Hello all. I owe you some information I promised on the matter that surfaced a few days ago, when a WSJ report claimed that the US ambassador in Athens, Guilfoyle, said at a lunch at her residence, in front of ministers and Greek and American officials, something along the lines of “we can bring down your government, as we did in Romania”. Kyranakis has denied it (Kathimerini reported this yesterday), and the whole embassy categorically denies that anything of the kind was said. One source who was asked put it this way: “Let whoever wrote it come and prove it. The burden of proof is on them, not us.” I am passing it on as it was told to me. So let us move on to the substance, because for now we are talking about something where we do not even know what was said, how, or indeed whether it was said at all over a lunch table. Personally, I have not come away with the impression that the same report, which referred to the Vertical Corridor and Aktor, is connected to domestic rivalries and turf wars, especially the one that has erupted in recent days in the Greek press. My source abroad does say that “the fact that we sell American natural gas does not please the Russians or Azerbaijan”, but in my view that is self-evident. Unfortunately, in Greece the “neighbour’s goat” theory is considered perfectly normal. Meanwhile, the embassy is preparing for Rubio’s visit, which is a significant event both for them and for the country.

The Prime Minister’s measures at cabinet

Today, after the cabinet meeting, the Prime Minister will announce the first round of energy support, covering October, while decisions on heating oil will follow in mid-October. The framework announced today will be complemented by the refineries, which apparently will continue to shoulder part of the burden for both road diesel and petrol. It will apply for the first fortnight of October and will be readjusted depending on the scale of the intervention on heating oil. The government will chip in a little more for diesel, raising its contribution from 10 to 15 cents, while the refineries add another 5, making 20 in total. There will be more besides. Very good.

Triantopoulos’s one-way street

Former deputy minister Christos Triantopoulos learned from journalists yesterday that he is being referred to the Special Court over the “backfilling” of the Tempi site. It is not that he did not expect it, given the prosecutor’s recommendation, but it is never pleasant to find out that way. I am told that Maximos Mansion did not need to call him. He got in touch himself through the appropriate channels and made it clear to Mitsotakis that he will not be a candidate in Magnesia at the next elections. How could he be, in any case, with a court case hanging over him and the certainty that he would have to resign if convicted? Now, a few years after that tragic event, and given that the incredible theories that tormented most of public opinion involved conspiracies, xylol, toluol and smuggling, perhaps this man deserves a calmer judicial treatment. Today it is hard for anyone to believe that the area was “backfilled” to conceal something, whether xylol or smuggling. Besides, the long-standing responsibilities of individuals or legal entities are not hidden under rubble. Perhaps a horrifying image that would have shocked the public ahead of the elections? Nothing else, in any case.

Kind words from Nagel and Letta for Pierrakakis and Greece

Anyone who has tried to wish Kyriakos Pierrakakis a happy name day in early July is told that he does not celebrate on the feast of Saint Kyriaki, but at the end of September, on the feast of Saint Kyriakos the Hermit. So yesterday the Greek finance minister spent his name day on German soil, in Frankfurt, where he spoke at an event hosted by the Bundesbank. He could hardly have received a better present than the flattering remarks of Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel, with whom he shared a panel, and of Enrico Letta, who spoke immediately before the two men. The former Italian prime minister stressed how important it is for the Eurogroup to be chaired by the Greek finance minister. He also looked back at the crisis faced by the countries of southern Europe last decade, and at the progress they have made since, placing particular emphasis on Greece. It is worth noting that Letta has been one of the most talked-about figures in the EU lately, because of his much-discussed report on removing the Union’s internal barriers.

The foundations and dementia

An important initiative will be announced on Thursday morning at Maximos Mansion, where a broad meeting will be held on the Centre of Excellence for Dementia to be created in Peristeri. At the meeting, chaired by the Prime Minister and attended by a number of Health Ministry officials (the plan is essentially being driven by Irini Agapidaki), a donation of €5.5 million will be announced by representatives of some of the country’s leading foundations (the Laskaridis Foundation, the Onassis Foundation, the Leventis Foundation and others), to tackle one of the scourge diseases of our era. There is also cooperation with the Metropolis of Peristeri on the matter, and I am told that western Athens was chosen as the site of the intervention because significant inequalities persist in that area.

The ambassador’s invitation

Let me turn briefly to the social scene, since France has recently acquired a new ambassador to Greece, Nicolas Kassianides, who is French but of Cypriot descent and speaks excellent Greek. Give him two or three years here and he will forget his French. To meet people, he is inviting a range of figures from political and social Athens this afternoon to the ambassadorial residence on Vasilissis Sofias Avenue, opposite Parliament, for a welcome glass of wine. The new French ambassador was born in Montpellier to a French mother and a French-Cypriot father. In 2003 he did his internship at the embassy he now heads, and he has an interesting diplomatic and political career behind him, with postings in Rabat, in ministerial offices responsible for North Africa and the Middle East, as first counsellor in Cairo and Madrid, and, from 2023, as consul general in Jerusalem. In other words, the new French ambassador in Athens was Paris’s man for the Palestinian territories throughout the Gaza war.

Absent for a birth

Mitsotakis toured Aspropyrgos yesterday, accompanied by the responsible ministers Livanios and Zacharaki, as well as the local West Attica MPs Vangelis Liakos and Thanasis Bouras. Missing, however, was the top vote-winner of 2023, Deputy Transport Minister Giorgos Kotsiras, who had perhaps the most serious commitment of all: yesterday he became a father for the first time, so he evidently had something more important to attend to.

Complaints about opinion polls

The closer we get to the elections, the more protests and complaints against opinion polls we will see. PASOK, through Nikos Androulakis and its senior figures, is already making a point of questioning their reliability. Now others appear to be joining the dance. Yesterday, a complaint against the polling company Interview for “deceiving and misleading voters” arrived in dozens of inboxes: those of all the media, of the parliamentary parties (apart from New Democracy, Niki and the Spartiates, and the extra-parliamentary parties of Tsipras and Karystianou), and also of the Presidency of the Republic, the Speaker of Parliament, the Prime Minister’s office, SEDEA, the National Council for Radio and Television (ESR), the Supreme Court, the Athens Bar Association, the Union of Judges and Prosecutors and the Athens Journalists’ Union (ESIEA). The complaint is signed by a lawyer named Aris Papadopoulos from Kallithea, who claims that Interview’s poll for September, which according to the “research identity card” was to be carried out between 23 and 28 September 2026, was already complete and came into our hands on the night of 27 September 2026 at 23:58. “That is, a full 24 hours before the day on which Interview states that the questionnaires would finish being completed and the data collected,” he observes, concluding that “no specialised legal knowledge is needed to see that Interview has broken the law”. The lawyer argues that “the apparent ‘completion’ of the survey 24 hours early gives rise to well-founded and critical questions about its reliability and impartiality”, and asks: “Did the research come before the findings, or the reverse? In short, are the conclusions it presents the product of research or of a commission, and once the client’s ‘requirements’ were met, was the poll simply closed?” He considers that “such a thing constitutes deliberate misleading of voters and deserves to be investigated criminally”. It should be noted that Interview is registered in the ESR’s register under number 7 and, as it states, applies the international ICC/ESOMAR code of conduct. A company representative who was asked said that if summoned by the ESR, it will provide explanations there. But the truth is that there is a legitimate question here. Of course, you will say that Tsipras, who is directly affected, could in his day have raised the matter of that VOXPOP, as it was called, but that does not mean the Interview poll does not also deserve scrutiny, or at least a convincing answer. Anyway, in life “who is saying it” always matters, in everything.

Meeting on Monday or Tuesday over ferry tickets

Next week, barring surprises, the shipping minister will meet representatives of the ferry operators. The operators have already described the situation to the minister in quite plain terms. Energy costs are now putting dangerous pressure on the economics of the routes. Fuel accounts for more than 55% of operating costs, while the scope for passing increases on to passengers remains extremely limited. Fuel oil has reached €1,300 per metric tonne, touching €1,400 at one point. This is where the real behind-the-scenes story begins. The question is not whether there is a problem, as both sides now know there is. The question is what the government has, or can acquire in time, in its quiver. Time, after all, is not an ally. The companies have begun putting their routes and schedules under the microscope, examining where the equation still works and where it does not. The first early withdrawals of services have already appeared, four in total. That is why, as the meeting approaches, the temperature is rising. Maximos Mansion, working with the Shipping Ministry and the Finance Ministry, is examining the options for intervention, though the new scheme has not yet been publicly settled. In the spring, state compensation was activated for the mandatory discounts on ferry tickets, to ease the pressure on the companies without passing the higher operating costs on to passengers. But the energy crisis has worsened since then.

A winter of expensive electricity and expensive money

And since we have broached the difficult subject of ferry tickets, let me continue by saying that Piraeus Bank’s monthly Global Macro Trends, published yesterday, opens with a sentence that strongly recalls 2022. The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan each raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September (all three together), while “keeping open the possibility of further increases”. Markets are pricing one to two more Fed hikes within 2026 and two more by September 2027, while for the ECB they see 1.4 increases by the end of the year and almost 4 within a year. The common view among analysts puts the ECB rate at 2.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.25% today. Energy prices in the US are running at +62% year on year. European gas storage is “particularly low for the time of year”, strategic reserves are draining, facilities in the Gulf need time to be repaired and refining margins have soared. Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% in August from 2.9%, and analysts expect 3.5% in the fourth quarter. Piraeus’s statistical model leads directly to the conclusion that the 2% target is “expected to be missed” for good this year. As for the much-yearned-for growth, the eurozone’s 0.6% in the second quarter (up from 0%) “surprised positively”, but the report is quick to clarify that it came “mainly from Ireland”, that is, from multinationals’ balance sheets rather than from German factories. For the third quarter, the estimate falls to 0.2%. In China, retail sales rose by just 0.4% in August, inflation is 0.8% and growth is being held up by exports (+25%). China remains an economy that lives off what it sells abroad, because it does not consume at home.

Piraeus Port Authority: management positive on the rest of 2026, but no guidance

At Piraeus Port Authority (PPA), revenue in the first half of 2026 fell by 8.8% year on year to €111.9 million, mainly because of a €9.9 million drop in container revenue and a €1.3 million drop in cruise revenue. Ship repair, coastal shipping and the concession of Piers II and III offset part of the decline. Meanwhile, staff costs rose by 10.4% to €40.1 million. EBITDA fell by 19.0% to €56.1 million, with the margin at 50.1% against 56.4%. Pre-tax profit declined to €45.9 million from €59.8 million, and net profit fell by 24.4% to €35.4 million, or €1.41 per share. Inflows from operating activities rose marginally to €43.0 million from €41.7 million, despite a €25.2 million outflow from higher receivables. Payments for tangible and intangible assets came to €110.2 million against €48.0 million, pushing free cash flow after these investments into negative territory at minus €67.2 million. Cash fell to €83.1 million from €149.8 million at the end of 2025. PPA has no bank borrowing and, after deducting lease liabilities of €58.7 million, held net cash of €24.4 million, against €89.0 million at the end of 2025. Management describes the outlook for the rest of 2026 as cautiously positive, without giving quantitative guidance. Container throughput across the port rose by 8.0% year on year in July and August, while car handling and tank activity remain supportive. The duration of shipping diversions from the Red Sea, the course of the cruise season and delivery of the investment programme are the key factors for the second half.

The Chinese investment programme at Piraeus despite lower profits

And since we have opened the PPA chapter, geopolitical uncertainty and weaker performance at Pier I have left their mark on the financials, as noted above. Behind the decline in profits, however, lies an aggressive investment programme, as the Authority put €106.7 million into investments in just six months. Pier I is currently paying the temporary price of the upgrade works, which are limiting available capacity and, consequently, cargo-handling ability. The bet is clear: greater capacity and productivity when the Suez Canal returns to full operation and more cargo starts looking again for the main Asia-Europe sea artery. But bear one more thing in mind. Piers II and III have already moved on to better performance, with the positive trend strengthening since July. So the third quarter will be of particular interest, as it should show more clearly whether the picture has begun to change. And there is one more bet that is perhaps passing under the radar: the Logistics Centre. Su Xudong, CEO of PPA, put it high on the agenda, announcing that its delivery will be accelerated. Put simply, management does not just want more containers passing through Piraeus. It wants to create more sources of revenue around the port.

EYDAP, EYATH, PPC, Athens Airport, OASA and ports prepare crisis plans

On 5 and 6 November, according to information, port chiefs, OECD representatives and state officials will meet at the offices of the National Development Fund to discuss the “resilience” of Greek ports against multiple risks. Everything suggests that the Fund is beginning the process of protecting the “critical entities” of its entire group. This will be the first group-wide response by a public body to the new infrastructure resilience regime. The term “critical entities” comes from EU Directive 2022/2557 (CER), incorporated into Law 5236/2025. It is concerned not with cyberattacks (which the NIS2 Directive covers) but with sabotage, extreme weather, failures, pandemics and supply disruptions. The November meeting brings to the fore the new, expanded role of the Strategic Contracts Unit (PPF), which has already taken on port infrastructure upgrade projects and can now take part in international partnerships for the planning of strategic projects. The know-how must move from discussion into the studies for the projects that ports will need in the coming years. The list of “critical entities” in Greece is being compiled by the General Secretariat for the Protection of Critical Entities at the Ministry of Citizen Protection, headed by Vice Admiral Tryfon Kontizas, across 11 sectors, using as its criterion not size but “significant disruption” (dependent users, dependence of other sectors, market share, geographical extent). On that basis, the Fund’s portfolio reads almost like the list itself: EYDAP, EYATH, PPC, Athens International Airport, OASA-STASY-OSY, regional ports, ELTA and GAIAOSE. What follows is risk assessment, resilience plans across 6 axes (from physical protection to background checks on personnel in “critical positions”), incident notification within 24 hours, inspections and fines of up to €10 million.

Deals freeze ahead of 3 November

Suddenly, a mood of inertia and anticipation prevails on Athinon Avenue. The big stock market deals appear to have frozen. Placements, public offers, bond issues and one or two listings that were scheduled for early autumn are being pushed back until after 3 November, the day of the US midterm elections. No one wants to open an order book in a market that could change mood overnight. What could change? In the House of Representatives, the Republican majority is marginal, 220 to 215. Forecasts today give the Democrats a 97% chance of winning the House and 64% for the Senate. A week earlier, on 27 and 28 October, the Fed meets, and the market puts the probability of another rate rise, after September’s, at around 70%. Kevin Warsh’s dilemma is a serious one. If he pauses so close to the elections, it will look as though he is factoring in the political agenda. If he raises, the market will reach the ballot boxes with even more expensive money. A Democratic Congress would put the brakes on fiscal policy, but not on tariffs or decisions on war, which belong mainly to the White House. For bonds, gridlock in Washington may even be favourable. For Athens, the point of reference is German bonds and the ECB, not the American ballot boxes. But there is a detail that is often forgotten. The capital that came in with the upgrade is mostly passive and buys according to index weightings. Placements and listings need active managers. With the dollar yielding 5%, they demand bigger discounts. Anyone waiting for election night to open an order book may find that the price has already been set before the polls open.

ChatGPT notes on balance sheets have begun to appear… ammunition

It was not enough that we read identical texts every day. Now we also have briefing notes (we have even learned what “note to editors” means) on the financial results of listed companies that are written using ChatGPT. With expressions like “this is not just a healthy balance sheet. It is ammunition”, the “help” of the artificial intelligence system is obvious from a mile away. If companies cannot even write a text themselves…

Spyropoulos’s “wave”

Konstantinos Spyropoulos, who once charmed the television screen as a record company executive, TV programming consultant and above all as a judge on various talent shows, left the limelight many years ago, turning to different business paths after his marriage to Elmina Kopelouzou. For a long time he served as CEO of Gastrade, which operates the Alexandroupolis FSRU floating terminal, among other roles. Yesterday the company “Kyma Holdings” was established, based in Marousi, with the purpose of “participating in any way, whether through contributions or the acquisition of corporate securities, in companies of any legal form, existing or to be established, in any sector of economic activity”, as well as making investments in securities. The initial share capital is €290,000, divided into 29,000 registered ordinary shares with a nominal value of €10 each, and was put up by two Cypriot offshore companies. Rovenia Retail Limited contributed €203,000 and Veritrox Limited €87,000, acquiring corresponding stakes. The company’s first board, which evidently reflects the interests of the Kopelouzou group, has three members: Konstantinos Spyropoulos as Chairman and CEO, Maria Leontsini as Vice-Chair and Georgios Belegris as a member.

Gomopoulos and Pankration

Paul (Apostolos) Gomopoulos, a market figure with extensive international experience in real estate, became known to us as Hines’s man in Greece. Since 2015, when the powerful American group came to Greece, until today, Gomopoulos has been managing director of Hines Hellas. Yesterday, however, the company “Pankration Capital” was established, based on Stadiou Street, with initial share capital of €15,000, paid in by Gomopoulos himself. The company’s purpose includes property management, strategic management consulting, business structuring and restructuring services, valuation services ahead of mergers and acquisitions, marketing matters and so on.

From guarantees to a financing ecosystem

At TMEDE, the management of Konstantinos Makedos reads the 2025 financial results as capital for the next step: the transition from a strong guarantee provider to a more complete financing arm for the engineering and construction community. Turnover reached €14.78 million and EBITDA €8.58 million, a margin of 58.07%, while equity rose by 25.39% to €191.51 million. Even more significant is that income from letters of guarantee, the Fund’s traditional core, rose by 15.59% to €13.86 million. In other words, growth did not come from some one-off event but from strengthening the core business. Behind the scenes, the interest is in leveraging this capital base. Through the EAT-TMEDE Guarantee Fund, the Fund’s guarantee covers 80% of bank financing, and the maximum working capital per beneficiary has doubled to €400,000. By the end of August, around €64 million had already been channelled to 445 small and medium-sized engineering and construction firms. Meanwhile, TMEDE Microfinance Solutions has disbursed around €23 million to more than 1,040 professionals, start-ups and small businesses, with loans of up to €25,000. It is now clear that TMEDE is trying to cover the whole spectrum, from the young engineer who needs small initial funding to the engineering firm that needs bank working capital. The stake in CrediaBank, the extension of the EAT-TMEDE tools and the digital Portfolio show that the aim is not simply more guarantees but a permanent financing ecosystem around the engineering sector.

Eurobank nears €5 and chases the market capitalisation lead

Eurobank is at the forefront of the upward move in the banks, which are trading at 11-year highs, with the stock renewing its multi-year records. Specifically, Eurobank stayed on a positive path for a third consecutive session, closing in on the psychological barrier of €5, a level it has not approached since August 2015. Over the last three sessions the stock has gained 6.6%, while its total gain since the start of the year stands at 43.9%, confirming the momentum built up by the banking sector on the Athens Stock Exchange. Trading activity is also notable, as yesterday’s rally was accompanied by strong investor interest. Eurobank’s daily turnover exceeded €100 million, coming in at €107.35 million, with volume reaching 21.88 million shares. This is the highest turnover in eight months, excluding the rebalancing session on 18 September, when transactions soared to €616 million. Meanwhile, the bank’s market capitalisation has risen to €17.79 billion, noticeably narrowing the gap with Coca-Cola HBC, which remains the most valuable listed company by market capitalisation at around €18.84 billion.

Analysts give AVAX a lift

AVAX shares returned to the spotlight after a new report from Alpha Finance-AXIA, which initiated coverage of the listed company with a “buy” recommendation and a target price of €5.1, implying considerable upside from current levels. The report’s positive reception was reflected immediately in the stock’s behaviour, which rose by 5.6% in yesterday’s session, with gains of 8.5% over the last two days. AVAX has thus moved away from the psychological barrier of €3 and this year’s lows, closing at €3.38. Despite the sizeable reaction, the stock remains some distance from this year’s highs of €3.8 and above. At the centre of Alpha Finance-AXIA’s analysis are the strong order backlog of around €2.76 billion, the momentum in infrastructure and the value of the concessions portfolio. The brokerage believes the market has not yet fully priced in the group’s prospects. The new coverage reinforces the positive investment story around AVAX, at a time when the construction and concessions sector is benefiting from a heightened cycle of infrastructure investment.

The shipowners’ poker of millions

The spotlight may have fallen on record tanker freight rates, but in the shipowners’ offices in Athens and Piraeus the real game is being played elsewhere: buy, sell, lock in capital gains and re-enter the market. And last week saw plenty of activity. Angeliki Frangou added another four containerships of around 10,100 TEU to Navios’s investment radar, with the package approaching $500 million. Capital, meanwhile, moved into tankers, linked to the acquisition of a Suezmax newbuild from Exmar at a price above $106 million. But the interest lies in the sales too. Dynacom is reported to be selling the Karolos, a 2009-built Suezmax, for more than $90 million, a price that a few years ago would have seemed almost unreal for a vessel of that age. Latsco is doing the same, with two 2015-built VLGCs changing hands for around $200 million, while Dorian LPG agreed the sale of the Captain John NP at around $75 to $77 million. The Greeks, in other words, are not simply waiting to see where the market goes. They cash out when prices hit red and at the same time place the money in the next generation of ships. A classic Greek asset play, yes, except that this time the sums have moved up a level.

Changing of the guard at Goldman Sachs

The Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs’s board has already discussed a plan for David Solomon to step down as CEO, with president and COO John Waldron as his successor and a timeframe of the end of 2027 or 2028. Under the plan, Solomon would remain executive chairman for one to two years, following the classic smooth-transition model of American banks. The plan requires board approval, which could come in the coming months. Goldman Sachs was quick to respond to the WSJ report, politely and without surprises. The board “regularly discusses succession”, but “there is no definitive timetable” and “claims about timing are speculation”. No one, however, denied the name. Waldron, 57, has been the obvious successor since 2018, when Solomon, then 56, took over from Lloyd Blankfein on 1 October and immediately made him president and COO. The two men met at Bear Stearns, joined Goldman a year apart (1999 and 2000) and, according to press reports, have homes on the same island in the Bahamas. Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo called it an “unusually predictable succession”. The behind-the-scenes story comes down to two numbers. First, the $80 million pay package Waldron received in January 2025 (coincidentally the same as Solomon’s), after news had leaked that he was in talks with Apollo. Goldman paid to avoid losing its successor. Second, the share price, which has quadrupled since October 2018, against +67% for the banking index. Solomon, 64, leaves (if he leaves) from a position of strength, having completed the decade everyone expected. The real risk is not at the top but in the second tier. Some of the COO’s responsibilities are already being transferred to CFO Denis Coleman, along with the OneGS 3.0 artificial intelligence programme. The board is therefore weighing the risk of losing those who will not get the president’s job, namely Dan Dees and Ashok Varadhan of investment banking and markets, and Marc Nachmann of wealth management.

Oil tarnished the gold

Last Monday was a special day for gold. Its price collapsed by more than 3.4%, one of the rarest daily losses of the last twenty years. Since 2006, the metal’s average daily change has been +0.05% with a standard deviation of 1.19%. Silver lost 5.41%, falling to $60.81. Over a month, gold has lost 7.17%, from its record high of $5,608 in January. The shine of precious metals was hit by developments in interest rates. The yield on the 10-year US bond crossed back above 5.2% and the dollar strengthened. Bets were rekindled that the Fed, which raised rates on 16 September, will raise them again in October. The critical measure is the real yield. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.90%. The real yield is the nominal yield minus expected inflation. If the 10-year yields 5.24% and the market expects inflation of around 2.3% over the decade, the real yield is around 2.9%. So when the state pays 2.9% above inflation, a metal that pays nothing loses its appeal. BMO Capital Markets sees a “higher long-term base” for the gold price being built, but for now CPM’s traders recommend staying out, with a range of $4,000 to $4,300 until mid-October.