Russia’s federal budget revenues from taxes on oil and gas, which account for approximately one-fifth of total state revenue, are expected to rise by 10% year-on-year in October, reaching 1 trillion rubles ($11.97 billion), according to Reuters calculations.

Oil and gas tax revenues are expected to more than double this month compared with September, mainly due to quarterly payments of the additional tax on profits from oil production. Excluding this tax, October revenues are expected to exceed September’s levels by approximately 164 billion rubles, or 36%.

Reuters’ calculations are based on data on oil and gas production, refining volumes, and supplies to domestic and international markets.

Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer and exporter after the United States and Saudi Arabia, relies heavily on oil and gas sales, which help finance its military campaign in Ukraine.

International oil prices have surged as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts supplies. However, the positive impact of higher oil prices will be partly offset by an estimated 5% decline in production in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Russia’s 2026 budget is based on oil and gas revenues of 8.918 trillion rubles, out of total projected revenues of 40.283 trillion rubles.

According to Reuters’ estimate, total oil and gas revenues for the January–October 2026 period are expected to reach 6.45 trillion rubles, representing a 14% decrease compared with the same period last year.