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What the (unpublished) poll findings say, Mitsotakis as peacemaker in Athens, Tsipras, Kasidiaris and the forgotten “present”

Free batteries & Oracle’s problems in the desert

Newsroom September 25 03:39

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Hello, you probably remember the old film Breakfast at Tiffany’s. Well, we didn’t have that here, but rather Breakfast at the St. Regis, and I am referring to yesterday’s meeting that K.M. had with more than 30 representatives of large and smaller funds interested in the Greek economy and its prospects. The order was given, as I wrote to you, for 7:30 a.m., and the group was moved to the well-known hotel because of the large turnout, while half of those present were first-timers in the group. To give you an idea of the scale of the meeting, which was arranged by the Prime Minister’s investment adviser Dimitris Politis and Alpha Bank’s AXIA: the 30 have approximately $4.5 trillion under management. The group included representatives of major funds such as Capital, CVC and Ares, but also more specialized ones, such as EnTrust Global, which specializes in shipping transactions, and Voxel Capital Partners, which focuses on technology and AI companies. Representatives of funds that have participated in the recent equity deals of PPC and IPTO were also present. I am told that K.M. gave a general ten-minute introduction and that the discussion then developed mainly through questions and answers, with lively interest in the prospects of the Greek economy. The issues discussed included, of course, energy and the country’s geopolitical role, as well as energy security, the course of Greek banks, and the transformation of the state through Gov. I am told that, in this closed-door meeting as well, assurances were given that no extraordinary taxes would be imposed on the profits of energy companies and banks, which would obviously send a bad signal to the international investment community. Organizing the event was quite a feat, since bringing together senior executives in Manhattan at 7:30 a.m., especially when the roads are closed because of the UN General Assembly, is not easy. Note, moreover, that on the sidelines of the event, 2–3 of the guests expressed interest in establishing themselves in Greece, as the decisions by Millenium and Rokos have attracted the attention of powerful investment groups.

The menu with JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley

Today, too, the Prime Minister has serious investment meetings after his appearance on Bloomberg at midday. Apart from the meeting with Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan, with whom he also has a personal relationship, I understand that the discussion with Morgan Stanley will be particularly interesting, as it will be more thematic and focused both on energy infrastructure and on the possible future of nuclear energy, which our country has begun to take a more systematic interest in.

The UN’s know-how and the me gusta colombiana

Now, Mitsotakis may have an easy time with all this very weighty, sophisticated and demanding program in New York with international players, but as soon as he returns to Athens, much more difficult work awaits him. To… take lessons from the UN, which spoke this morning (Greek time), and to calm the business tensions that have become more acute domestically in recent days. What a job: one day you are talking to JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and the AI inventors of the whole world, and the next you are dealing with the me gusta colombiana of Athens. I will keep you informed about the contacts from Monday, when the PM also returns.

What the polls reaching the PM’s office show

You read the Metron Analysis poll for Mega yesterday; it gives roughly the same picture as all the previous ones: New Democracy remains steadily in first place at 30.2%, with double the score of ELAS, which is at 15.8%, down from 17.1% in the previous measurement, while PASOK is eating into the gap with Tsipras’s party and reaching 12.6%. At the same time, the sense that the party of the “holistic pediatrician” Karystianou is collapsing is becoming entrenched. I am very curious whether this picture will be confirmed at the ballot box in the spring, with PASOK as the third party and more than 17 points behind ND, and what Androulakis will do when Mitsotakis comes out and says, “Guys, these are the results; come and let’s govern.” I will now also inform you about the unpublished measurements that reach the PM’s office and are putting smiles on the faces of the blue camp. According to what was conveyed to me, 51% want a single-party government, compared with 46% who want coalition governments. And not only that, but those who want a single-party government have increased by 3 points since June, and almost one in two PASOK voters want it as well! What is interesting is that single-party governments are overwhelmingly favored by those who identify as center-right (75%), right-wing (74%), and centrist (53%)—that is, the audience to which Mitsotakis appeals. A second qualitative element that they duly assess at the PM’s office is the fact that 38% of voters want political stability (if this translates into votes, ND would have a single-party majority), compared with 61% who want political change. Equally interesting is the fact that political stability is also wanted by one in three PASOK voters, 44% of those who identify as centrists, 76% of center-right voters, and 55% of right-wing voters. Among the undecided voters, 9% come from ND, so it has an audience to persuade before the polls. ND currently has a 69.3% retention rate, with 5.3% leakage to Voice of Reason and 4.1% to PASOK. Correspondingly, PASOK, with a 75.2% retention rate, has outflows of 6.4% toward ND and 6.9% toward ELAS. Finally, Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s card remains strong, as one in three consider him the most suitable prime minister, while Tsipras has fallen to 13% (from 15%) and Androulakis is at 7% (from 5%). Mitsotakis is in fact considered the most suitable prime minister by 17% of PASOK voters, as well as 15% of Greek Solution voters. Now, if pollsters—and indeed the most reliable ones—are showing this picture today, before the election campaign and polarization begin, I think they are simply dreaming of leadership changes on the move, at a standstill, or… in the heat of the moment. What do you say?

Measures in two installments

Yesterday government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis was rather clear about the timetable for the energy announcements: on the 30th of the month, an announcement will be made about what is to happen with gasoline and diesel, with the existing framework essentially being extended, but for approximately two weeks. Then, on October 14, new announcements will be made concerning the support framework for heating oil, with the relevant allowance now being significantly enhanced. The discussion about the exact support framework has not yet concluded; obviously, this will happen from Monday, when K.M. will be back at his desk and the necessary consultations will also take place with the economic team.

Trump and the refineries

One reason, in any case, why the government is taking a conciliatory approach with the refineries is that they are also providers of the country’s energy security. At a time when quite a few refineries have closed in Europe, Greece has two strong production facilities. So, if Trump follows through on his warning to “cut off” oil exports to Europe for three months—which, although, is rather unlikely to happen—it would create a serious problem across the Old Continent, but here there would be a safety cushion from the facilities already in operation. I say this because I hear the leader Alexis’s nice ideas about taxes and such things, but when the critical moment comes, someone will have to step up and shoulder the burden.

Investment and innovation

Yesterday’s announcement by Millennium about operating in Greece comes on top of a series of business and investment giants choosing Greece to expand their activities. Since the relevant posts on social media also included photographs with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, I asked and learned that the final meetings took place in Athens a few days ago and that only yesterday was the positive outcome made public. This is a development that vindicates the Maximos Mansion’s strategy of attracting “players” of global stature, which Kyriakos Pierrakakis is systematically implementing at the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, Greece’s proposal for the creation of a European Spectrum Union has caused a great deal of interest. In fact, this particular idea, presented by Kyriakos Pierrakakis, is being discussed not only at the EU General Affairs Council (where Greece is represented by Tasos Chatzivasileiou), but also by Europe’s largest media outlets. By way of example, Reuters focuses on the fact that such a move would reduce pressure on the EU budget, while Euractiv places particular emphasis on using revenues from the auction of 6G spectrum to capitalize a European investment fund taking equity stakes in strategic technologies.

Tsipras, Kasidiaris and a forgotten “present” vote

Since I mentioned Alexis, what he said the other day on SKAI is interesting: that the government must clarify its position on Kasidiaris. Admittedly, the government—and any government—can do little, since the matter is in the hands of the Supreme Court. The interest in the leader’s zeal, however, was highlighted by spokesman Marinakis, who reminded everyone yesterday that in 2023, when the regulation was introduced that excluded Kasidiaris from the elections, SYRIZA—with Tsipras as president—had voted “present.” Obviously, Alexis has moved on since then, but his party is new. He himself has a past.

The “thank you” from Nicosia

The position taken by the Greek government, through Environment Minister Stavros Papastavrou in New York, regarding Turkey’s attempt to create an issue over Cyprus’s participation in the COP31 climate summit, which this year is being held in Antalya, was of particular importance to Cypriot President Christodoulides. At the morning meeting of the Europe-Gulf Forum Breakfast, which was held yesterday, the Cypriot President thanked the Greek minister, who was accompanying Mitsotakis at the event, for the position he took in his contacts with European partners and European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. Papastavrou had publicly condemned, during the meeting of environment ministers organized in New York by the Irish Presidency, the failure to invite the Cypriot President to the COP31 Leaders’ Summit, stressing the need for the equal participation of all member states of the European Union.

A change of page at SFEE

Let me also give you a piece of news from the pharmaceutical sector, as the president of the Association of Pharmaceutical Companies of Greece (SFEE), Olympios Papadimitriou, is stepping down from the presidency at the end of the month, as his tenure at Novo Nordisk is also coming to an end after three decades. I am told that the Association will go with an interim solution until the elections in the spring, with vice president Kostas Panagoulias taking over. Elections will be held in March, together with the general assembly, for the election of a new board, and I understand that the thinking is to bring in new blood, so that the Association can turn the page.

No extension for the Swiss-franc loan arrangement

There will be no further extension to the arrangement for Swiss-franc loans, which expires at the end of September. The banks say that it is possible that, by the end of the month, the percentage of borrowers who have taken advantage of the arrangement’s provisions will reach 70%.

The background to Binance

In recent days, a not-so-innocent serial has begun around Binance and the door it was shown by the Greek supervisory authorities. An attempt is being made to present the story as though there was supposedly extensive behind-the-scenes activity, with Lagarde intervening with the Greek government so that Binance would not receive the licenses it had applied for. This whole scenario is being constructed to save face and to have the red card that was coming from the Greek authorities disappear amid the noise. Specifically, the company that violated anti-money-laundering rules in the United States and whose CEO spent five months behind bars before being released under a presidential pardon submitted an application to the Bank of Greece for a license to issue stablecoins and to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission for a crypto-asset exchange. Both authorities, acting with complete independence, examined the respective application each was responsible for and asked Binance to meet the regulatory compliance requirements because the information it had submitted for licensing was incomplete. When the two parallel procedures—at the Bank of Greece and at the Hellenic Capital Market Commission—were approaching their deadlines and it was obvious that the applications would be rejected, Binance chose to withdraw both applications before they were rejected. Everything else is…

Free batteries!

Alexandros Exarchou appeared furious following Aktor’s announcement of its results regarding the (non-)storage of energy in Greece. In a time of an energy crisis, he told journalists, we are allowing Bulgaria to buy cheap electricity every afternoon from Greek renewable energy sources, store it, and sell it back to us at a very high price in the evening. His proposal is simple: immediately liberalize the battery market, without subsidies, get many projects moving quickly, and rationalize things afterward through the market itself. The truth is that within two years Bulgaria reached 5.4 GW of batteries, equivalent to 22.8% of its installed capacity, a percentage higher than California’s. Greece is at around 700 MW. Curtailments of green generation reached 1.6 TWh in the first half of the year and are estimated at 3–3.2 TWh for the year, with the total cost of the storage deficit approaching, according to the market, €1 billion annually. The day before yesterday, wholesale prices broke through the €200/MWh barrier. Greece wants to, but it is slow. In March 2025, a ministerial decision was published in the Government Gazette providing for 4,700 MW of standalone batteries, on purely commercial terms, without feed-in tariffs and with the sole incentive being priority in grid capacity. Applications exceeded 700 (“the Energy Ministry’s email crashed”) and totaled approximately 12 GW. Eighteen months later, the Evaluation Committee has “practically completed” the priority lists, the ministerial decision is expected “within October,” and ambiguities in the criteria increase the likelihood of appeals.

Bakakis off-form, the horse and the donkey

By his own standards, Apostolos Vakakis was probably “off-form” yesterday during the conference call with analysts. Not in terms of news—quite the opposite, since he revealed quite a lot about Jumbo’s next moves. But we missed the many “poisonous” one-liners with which he usually spices up his remarks. Perhaps the cold telephone format ultimately does not help. General Assemblies have a different charm, with people filling his office and Vakakis gathering momentum as the hours go by. Because there was plenty of news. Jumbo’s model is expanding with smaller stores, which he himself compared to “drones that will support the ‘fighter jets’ of the large Jumbo stores.” Hungary is entering the map initially through an online store; in Romania, the company is preparing to double its network and is investing in new infrastructure, while Greece is also returning more dynamically to the investment picture. At the same time, the brand travels through partners as far as Canada and into new markets, although he made it clear that franchises are a complementary activity and not part of the long-term strategy. And, of course, analysts persisted with their favorite topic: what will Jumbo do with so much cash? One of them even calculated that cash reserves correspond to approximately 25% of turnover and pressed A. Vakakis on why he is not returning even more to shareholders. He gave the order of priorities: first organic growth, then distributions, and finally share buybacks. He does not want, he said, much more cash than Jumbo needs to withstand even a major crisis. At the moment, however, he sees investment opportunities. He did fire off a few shots, though. When asked whether he would buy properties currently housing Jumbo stores if their owners decided to sell, he was clear: “We are not Santa Claus. We do not buy at any price. And we do not buy our own name.” He was equally… accommodating when it came to profit margins: “Either we enjoy the margin or we do not sell the product.” His comments on Greece were also interesting. On the one hand, he described the Greek market as a market that “outperforms against all logic,” acknowledging that the figures are better than he had expected. On the other hand, when asked about the future, he linked it to the balances that will emerge after the next elections, while hastening to clarify that Jumbo is not involved in politics and that the decision will be made by the voter. And toward the end came another line that reminded us of the familiar Vakakis. Speaking about companies that have done their “homework” properly and can take advantage even of crises, he concluded with his own analogy: it is better, he said, “to ride a horse than a donkey.” In the end, even when he is off-form, he still leaves something behind.

Grivalia Hospitality: One & Only is a burden

Hotels are not an easy business. Grivalia Hospitality posted group-level losses of €16.91 million in 2025. Turnover increased to €110 million, while the cost of sales came to €108 million. The burden for Grivalia Hospitality continues to be the One & Only at Asteria Glyfada, for which—as stated in the report accompanying the results—as of 31/12/25 the company had invested €224.6 million. The project, it is noted, was financed with €148 million in equity and bank financing, while, as we learn, again from the results report, in May 2026 the company that owns the hotel in Glyfada received a €137 million loan from its parent company in order to fully repay a loan from Eurobank. Amanzoe in Porto Heli—which is doing extremely well—has absorbed only €70.5 million in investments, while €40.7 million had been invested by 31/12/25 in the development of the hotel at Petalioi. The other Grivalia Hospitality island in Panama, an excessively ambitious and ultimately unviable investment, had absorbed €37.6 million in investments by 31/12/25, and it is noted that the companies were transferred for €36 million.

A golden year for mutual funds

With the nine-month period almost over, the mutual-fund market is experiencing its best year in many decades. In total, €2.7 billion has been invested since the beginning of the year across the entire range of options offered by collective investment products. The largest inflows were recorded in International Bond Mutual Funds, at €1.173 billion; Special-Type Composite Mutual Funds, at €340.4 million; Mixed Mutual Funds, at €300.8 million; and Developed-Market Equity Mutual Funds, at €260.6 million. Greek Equity Mutual Funds attracted €179.2 million. Until a few days ago, the largest inflow this year was recorded by Eurobank’s equity mutual fund, at €68.9 million, but the asset management company with the largest inflows is Piraeus Asset Management, with six products and total inflows of €132.8 million. For the whole of 2025, domestic equity mutual funds had recorded inflows of €237 million. In addition to management fees, bank-owned asset management companies can look forward to another year of high revenues from performance.

DIMAND: The large logistics hub in Thessaloniki and the €2.2 billion pipeline

Although the €440 million Cambas Gardens may be one of DIMAND’s largest projects, another very important investment by the company in Northern Greece is now moving into the implementation phase. On the former VALKAN site, at the 15th kilometer of the Thessaloniki–Edessa road, the group is planning a modern logistics hub with a total area of approximately 120,000 sq. m., on a plot of 355,648 sq. m. DIMAND describes it as the largest logistics hub in Northern Greece, and the installation of photovoltaic panels on the roofs is also planned. For the first phase, covering approximately 56,800 sq. m., a building permit has already been issued. The importance of this particular project becomes greater when viewed within DIMAND’s overall pipeline. At the end of June 2026, the group had 16 investment projects under management, compared with 13 at the end of 2025, with a total fair value of almost €500 million and an estimated Gross Development Value of €2.19 billion, compared with €1.36 billion just six months earlier, according to its financial statements. Thessaloniki, moreover, is gaining greater weight in this picture. In addition to the logistics hub, DIMAND is promoting the redevelopment of the historic FIX site on 26th October Street, where a mixed-use tourism and residential complex of 51,450 sq. m. is planned, while it has already signed an agreement with Hilton for the hotel component of the project.

Giannis Masvoullas joins the Metlen Group

Giannis Masvoullas has taken over as the new head of investor relations at the Metlen Group. He will be based in London, alongside the investor-relations team in Athens. G. Masvoullas has a financial background, having come from Morgan Stanley’s research department, with studies at Warwick Business School, and holds the professional Chartered Financial Analyst qualification.

Quality and Reliability

Quality and Reliability announced a strong set of financial results. If the financial year had ended on June 30, Q&R would have recorded a historic profitability performance for a company of its size, since the listed company more than doubled its net profits to €1.8 million in the first half. The best profitability previously recorded on a full-year basis was €600,000, in 2023. In fact, the results have been burdened by €400,000 in extraordinary expenses.

Alpha Bank: An “elevator”

Alpha Bank went from the lows to the highs, leading yesterday’s recovery in the banking sector. Although it fell as much as 2.24% and traded around the €4.4 mark, it ultimately closed with gains of 2.06%, just below €4.6, rebounding after the stock’s two-day decline. At the day’s high, it reached €4.622, meaning it recorded an intraday gain of as much as 2.62%.

Pressure on PPC despite the target-price upgrade

PPC shares came under pressure among the blue chips, recording another significant decline and slipping below €23. Yesterday’s 3.04% drop was the stock’s worst daily performance in approximately a month and a half, while it marked the fifth consecutive negative session. Since the last positive day, on September 17, cumulative losses have exceeded 7%, despite the fact that the picture from analysts remains positive. Indicatively, Alpha Finance-AXIA raised its target price for PPC to €29.1, from €25.4 previously, confirming expectations for further growth. The recent correction is attributed more to the broader deleveraging climate and pressure on large-cap stocks than to any change in the company’s fundamental outlook.

Why Greek shipowners are turning their backs on alternative fuels

Uncertainty over the fuel of the future is not a theoretical discussion. It is already reflected in the orders placed by Greek shipowners. According to Petrofin Research, vessels capable of using LNG in the Greek newbuilding orderbook fell over 13 months from 97 to 92, while their share in terms of capacity dropped dramatically, from 21% to 12%. The picture is even more telling when it comes to the other alternative fuels. Methanol is limited to just four orders, with a total capacity of 324,800 dwt and a share of just 0.3%, while ammonia accounts for two vessels, totaling 120,000 dwt, or just 0.1% of the Greek orderbook. Only LPG shows some activity, with orders increasing from 25 to 33 vessels, although its share does not exceed approximately 2%. Faced with this fragmentation, Greek shipowners are doing something very specific. They are not choosing a winner yet. Orders for conventional propulsion surged from 429 to 678 vessels, with their capacity almost doubling, from 40.9 million to 81.6 million dwt. The message behind the numbers is clear. LNG, methanol and ammonia continue to compete for a place in the future of shipping, but none has yet secured global availability, adequate bunkering infrastructure and predictable costs simultaneously. And when a newbuild has to make money for 20 or 25 years, the Greeks today prefer to keep their options open rather than bet tens of millions on the fuel that may turn out to be the wrong winner. And all this despite the fact that it will not be only one alternative fuel that prevails, but… Drill baby drill…

The “total football” system among the Greeks in shipping

Anyone following Greek shipping over the past seven days is seeing more than a series of deals. They are seeing the Greeks playing aggressively on market timing. Some are buying, others are building, others are selling at high valuations, and some are locking in the cash flows of the coming years from now. They are pressing across the entire length and breadth of the field, reminiscent of a team playing total football. Byron Vassiliadis launched the Lady Marianna, the first newbuild of Venergy, as part of a program that will reach at least 22 tankers. Angeliki Frangou placed an order for the construction of four containerships, with a total value of $491 million. At Ioanna Prokopiou’s Sea Traders, construction is proceeding on the Kamsarmax Makronisos, 82,000 dwt, with delivery scheduled for early 2027. Semiramis Paliou, through Diana Shipping, secured two consecutive increases in charter rates: the Astarte to $17,000 per day from $12,500, and the DSI Polaris to $18,000 from $12,250, with the second contract bringing in at least $10.37 million. Evangelos Pistolis, through TOP Ships, already has $680.4 million in potential contracted revenues from the newbuilding program, together with the optional periods. Meanwhile, Marielena Prokopiou and Konstantinos Lampsias, through Akrotiri Tankers, are moving for the first time from tankers into specialized gas shipping, ordering two Very Large Ammonia Carriers—VLACs—from New Times Shipbuilding, each with a capacity of 93,000 cubic meters, with delivery in 2029. Dorian LPG, owned by John and Alexandros Chatzipateras, agreed to sell the Captain John NP to Chinese interests, with the transaction price placed between $75 million and $77 million.

When Europe is looking for warships, Greece is already there

Now that Brussels has discovered that six warships are not enough to protect shipping in the Red Sea and is urgently seeking reinforcements, Athens can remind them of something simple. Greece is already there. With the Hellenic Navy on the front line, Greek frigates having been deployed successively to the region and, above all, with the operational headquarters of EUNAVFOR ASPIDES in Larissa, with command of the mission in the hands of Greek Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis. Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, is now asking for more than ten warships for ASPIDES. For Athens, however, the matter goes far beyond yet another European military mission. It is a Greek shipping and geopolitical interest. The country that controls the world’s largest merchant fleet has every reason to have a military presence wherever freedom of navigation is at stake. The Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden are the links in the chain connecting Asia with the Suez Canal, Piraeus and the European market. Athens has an opportunity to turn the global economic weight of Greek-owned shipping into geopolitical capital. The ASPIDES operation, therefore, protects commercial vessels. For Greece, however, it is also building something bigger. A naval presence far beyond the Aegean.

They are trying to empty the swimming pool with a sponge

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Foreign Capitals, K.M. and the Pressure at the Ballot Box, Nikos A.’s Airport Transfers and Alexis’ Bench — Let’s All Go to Katerina for Psychotherapy

The measures and the difficult winter, what K.M. said (and what he didn’t), the PASOK and PAOK transfers, a super deal in technology is coming, billions raining down on the Athens Stock Exchange today

Yesterday at midday, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.438%, its highest level since June 2004. In March 2020, it had reached a historic low of around 1%; today it pays 4.4 percentage points more. The 10-year Treasury was at 5.139%, its highest level since July 2007. At the beginning of the year it was 4.15%. The 2-year was at 4.897%. In Japan, the 10-year surged to 3.055%, its highest level since 1996. This means that 30-year bonds in 6 of the 7 G7 countries are at their highest levels in the past 15 years. The American Treasury Secretary is making desperate efforts, issuing Treasury bills to finance the purchases he is making of longer-term bonds. On August 19, with the debt surpassing $40 trillion, Bessent unexpectedly doubled the repurchases of long-term securities, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, through November 4. The 30-year yield fell from 5.26% to 5.19% for one day and returned the following day. On September 10, the operation was increased to $6 billion, triple the previous amount. The 10-year reached 4.85%. Two weeks later, 5.14%. Bessent is trying to empty the debt swimming pool with the sponge of purchases. For Greece, the 10-year had already risen to 4.29%, from 4.02–4.07% at the beginning of September. While the spread over German bonds is holding up, the base against which it is measured is constantly moving upward.

Oracle’s problems in the desert

In the desert of New Mexico, in Doña Ana County, there is a 5,700-acre site intended for one of the largest data centers in the world. They call it Project Jupiter. It is being built for OpenAI, as part of a $400 billion agreement it signed last year with Oracle and SoftBank for five such centers in the United States, the Stargate program. Construction is being handled by Stack Infrastructure, a company owned by Blue Owl Capital, which is also putting in its own capital. Oracle is the tenant. The target for operations is 2028. Except that Jupiter is not proceeding as planned. Environmental organizations have gone to court. Residents are protesting, and with the midterm elections approaching, politicians are listening to them. On September 17, the state Supreme Court rejected the emergency appeals and the bulldozers started up again, but the main lawsuits are continuing and the permits are still under review. Yesterday, Bloomberg revealed that Oracle sent the developer a formal “force majeure” notice. In contractual language, this means: “if the building is not ready in 2028 for reasons beyond my control, I will not pay rent for something that is not operating.” Oracle is not walking away from the project. It is locking the exit door, in case it needs it. The market read the move negatively and the stock lost as much as 5% in premarket trading. Blue Owl responded that “nothing is changing” regarding the financial commitments. Oracle said nothing else. Until yesterday, the term “force majeure” was a clause at the end of the contract that nobody read. In artificial-intelligence projects, it has become the central tool. A delay in permitting cascades through the construction, electricity, insurance and financing contracts. Who pays for the delay is now the real question.

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