strategy for energy and economic security. The reception was attended by prominent representatives of the Greek shipping community, including Marianna Latsis, Captain Panagiotis Tsakos, Paris Dragnis, Symeon Palios, John Hadjipateras, Nikos Tsakos, Byron Vassiliadis, Panagiotis and Giorgos Angelopoulos, Achilleas Konstantakopoulos, Stamatis Tsantanis, Giannis Dragnis, and Alexandros Hadjipateras. Their presence confirmed that relations between Athens and Washington extend well beyond defense and diplomacy, increasingly encompassing shipping and energy—the sectors in which critical geoeconomic balances are now being shaped.

What Lies Behind the “Greek Shipbuilding Manifesto”

Those closely following developments in the shipbuilding industry believe that the “Greek Shipbuilding Manifesto 2027–2035” is far more than a simple list of proposals. It represents an effort to position Greece early in the major European debate emerging around industrial sovereignty, defense production, and the restructuring of Western shipbuilding capabilities. The timing is anything but accidental. The European Union is preparing its next multiannual budget after 2027, increasing defense spending, and seeking ways to reduce dependence on Asia in critical industries. Against this backdrop, the manifesto seeks to present Greek shipyards not as businesses seeking support but as infrastructure of strategic importance to Europe. It is also notable that the document links shipbuilding with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), artificial intelligence, robotics, defense manufacturing, and transatlantic cooperation with the United States. These are themes already dominating discussions in Brussels and Washington and are expected to shape funding priorities for the coming decade. The unanimous approval of the plan by the Hellenic Shipyards Association demonstrates that the industry aims to present a unified strategy and concrete demands before major decisions are taken at the European level. Whether the proposals will ultimately be adopted in full is another matter. However, those familiar with the way European industrial policy is formulated point out that the battle for funding and alliances always begins long before financing programs officially open.

President Trump’s Tariffs Did Not Reduce the U.S. Trade Deficit

Tomorrow at midday European time, the latest official figures will be released. At a time when the effective average U.S. tariff rate stands at its highest level since the 1940s—with an estimated annual cost of up to $1,200 per household—the complete trade data, including the services balance, will provide the final picture. The U.S. goods trade deficit surged in May to $105.8 billion, a 14-month high, far exceeding the forecast of $85 billion. Protectionism is at its peak—and so is the trade deficit. One possible explanation is that companies are stockpiling imports as a precaution to avoid shortages and price increases, not only because of tariffs but also because of the war in the Middle East. It is also true that the boom in artificial intelligence investment relies heavily on imports. Imports of capital goods are growing at an annual rate of 42%. All this is taking place while the tariff framework itself is being rebuilt on the fly. In February, the Supreme Court ruled by a 6–3 majority that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President authority to impose tariffs. In essence, the Court invalidated the “Liberation Day” tariffs, with refunds already reaching $20 billion out of a total amount in dispute of $166 billion. The temporary 10% “bridge” tariff expires on July 24. The Trump administration is now constructing a new, more legally robust tariff wall by proposing 12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners under the justification of combating “forced labor,” covering 99% of imports. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow, July 7.

The Dollar Has Changed After 165 Years

Beginning with the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the world’s most famous banknote has entered circulation with a new feature. Above Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s signature now appears Donald Trump’s distinctive signature. It is the first time in history that a sitting U.S. President has signed American currency, and the first time in 165 years that the Treasurer’s signature has been displaced from its traditional position. The occasion for the change was the 250th anniversary of American independence. The underlying significance, however, is institutional. Since 1862, when Congress authorized the Treasury Department to print the “greenbacks” to finance the Civil War, U.S. banknotes have borne the signatures of Treasury officials—not the occupant of the White House. The Treasury Secretary likely has the legal authority to alter the signatures. But the signature is only the beginning. A bill is currently pending in Congress proposing a $250 banknote bearing Trump’s portrait. At present, this is expressly prohibited, as U.S. law permits only deceased individuals to appear on American currency. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing has reportedly already prepared prototype designs “in case the legislation is amended.” Meanwhile, a commemorative gold coin bearing the President’s likeness and special passports featuring his portrait have also been approved. Approximately eight out of every ten $100 bills circulate outside the United States. Their holders around the world will now also be holding what amounts to a political statement.

Fewer Dollars in the World’s Vaults

The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 57%. It stood at roughly 70% in the early 2000s and reached around 85% at its peak during the 1970s. The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), a London-based think tank, reports an unprecedented finding in its annual survey of 90 central banks and sovereign investment funds managing more than $10 trillion in assets. More central banks now intend to reduce their dollar holdings over the next decade than to increase them. According to the survey, 79% of reserve managers believe the international monetary system is evolving toward a new multipolar structure, with developed economies favoring the euro while emerging economies increasingly prefer the yuan. The biggest winner, however, is gold. Eighty-two percent of central banks now hold physical gold, up from 71% last year, while 61% expect gold prices to reach between $5,000 and $6,000 per ounce by June 2027. The motivation is defensive. Fifty-one percent cite protection against geopolitical risk, with the Middle East and the unpredictability of U.S. policy ranking as their primary concerns. A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that the recent decline in the dollar’s reserve share is attributable almost entirely to exchange-rate effects rather than to large-scale selling. OMFIF itself forecasts that, ten years from now, the dollar will still account for 52% of global reserve portfolios, compared with 23% for the euro and just 5% for the yuan.