Hello all. Yesterday’s measures, apart from the already known ones on fuel, were good, and they were kept secret so that Mitsotakis could announce them himself. I think Pierrakakis and his team have hit on a politically effective idea in announcing DETH-style measures in instalments. The 120 instalments themselves affect a great many people, at a time when those people are struggling with the cost of living but also want to pay in order to keep working, keep their small or medium-sized business running and get some breathing space. Pierrakakis received many messages yesterday from New Democracy MPs telling him the 120-instalment scheme had been well received, as it is something the market has been asking for some time. Both the Finance Ministry and the Maximos Mansion also note that the measures on private debt play very well with the public, across all audiences, since everyone faces the problem. So if you have a measure that scores above 60% approval in every survey, you keep going and strengthen it to the limit of what is fiscally feasible. I am also told that a first discussion took place in the Cabinet on the new framework setting rules for servicers, and even experienced lawyers with knowledge of the subject, such as Thanos Plevris, acknowledged that the regulation is strict but also very clear for a market that until now was largely uncontrolled. I can tell you that the 120-instalment scheme and the “brake” on servicers will probably arrive by the end of October, regardless of the DETH package.

The silent extension and heating oil

Before yesterday’s announcement by Mitsotakis himself of a 20-cent increase in the subsidy on road diesel for the first fortnight of October, Helleniq Energy had issued its own statement on its contribution to the subsidy scheme. Motor Oil, by contrast, continues its “silent” participation in the subsidy scheme, as it did last month, applying the discount directly at the pump. As for heating oil, it is likely that around 14 October the government will make comprehensive announcements on the selling price and on a boost to the heating allowance, in evident coordination with the refineries. Then, depending on international prices, we will see what level the diesel subsidy settles at and whether the petrol subsidy, which until now has been funded exclusively by the refineries, will continue.

Mitsotakis’s remarks on Dora and others

I asked around and found out why K.M. chose yesterday, when he had the pleasant news (the measures) to announce, to take a swipe at Dora, after also saying something about the arrogance of ministers. I am told the Maximos Mansion did not like at all the remark by Dora’s son and the PM’s nephew, Kostas Bakoyannis, on ministerial arrogance, that “the public knows it all too well, while we treat it as a closely guarded secret”, which essentially repeated what his mother had said a few days earlier. Now, if you really look into why Bakoyannis lost the City of Athens to Doukas (by 15%), you will probably find both the open secret and the hidden pride. But I repeat that on the arrogant behaviour of ministers, I believe everyone has the right to criticise, whether they are directly responsible or not, so that includes Dora and Bakoyannis, and you and me. Only you and I have not been part of the power structure for so many years thanks to our surname. I am told this tension between Dora and her brother the prime minister exists because Mitsotakis refused to put her on the State list so that she would not have to run in Chania to get elected (she would walk it). I have not cross-checked this, so I am reporting it here as a rumour and not as fact.

Tsipras and Mount Athos: heaven help us

This morning I learned that our beloved Alexis, now also God-fearing, will pay a private visit to Mount Athos. Dimitris Linos, a doctor and something of a lay monk or priest, if I have understood correctly, will take him to two or three Holy Monasteries. I want photographs, lit candles, readings and, if possible, to learn of any confessions. I do not want to do our long-lived Alexis an injustice over religion, though, as he always got on well with the Church. He was on excellent terms with Ieronymos (or “Syrizonymos”), too, and who could forget the dove that landed on his head at Epiphany in the Holy Metropolis of Piraeus, just before the 2015 elections? Now let us see where Nikos will run to rally the monks as well…

The defence council and Saudi Arabia

I wrote to you the other day that the regular meeting of the Government Council for National Security (KYSEA) would take place today. I can now tell you it will be held in the afternoon, so that Nikos Dendias can return from Cyprus, where he is representing the government at the celebrations for the 66th anniversary of the island’s independence. Take it as given that the stay of the Greek Patriots in Saudi Arabia will be extended, since, against the backdrop of the Mecca Agreement, Greece cannot now be seen to withdraw its support from Riyadh. Speaking of Riyadh, Mitsotakis will go there on 24 October, as the summit between the EU and the Gulf states is being held again after two years, so a tête-à-tête between Mitsotakis and the crown prince, MBS, is likely to take place around those days.

Rubio’s programme

Otherwise, within the government and especially the Foreign Ministry, there is extensive preparation and an exchange of correspondence with the State Department for Rubio’s visit. He is expected to arrive in Greece on the evening of Tuesday 6 October. The main programme will take place on Wednesday 7 October, with a meeting with Gerapetritis, enlarged talks for the Strategic Dialogue and, somewhat later, a meeting with Mitsotakis, who will earlier be in Croatia for the summit of the Euro-Mediterranean states of MED9. I am told the US Secretary of State will have a very full schedule, which is also being organised by the embassy here.

The embassy invitation

Speaking of embassies, I wrote to you yesterday about the new French ambassador, Mr Kassianidis, inviting officials to a first meeting at the ambassadorial residence. Today it is the turn of the German ambassador in Athens, Andreas Kindl, who also speaks quite good Greek. In what is probably a rather complicated period for Germany, the ambassador is inviting officials based in Greece for aperitifs and German cuisine, although at these gatherings the most interesting huddles are always about Greek-German business.

The mysterious poll

The Association of Polling and Market Research Companies (SEDEA) met yesterday afternoon and dealt mainly with two issues. The first was a letter sent to them by the Alliance of Greeks party, the party Ilias Kasidiaris has said he supports, asking to be included in opinion polls. As I understand it, the solution favoured is that spontaneous responses naming the Alliance of Greeks will be recorded as normal, and if it passes 1% it will appear on the results cards, while any response naming the Kasidiaris party will be counted under “other party”. The association also discussed the letter of complaint from the lawyer Aris Papadopoulos against Interview, which I wrote about yesterday. The company is not a member of SEDEA, so the association has no jurisdiction. “Whatever the legal framework provides,” its members say, which means that if the lawyer wants to get anywhere he must send the complaint to the polling audit body that will examine the survey and publish its findings. For the record, I hear that the head of Interview maintains that the survey in question was completed on the night of 27 September. It was sent to the employee who prepares the report, who finished it on the 28th, added that specific date, sent the cards to the media partner, and it was published on 29 September. How the leak happened will be for the authority to find out, namely the polling audit body if it takes up the case, but it is all a little odd, wouldn’t you say?

Volotea in debt restructuring

Spain’s Volotea (in which Aegean holds a stake of more than 20%) is officially in negotiations with its creditors, with the aim, according to reports in Spain, of reaching an agreement by December 2026. The talks involve the state body SEPI (Volotea received state aid during the pandemic), which will have a significant say in the final decisions, as well as financial institutions and other creditors. SEPI appears willing to discuss a further extension of the repayment period, possibly from 2029 to 2030, but does not appear to want a haircut on its own loan. Volotea has already deferred €14.6 million in interest until 2028 and two instalments of €16.8 million. At the same time, the airline is preparing a new capital increase with the participation of investors, without having announced the amount to be raised or the final terms. The company attributes much of the pressure to the surge in fuel costs, the impact of which it estimates at around €150 million. The plan comes with significant operational adjustments: Volotea intends to cut its fleet from 44 aircraft to 30-35, mainly Airbus A320s, and a reduction of around 50 jobs at its Barcelona offices is also planned. The strain on liquidity had already become evident in early September, when the company disclosed that it had agreed payment deferrals of €49.3 million and was seeking additional financing of €25 million. Volotea forecasts losses of around €33 million for 2026, compared with €62.3 million in 2025. Spanish media report that Aegean intends to take control or to carry out the debt-for-equity conversion in question, while Volotea’s CEO, Carlos Muñoz, assured that the company is continuing flights, ticket sales and the scheduling of new routes as normal.

Short positions in Metlen fall

Short positions in Metlen shares, now trading at around €49, are on a steady downward path. Specifically, according to the latest notification to the UK Financial Conduct Authority, total short positions in Metlen fell to 7.69% from 7.89% in the previous update. The latest reduction corresponds to 286,852 shares.

Bessent’s Greek-American

A seasoned Wall Street figure with deep knowledge of bond markets and monetary policy is joining the team of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He is the Greek-American economist David Zervos, for many years Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, who takes up a role as counsellor at the US Treasury. Zervos will have a broad advisory role alongside Bessent, and his appointment does not require Senate confirmation. In effect, the Treasury Secretary gains a man with many years of market experience at a particularly critical juncture for US government bonds, interest rates and the management of the United States’ rising financing costs. A graduate of Washington University, with a master’s degree and a doctorate in Economics from the University of Rochester, he began his career as an economist at the Federal Reserve in the early 1990s. He has argued for lower interest rates and has backed Bessent’s moves to buy back long-term US bonds. People who know him say that although he was not born in Greece (his father left for the US at a young age), his ties to the country remain close, and he visits his ancestral homeland every year, as he has this year, not only for holidays but also to meet people from the worlds of the markets, politics and business.

Two readings of Intracom’s results

Intracom Holdings announced its half-year results the day before yesterday, and the market rewarded them yesterday with a rise of 3.79% to €3.01. The market evidently read the positive side of the accounts and the outlook first. Pre-tax profits were €10.6 million for the group and €14 million for the parent. Cash and financial assets at fair value reached €280.8 million, with zero bank borrowing at corporate level. But there is also a second reading. Europe Holdings now appears as a discontinued operation, ahead of its absorption by CrediaBank. With it included, the group’s final result turns into a net loss of €8 million. The cause is the one-off charges of the merger. Without them, the result is a profit of €8.6 million, while continuing operations produced net profits of €7.1 million. The parent’s profitability rests on its share portfolio, which yielded €17.1 million. It is in the nature of a holding company for its result to follow the trading board, up and down. For the same reason, the €280.8 million is not all cash. Before the merger, Europe Holdings is returning capital of €0.31 per share, or €17.8 million for Intracom. Subsequently, the listed company will hold 82.9 million CrediaBank shares, or 3.76%, with a six-month lock-up commitment. Sokratis Kokkalis explains that the capital gain will be reflected in the annual accounts, once the transaction is completed. Meanwhile, the property assets are maturing. At Elliniko, a €100 million project is under way with Ten Brinke. In Marousi, the €380 million Voria development has a completion horizon of May 2028. The value exists on paper. Management’s bet is to bring it into the till as well.

Photovoltaics hurt Mevaco, defence provides a cushion

Mevaco, which operates in specialised construction projects and has a steadily growing presence in defence, disappointed with its six-month financial results. Turnover fell by 64.1% to €17.66 million and net profit by 78.7% to €1.59 million. The cause was clear and stems mainly from the slump in demand for metal photovoltaic mounting structures, after the particularly high levels of 2024-2025. The pressure was compounded by higher production costs, which could not be fully passed on in prices, so the gross margin fell by about 6.5 percentage points and EBITDA by 73% to €2.76 million. Management predicts that this plunge will prove temporary and expects the second half of the current financial year to turn positive, in line with the strength and pace of the second half of 2025. In practice, the company is seeking to reduce its dependence on photovoltaics and to increase the weight of defence construction in its business mix. It is doing so along two main axes: broadening its partnerships and order backlog and, at the same time, increasing its production capacity. The backlog from agreements with Intracom Defense alone stands at €16.24 million, while it is carrying out an investment of around €10 million in a new 6,500 sq m industrial building and new machinery, with completion expected by the end of 2027.

Good performance on the Alternative Market

The companies of the Alternative Market did not do badly in the half-year either. This “nursery” for companies of the Euronext main market had two companies with losses (ONYX, owing to a change of activity and expansion into tourism) and Doppler. Overall, the 11 companies showed an 18% increase in turnover, 17% in operating profit and 114% in net profit. The companies do not include the special-purpose vehicles that hold mezzanine notes for banks’ non-performing loans (Mezz). Dotsoft and SoftWeb are preparing for the next step to the main market, having announced share capital increases with general meetings in October.

Athens International Airport: soaring to new record highs

Shares in Athens International Airport continue on an upward path. In yesterday’s session they posted a strong jump of 6.23%, closing at €12.96, a new all-time high. The move came in the wake of the heavy volatility that followed the rebalancing of 18 September, when the stock gained 8.87% to €12.27. After the initial surge, the shares went through a three-day correction, falling as low as €11.42, before returning to an upward trend. A five-day winning streak followed, taking the stock to record levels. Trading activity was particularly strong. Daily turnover came to €69.3 million, surpassing even the rebalancing session, when it stood at €54 million. Trading volume exceeded 5.4 million shares, with most of the transactions being ordinary trades, as block deals amounted to just €8.5 million.

Helleniq Energy: a breath away from the €18.87 record

Helleniq Energy continued its upward run for a third consecutive day, with the stock now within touching distance of its all-time high. Yesterday it rose 3.62% and closed at €18.63, a new 27-year high. With this move it came even closer to the all-time record of €18.87, set on 22 September 1999. The stock’s momentum is linked to the favourable environment for the energy sector, as well as the company’s recent moves in the fuel market. Helleniq Energy announced an extension until 14 October of the emergency discount on unleaded petrol and diesel, aiming to support consumers and the market amid heightened pressure on fuel prices. The measure involves a discount of 7.95 cents per litre on unleaded and 4.05 cents per litre on diesel, before VAT, for fuel destined for the domestic market.

Greeks’ savings in mutual funds approach €34 billion

The Greek mutual fund market reached €33.92 billion on 28 September, up €1.02 billion or 3.11% from 30 June. It is quite likely that, together with yesterday’s inflows, it is already at or very close to €34 billion. The data comes from the Hellenic Fund and Asset Management Association, as processed by the analyst Kostas Siamprakos. Some €738 million, or 72% of the increase, was new money. The average return of the market did not exceed 0.85%. The interesting part is where the money went. International bond funds drew €446.35 million, 60.5% of inflows, in a period when they lost 1.54% on average. Their assets rose by about €309 million. The difference, close to €138 million, is the price of rising yields. Greek bond funds took in €50.5 million and ended with assets down 1.10%. Their average return, -3.34% between 30 June and 28 September according to the association’s figures, is the worst in the table. On the other side, Greek equity funds gained 10.08% and added €483.7 million to their assets, which reached €4.91 billion. Inflows were €22.5 million, just 3% of the new money. In the quarter in which the Greek stock market was upgraded to developed-market status, on 21 September, the rally was enjoyed by those who were already in. In total, 10 of the 18 fund categories had a negative average return. They account for 62.6% of assets. Money market funds saw outflows of €21.5 million, even though the ECB and the Fed raised interest rates in September. Anyone buying bonds today locks in a higher yield. Anyone who bought in July is counting losses.

The bond that wants to become a share

Tzirakian Pipe Works returned to profit in the first half and, according to reliable information, is preparing its next step. Next week, an invitation is expected for an extraordinary general meeting on the issue of a convertible bond loan. Reports put the amount at around €5 million. The money is earmarked for repaying debts to doValue, with which talks are already under way, and for paying off higher-interest obligations to National Bank. The explanation lies in the half-year accounts published yesterday. Turnover fell 4.2% to €10.66 million. Gross profit, however, rose 66% to €1.67 million, and the margin climbed from 9% to 15.6%. Operating results turned to a profit of €562,000, from a loss of €164,000 a year earlier. Financial expenses fell 27%, but at €467,000 they still absorb 83% of the operating result. Pre-tax profit came to €95,000. Net profit of €231,000 is mainly due to a positive tax item of €136,000. On 3 September, the company accepted a restructuring of loans of around €6.5 million with National Bank, to the end of 2029. This was preceded, in late 2025, by agreements with Piraeus and doValue, totalling around €5 million. The share stands at €2, with market capitalisation at around €6.1 million. The bond corresponds to 82% of the market capitalisation. If the bond, 18 months after its issue, were converted into shares in full, bondholders on current figures would own around 45% of the company. The company’s aim from here on is therefore to make that conversion worthwhile for bondholders. When interest eats the profit, it pays the lender to become a shareholder.

What European shipowners wanted in Washington

European shipping was after more than a ceremonial visit in Washington. The European Community Shipowners’ Associations, represented by its secretary general Sotiris Raptis and Louisa Poutsio, crossed the Atlantic at a time when files are being opened in the US that could directly affect the costs and operating terms of international shipping. The association took part in the mission of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), whose secretary general is Thomas Kazakos, with an agenda that led to the centres of decision-making. They held meetings at the State Department, the Federal Maritime Commission, the Maritime Administration and the office of Senator Mark Kelly. And the issues discussed there were anything but theoretical: the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework, freedom of navigation, the US port fees that remain for now on ice, and the Ships for America Act, through which Washington is trying to rebuild American maritime and shipbuilding power. The Europeans do not want to suddenly find themselves facing new rules and trade barriers designed without them. That is why the message they carried to the American capital was specific: open markets, uniform international rules and a level playing field.

Grimaldi: a major investment push in Asia while keeping Greece as a base

If you want to understand where Emanuele Grimaldi is steering his ship, you need to look at two maps at once, Asia and the Mediterranean. On the first he is pressing the accelerator, while on the second he is making sure to strengthen the bases he already controls. What is striking is the speed. Within a year he raised the number of ships serving the Asian network from around 20 to more than 30. And he is not merely chasing a bigger share of sea transport. The bet lies in the cars rolling out of factories in Asia, and above all in China, and looking for a route to Europe, Africa, Latin America and Oceania. This is also the key to the group’s new PCTCs, the large vessels designed to carry cars and other wheeled cargo. With a capacity that on the largest reaches around 9,800 vehicles, the Neapolitan shipowner is in effect investing in the explosive internationalisation of the Asian car industry. “And Greece?” you may wonder. Here the plan is different but complementary. The group is investing in Igoumenitsa and Heraklion, which it controls and which are two gateways to Europe, while four new Ro-Pax vessels are earmarked, two each, for Minoan Lines and the Adriatic routes. Ro-Pax vessels combine passengers with large capacity for cars, lorries, trailers and wheeled cargo in general. In other words, they are not merely coastal ferries. They are links in a logistics chain connecting road, port and sea. In Asia, Grimaldi goes where the cargo is produced. In Greece, he invests in the hubs from which cargo can move to the European hinterland. And Igoumenitsa in particular, opposite Italy and on the Adriatic axis, takes on far greater significance in this puzzle than that of a mere regional port.

Ledoudis moves up a class with five Newcastlemaxes

The shift by Greek shipowners towards greater diversification of their investments has yet another strong example. Kriton Ledoudis is widening the footprint of Evalend Shipping in dry bulk, opening for the first time the Newcastlemax chapter and entering a vessel class in which he has had no presence until now. Evalend is reported to have ordered five 211,000 dwt Newcastlemaxes from China’s Dajin Heavy Industry, at around $77.5 million each, bringing the total value of the investment to $387.5 million. Three vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2029 and the other two in 2030. Ledoudis, of course, is not discovering bulkers now. Evalend already has 28 dry bulk vessels, but until now they ranged in size from 19,000 to 93,500 dwt. With the new order it moves up to the “heavy category” of the market, more than doubling the size of the largest bulk carriers it invests in. And the move is not an isolated one. Evalend has a particularly large shipbuilding programme of 35 vessels under way in China and South Korea, spanning tankers, bulkers and gas carriers.

Borrowed lenders

The world’s largest bond market is changing hands. At the end of 2025, hedge funds held US government bonds worth $2 trillion, nearly three times as much as five years earlier. They now account for 7% of the $28.9 trillion of marketable debt, a record share. The trend continued this year, with net purchases of $26.4 billion in the first quarter and $60.6 billion in the second, based on official Fed data. In essence, hedge funds have come to fill the gap left by traditional buyers. Pension funds, according to the OECD, are turning to less liquid and higher-yielding investments, such as private credit. The big difference lies in the horizon. A pension fund buys to hold for decades. A hedge fund buys, with money borrowed from the repo market, at leverage of up to 20 times, to profit from the small price gap between the bond and the corresponding futures contract. Morgan Stanley estimates that these leveraged positions have already fallen by about 20% this year, to $1.2 trillion. The retreat coincides with the sell-off seen in recent times. The 30-year yield reached 5.613%, its highest since June 2002. The 10-year exceeded 5.29%, from 4.15% at the start of the year. The Fed raised interest rates in September, for the first time since 2023. Anyone holding Treasuries is down 2.6% this year. Yields rose even on the day consumer confidence fell to 81.9 points, a low since 2014. Mohamed El-Erian attributes this to an imbalance between supply and demand. We live in an era when everyone, governments, tech groups and other businesses, is asking to borrow at the same time. The problem is that the lender who buys with borrowed money is also the first to sell at any price.

A small label worth €800

Since August, Gucci has been selling “Demna’s first sneaker” for the house, the much-discussed Drip, with a “Made in China” label. Reuters revealed this on 24 September, having seen the marking on the company’s website and in a flagship store in Paris. The shoe costs around €800 in Europe and $1,000 in the US, so it is somewhat cheaper than many other Gucci shoes. It has no laces and is made from nylon, canvas or suede. This is the second model in the Primavera collection to say China, a leather slip-on. All the other shoes with a declared origin on the website are Italian. Gucci says the Chinese manufacturer was chosen for the expertise the design requires, not for cost. There is no wider plan to move production out of Italy, its spokesman was quick to state. Gucci’s sales have halved in three years and the Kering group has closed dozens of stores. Two group sources told Reuters the brand has begun cutting prices on selected products, even in China. The second quarter closed with turnover of €1.4 billion, down 2% organically. But it was the 12th consecutive quarterly decline. Berenberg sees a divergence between provenance and the luxury image the house wants to regain. Simon Whitehouse, a luxury goods consultant in Milan, put it with brutal honesty: the Chinese label does not make a good impression. Last Friday, 25 September, Demna presented his third show in Milan, the “Store Show”, using a set reminiscent of a shop. Kering’s chief executive, Luca de Meo, has warned that the third quarter may come out roughly flat. It seems that in luxury goods, the customer pays for two labels, the big one on the outside and the small one on the inside.

When Boeing beat Northrop

The US Department of War announced on Tuesday that the Navy has awarded Boeing the F/A-XX, the sixth-generation carrier-based fighter. The contract exceeds $20 billion and covers only the full development phase. It covers aircraft for ground, flight, systems and weapons testing. From the 2030s, the new aircraft will gradually replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers and will fly alongside the F-35Cs. There is one loser in this process, Northrop Grumman. Lockheed Martin had been ruled out since March 2025. Boeing has now won both American sixth-generation programmes, after the Air Force’s F-47 in 2025. Steve Parker, the head of its defence arm, says that building two fighters in parallel was the plan from the outset and that the investments were made with that in mind. The award process (it happens elsewhere too) was delayed by around 18 months. The contenders had been waiting for the decision since March 2025. Congress had to write $897 million into the 2026 budget and force the Pentagon to sign a development contract. The market reaction was mild and predictable: Boeing gained around 2.5% and Northrop lost almost 5%. The talking point of the next few days is whether Boeing will exceed the initial budget, as it has a history of cost overruns on such programmes. For Northrop, it would have been the first fighter production in over five decades. It may still appeal, which would freeze work for months, although such appeals rarely succeed.