Hello, I spoke with my source, who has handled the issue of Rubio’s visit, in order to get a sense of the “temperature” of Athens’ expectations from the U.S. Secretary of State’s visit. “Make no mistake, for us the relationship has depth, and it obviously matters that he is coming to Athens and is not going correspondingly to Ankara,” he told me, adding another dimension: “Rubio, who has a strong relationship with the Jewish lobby and, together with Menendez, had brought the EastMed Act to the Senate a few years ago, has strong presidential ambitions. In plain terms, he wants to secure the Republican nomination for 2028, just as, obviously, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance does. We, however, like most Europeans, have no relationship with Vance, who detests the EU in its current form and has made that very clear from the outset.” By contrast, there is a relationship with Rubio; Gerapetritis has seen him several times, and we obviously perceive this relationship in terms of the depth that Mr. Rubio’s elevation to another position could have in the future. The scenarios for the Pnyx had not been finalized as of late yesterday evening, but Rubio wanted to hold a public event as well, through which he would address citizens, in addition to the statements he will make at the Foreign Ministry after his meeting with Gerapetritis and before the start of the plenary session of the Strategic Dialogue. I am told that he had “locked in” the Pnyx venue, where Mitsotakis and Macron recently held a conversation, obviously investing in the image of Ancient Greece that could accompany him throughout his own personal election campaign. It has not yet been definitively finalized, due to the tight schedule, but it has certainly been discussed.

Support for the fishermen and the dilemmas

K.M. announced yesterday from the Maximos Mansion that support would be provided for professional fishermen, who for days have been staging protests and who, in fact, yesterday arrived by sea all the way to the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which, of course, has no authority whatsoever to give them money. Because, however, their gatherings are tending to become an opportunity for a show for every opposition politician, the government is looking for a way to give them, in response to the undeniably high cost of fuel, something beyond the general subsidy on road diesel, while stressing that, like farmers, they received a discount on agricultural diesel from April, and indeed tax-free for several months. At the economic policy team, Thanos Petralias will find the money, which is not much, while Margaritis Schoinas will also find some resources from the fisheries program for other benefits. There is, however, also a line within the government saying that we cannot give everything to everyone, firstly because a difficult winter is coming, and secondly because in an election year many people will become more demanding, believing that they can pressure the government.

The President’s discreet visit

Away from the publicity and the cameras that accompanied him, President K. Tasoulas visited the home of the Petrou family in Ioannina on Sunday, where he stayed for more than an hour. He spoke with and offered words of support to the parents and sister of the late pilot Dimitris Petrou, who lost his life when an F-4E Phantom II aircraft crashed on September 5 in Tanagra during the Athens Flying Week 2026 air show. Also, yesterday in Karpathos, K. Tasoulas laid a wreath at the bust of the late Squadron Leader Kostas Iliakis.

The admiral is furious…

The statements by the little admiral Apostolakis against Tsipras were fire and brimstone, following the welcome extended by Nikos A. to PASOK. Right from the start, the admiral… launched the torpedo at the former prime minister, without, of course, naming him, but inside and outside the meeting room, we all understood the same thing from his… martial trumpet call, “I refuse the imperative calls,” and other such Alexis-style theatrics. The trumpet call, as a tactical means of communication, albeit through hints, was aimed at Tsipras and the condition of surrendering one’s parliamentary seat for anyone wishing to enter ELAS. Apostolakis has no “crew” of voters; he is a State List MP and, for those who did not understand, he is not giving up his seat. PASOK did not impose the relevant condition, nor did it rush to settle the open question with Apostolakis now as to where he will stand as a candidate. They are telling him to run in Piraeus A, but PASOK has not seen a seat in the port since the… good old pre-crisis years. He is being told—according to some fellow Cretans of the admiral—to run in Chania, but that is where the well-known actor (the priest from Sasmos) and close friend of Androulakis, Michalis Aerakis, will be making his debut. Apostolakis and Aerakis on the same ballot may bring in votes, but PASOK will win one seat (if it wins one this time).

Fishing from Kasselakis

The funny thing is that Apostolakis, who is going, by his own admission… against the waves (I’m crying), does not seem to care about the changing political landscape. He became Tsipras’s Minister of Defence, almost took the oath as Mitsotakis’s minister as well, joined Kasselakis’s party initially as the captain of the inflatable boat on tours around the Aegean, quietly left afterward, kept an eye on things during the “Ithaca” period, but whatever approaches were made (through intermediaries) regarding his joining ELAS never resulted in a face-to-face meeting with the former prime minister. I do not know whether Apostolakis’s move to PASOK was… inevitable; what I do know is that PASOK has recently been fishing from Kasselakis’s party. Michalis Chourdakis, who recently joined PASOK, served as a member of Kasselakis’s staff; the young MP Myrto Korovessi was until the summer Kasselakis’s vice president and may join PASOK in a few days and run in Eastern Attica; while Stefanos’s vice president was also Theodora Tzakri, although there is no new information regarding her “return” to the green homeland. Only Nina Kasimati remained outside Kasselakis’s inner circle and left SYRIZA—in the summer—when Rena Dourou expelled her. Kasimati is going back (officially) to PASOK in the coming days, with quite a few PASOK members pretending not to remember what she has written against GAP in the past. Why, did Tzakri throw rose petals?

Milos–White Coast

I am informed that within the next few days the National Transparency Authority will complete its investigation into the permits granted—and how they were granted—by the Municipality of Milos and the local planning authority (or whatever other service) for the famous White Coast hotel in Mytakas, Milos, just 1.9 km from Sarakiniko. The little hotel with its 11 buildings, 127 swimming pools, and several thousand square meters, a few meters from the water. I do not know whether this concerns only White Coast or other permits in the area as well. We will therefore wait to see what the National Transparency Authority says, and then perhaps we will understand who failed to do their job properly and, of course, whether there are criminal liabilities.

20,000 tons of bombs (up to 50 kg each) in the port of Thessaloniki

The expansion of the sixth pier of the Thessaloniki Port Authority is facing an unforeseen obstacle on the seabed. These are old bombs which, according to information, are making dredging difficult and threatening to delay the approximately €200 million project. Their safe handling has emerged as a critical outstanding issue, at a time when the construction site is calling for immediate state assistance. It is believed that, when withdrawing, the German troops dumped some ammunition depot into the sea. The information reaching the column speaks of approximately 20,000 tons, with bombs weighing 50 and 15 kilograms, figures that have not been officially confirmed. In any event, the problem appears serious. The safe handling of such a load could prove difficult and time-consuming, with consequences both for the progress and the cost of the project. According to the same information, the biggest obstacle to the works is the 50-kilogram bombs, which must be removed. As for the 15-kilogram ones, it is estimated that dredging can proceed with special protective measures. Against this backdrop, the recent statements by the project director, Dimitris Moutsakis, take on particular interest. He asked the state to assist “actively, decisively and immediately,” speaking of known issues that exceed the company’s remit and have consequences. He did not name the ammunition. He did, however, send a clear message that interventions are needed for the works to continue without further delays. The expansion of the 6th pier is being carried out by the METKA–TEKAL consortium, with the contract having been signed approximately one year ago. Construction, however, is proceeding so far. The construction site operates around the clock, seven days a week and, according to project executives, installation of the caissons is expected to be completed within the next five to six months. These are large prefabricated reinforced-concrete boxes, weighing approximately 1,400 tons each. With the expansion, the quay will reach 1,081 meters, compared with 568 today, while the operational depth will reach 16.8 meters, up from 12.6, allowing the handling of larger mainline vessels. Behind the scenes, however, information has it that the contractors are already considering the possibility of seeking compensation. Because if the outstanding issue drags on, the next difficult discussion will be about who pays for the lost time.

The banks and the €94 billion in bonds

Government bonds are being hit, yields are rising, and investors are examining the impact on banks’ portfolios. The four systemic banks hold securities portfolios with a total book value of approximately €94.1 billion, of which about €77.4 billion, or 82.3%, are classified at amortized cost—that is, in portfolios managed primarily with the aim of collecting interest and principal. This is the category that comes closest to holding securities to maturity, without meaning that sales of securities are ruled out. In addition, approximately €11.8 billion is measured at fair value through other comprehensive income and €4.6 billion through profit or loss, or is included in the trading portfolio.

What portfolio does each bank have?

Eurobank has the largest portfolio, worth €29.1 billion, with 81%, or approximately €23.6 billion, at amortized cost. Its composition is broadly diversified, with 35%, approximately €10.2 billion, relating to EU government securities, 21%, approximately €6.1 billion, to Greek government securities, and 4% each to U.S. and other government securities. Corporate bonds account for 11%, securities issued by financial institutions for 8%, covered bonds for 7%, and AAA-rated securitizations of business loans for 5%. Next comes National Bank of Greece, with a €24.5 billion portfolio, of which €19.5 billion is measured at amortized cost, €4.7 billion at current fair value, and €0.4 billion in the trading portfolio. Greek government bonds amount to €7.4 billion, of which €6.8 billion, approximately 92%, are at amortized cost. In addition, it holds €0.3 billion in Treasury bills and €16.8 billion in EU government securities and other securities. Piraeus has a €21.2 billion portfolio, with €16.8 billion at amortized cost. Greek government securities, together with Treasury bills, amount to €11.5 billion, or 54.2% of the total, while EU government securities amount to €7.7 billion and other securities to €2 billion. The reported portfolio yield stands at 3.2%. Alpha Bank holds €19.3 billion in securities and has the highest proportion at amortized cost, at 93.5%. Greek government bonds amount to €8 billion, other government bonds to €6.3 billion, securities issued by supranational institutions to €1.2 billion, and Greek corporate bonds to €1.4 billion.

And the bill…

And since we have analyzed the bond portfolios of each systemic bank, I saved the best for last: Whatever losses the banks incur from bonds, they do not run through the income statement but through equity. So—for the time being, at least—they are not breaking a sweat.

A glimmer of light in Brazil

The outcome of the first round of the presidential election creates new circumstances for Allwyn / Betano and the other 16 online providers with a presence in Brazil (such as Flutter, Entain, Superbet, Novibet, etc.). Bolsonaro received approximately 47% versus Lula’s 45%, while prediction markets now put the probability of him winning the second round on October 25 at close to 85%. On September 25, Lula had issued a Provisional Measure banning throughout the country the operation, offering, brokering, and advertising of fixed-odds betting. The ban covers both online sports betting and online games and extends even to licenses granted by states and the Federal District. Bolsonaro has criticized the blanket ban on online betting and appears more favorable toward maintaining a regulated sports-betting market, while it remains to be seen what will happen with online casinos. A change of government could significantly improve the prospects for online operators, and it remains to be seen what happens after October 25. In any case, the issue remains open, as the ban is in effect but must be approved by the country’s parliament within 120 days. Note that Brazil is one of the world’s largest online gambling markets, with GGR (turnover minus winnings returned to players) of €7 billion in 2025, while betting companies provided approximately 1 billion reais (about $192 million) in direct advertising sponsorships to Serie A teams. Following this development, Allwyn’s share price recovered significantly yesterday (+4.11%) and returned to the €11.53 level.

Raycap: The legacy of Kostas Apostolidis

More than two years after the untimely death of Kostas Apostolidis, founder and longtime head of Raycap, the company appears to be maintaining the strategy that established it as an international manufacturer of protection systems for critical electrical and telecommunications infrastructure. The financial results for 2025 that were posted showed that revenue stood at €148.27 million, compared with €154.92 million in 2024 (-4.3%). Despite the decline in sales, however, the gross margin improved to 25.57% from 24.45%, indicating that the core production activity maintained satisfactory resilience. Despite the pressure on profitability, the balance sheet remained strong, with equity exceeding €100.8 million, while bank borrowing is practically negligible, at just €395,000, with cash and cash equivalents at €3.33 million. An interesting point is the significant increase in research and development expenditure to €7.11 million from €6.65 million, as Raycap, now headed by the founder’s daughter, Kalissa Apostolidou, continues to invest in technology and the development of new products. The company continues to have a strong international presence, with facilities and companies in the United States, Germany, Greece, Slovenia, Cyprus, France, Romania, and China. In the United States it has three facilities, while in Greece a significant production and R&D base is located in Drama, in facilities covering approximately 39,000 sq. m.

Piraeus Bank: Only 2 investment choices through year-end

In Piraeus Bank’s investment strategy for the fourth quarter of the year, investment choices are divided into 17 categories. Of these, the bank’s chief economist, Ilias Lekkas, considers only two to have a positive outlook. Of the remainder, nine are neutral and six are negative. The two positive categories mainly concern European bonds—Eurozone government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds. The rationale behind the selection is that prolonged supply disruptions and unprecedented investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure have changed the landscape. For U.S. equities, the stance is neutral, citing high valuations, the midterm elections, and the restrictive policy being pursued by the Fed. In general, it appears to be keeping its distance from equities, but it singles out small caps, utilities, real estate, and communication services, which are merely downgraded to a neutral stance. Energy is upgraded to positive as a hedge against geopolitical risk, while technology is mildly positive. Healthcare, banks, and basic materials remain as they were: positive. As for Eurozone equities, Ilias Lekkas’s team is cautious. It cites the aggressive monetary policy being pursued by the ECB, the poor fiscal position of several countries, the end of the Recovery Fund, and the successive electoral battles across Europe. These same risks, however, do not prevent a positive stance on government bonds in the same region, based on the argument that yields will decline “over the long term,” without giving us a time horizon. In an investment-choice table filled with “neutral” ratings, the only bet with a positive outlook is that Europe will—someday—borrow more cheaply.

A €2 million bonus to himself

Giannis Masoutis decided that 2025 deserved a good reward. And not a symbolic one. The financial statements of the family-owned company provide for €2 million for him, for his services as chief executive officer. A demanding year, to be sure: he tidied up the balance sheet, transferred more than €100 million of debt into longer maturities, and prepared Masoutis for the biggest risk in its history, the acquisition of Kritikos. The nice thing is that G. Masoutis wears two hats. Chief executive, but also shareholder in the family company. And along with his €2 million remuneration, management is also proposing a €2 million dividend, or €3.97 per share. So he will also be on the receiving end of the dividend, depending, of course, on his shareholding. In short, Giannis Masoutis is preparing to put the company into the €190 million gamble involving Kritikos. And before taking on the risk of the next day, he made sure to generously reward the manager of the previous one. Namely, himself.

Losses, but fewer liabilities

The joint company of popular singer Antonis Remos and his godfather and friend Kostas Piladakis continues to operate at a loss. “R & P. Real Estate Investments S.A.,” based in Glyfada, according to its latest published results for 2025, recorded zero turnover, as in the previous financial year, with “other ordinary income” amounting to €7,212, down from €10,383 in 2024. Thus, the final result for the year was a loss of €1.14 million, compared with a loss of €916,289. It should be noted, however, that the company’s total liabilities have fallen to €9.01 million, compared with €11.67 million in the previous financial year. Likewise, total assets have declined to €4.1 million from €7.98 million. It is recalled that in this company, which was established in December 2005 and has now been operating for more than 20 years, the chairman is Antonios Paschalidis (i.e. Antonis Remos), the vice chairman and CEO is Konstantinos Piladakis, and Savvoula Palaiodimou is a member of the board.

Rubio in Athens: Shipping returns to the table

And since we mentioned Rubio’s visit above, it is worth saying that shipping is expected to have its own place in the 6th Greece–U.S. Strategic Dialogue, which is bringing the American Secretary of State to Athens, with the main interest lying in the continuation of a discussion that has already begun in Washington. At the Gerapetritis–Rubio meeting last February, the two sides had agreed to further promote synergies in four areas: shipping, energy, artificial intelligence, and high technology. Now the Greek side is also adding “safe navigation” to the agenda of the Strategic Dialogue, which it describes as a high-priority issue. From the previous general reference to “shipping,” the discussion is now shifting to the security of sea routes, while the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Bab el-Mandeb remain at the center of geopolitical turbulence and energy flows. No specific shipping agreement has been announced. But the sequence is interesting. Washington in February, an agreement to strengthen cooperation in shipping; Athens in October, safe navigation on the table.

Attica’s shipping “state”: 586 shipping companies with 5,471 vessels

If someone is looking for Greece’s real shipping footprint, they do not need to travel far. According to a study by UNCTAD, the UN organization that studies global trade and transport, 586 shipping companies are based in Piraeus and Athens, managing 5,471 commercial vessels of more than 1,000 GT. One in two companies in Attica, 287 in total, manages exclusively bulk carriers. Bulk shipping therefore remains the backbone of the Greek presence at sea, despite the glamour often surrounding tankers, LNG carriers, containerships, and larger high-tech investments. There is, however, a second way of reading the figures. Small companies are numerous—307 in total—but control only 14.3% of the fleet. By contrast, the 95 large companies manage more than half the vessels, accounting for 54.3%. The picture points to a market with a broad “nursery” of small outfits, but also a strong concentration of capacity among the larger players. Even more revealing is the increase in the number of companies managing more than one type of vessel. From 94 in 2025, their number rose to 117 in 2026, an increase of 24.5%. Diversification is not a luxury but a mechanism for protecting against uncertainty.

Almi Marine bets on the next phase of dry bulk

In the shipping market, newbuilding orders are never simply… orders. And in the case of Almi Marine, the company of Christos Chatzigeorgiou, the three Ultramax bulk carriers, each with a capacity of 64,000 dwt, which will be built at COSCO Zhoushan and delivered in 2030, point to something more than another fleet-renewal move. They show that the company sees the next phase of dry bulk on a horizon considerably longer than the current market cycle. The new vessels will incorporate the stricter environmental and operational specifications, which concerns not only regulatory compliance but also resale value, financing, and access to increasingly demanding charterers. What is interesting is that Almi Marine is choosing to position itself methodically in a vessel category that offers flexibility, without following the logic of “the bigger, the better.” Ultramax vessels remain particularly useful in an environment where trade flows are changing, ports have limitations, and efficiency now matters as much as capacity. With deliveries beginning in 2030, the message to the market is clear. Almi Marine is not investing in order to follow developments, but to be ready when those developments have already changed the rules of the game.

Ismini Panagiotidi shifts into higher gear at Icon Energy and Pavimar

Ismini Panagiotidi appears to have every reason to smile, as Icon Energy’s fleet is sailing with a favorable wind in the international dry-bulk market. The Nasdaq-listed company, which owns one Panamax, one Kamsarmax, and one Ultramax, is seeing its vessels’ earnings strengthen significantly, at a time when the dry-bulk market is gaining increasing momentum. For the third quarter, the fleet’s average daily rate is estimated at $19,000, representing a 23% year-on-year increase. At the same time, the vessels have achieved full employment, while contracts secure minimum revenues of $11 million. The most interesting point is that Icon has completed its scheduled dry-dockings, meaning that no further operational interruptions or significant related expenses are expected through the second quarter of 2029. The vessels are therefore ready to operate without interruption for as long as the market remains favorable. Meanwhile, Pavimar, which was founded and is headed as CEO by Panagiotidi, further strengthened its fleet with the delivery of the bulk carrier Aura. The new addition confirms the company’s steady investment presence in dry-bulk shipping and shows that the shipping group continues to expand on more than one front.

Real estate: Prices 7% above the 2008 peak

Morningstar DBRS’s analysis of Greek residential property was released yesterday under a title that clearly implied that the recovery in real estate is supporting the banks. The first paragraph of the report also contains a sentence that slipped under the radar. Low new lending is limiting balance-sheet expansion and the ability to increase profits. In 2025, apartment prices were approximately 85% above their 2017 low and 7% above the 2008 peak. The outstanding stock of mortgages, however, stood at around €25 billion in July 2026, compared with approximately €80 billion in 2009. New disbursements nearly doubled in the seven-month period, to approximately €2 billion. In 2006 they had exceeded €15 billion. The average new loan covers 64.8% of the property’s value. The benefit to the banks lies in the old loans. According to the ECB, approximately €57 billion of non-performing loans were securitized and transferred. Rising prices strengthen collateral and facilitate recoveries, sales, and restructurings. Ultimately, rising prices support the risk profile more than they support revenues. On the other hand, net foreign direct investment in real estate fell by approximately 25% in 2025. The annual rate of price growth fell to 5.5% in the second quarter of 2026. The OECD price-to-income ratio reached 109.5, compared with a peak of 114.1 in 2012. On the final page there is a table with the ratings of Greek banks. Eurobank has a BBB (high) rating, with a stable outlook, while National Bank is reported to have asked DBRS to discontinue its ratings in April.

The core became the periphery

The euro exchange rate fell to 1.12 against the dollar, a 17-month low, following four consecutive weeks of declines. This time the fire is not in the South, as it was 14 years ago, but in Paris. The French 10-year yield reached the 5% threshold last week, its highest level since 2002, and yesterday traded around 4.9%. Since July, the cost of servicing 10-year debt has risen by 113 basis points, the largest quarterly increase since 1987. The spread over Germany exceeded 150 basis points on Friday, following the largest weekly widening in 17 years. France is now borrowing at a higher cost than Italy. The trigger, once again, is the budget, this time that of Sébastien Lecornu for 2027. It envisages a €54 billion adjustment to bring the deficit down from 5.4% to 5% of GDP. With debt at 119% of GDP, record bond issuance of €340 billion in 2027, and presidential elections in April, the markets, as Nicolas Forest of Candriam puts it, are asking not only whether Paris can pay, but also whether it wants to. The European Central Bank has the TPI in its arsenal, the 2022 weapon that has never been used. But it was designed for “unwarranted” pressure on bonds, not for 5% deficits. Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin warned that there is no “miracle solution.” Barclays describes the paradox. Lagarde can protect the victims of contagion, but not the source of the contagion. Greece is also among the victims. Its bonds came under pressure to 4.48%, along with Italian and Belgian bonds, shortly before Athens submitted a draft budget with a fiscal surplus of 0.6% of GDP and debt falling to 136.7%, with a target of 128.8% in 2027. In 2012, Europe feared that Athens might infect Paris. In 2026, Athens has received the vaccine and is simply taking care not to catch it.