The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, marking yet another milestone in the powerful global bond sell-off, driven by surging energy prices, rising debt, and inflationary pressures.

The yield on the benchmark security for global bond markets rose by as much as 5 basis points today, reaching 5.04%, surpassing its 2023 high and touching its highest level since 2007.

The latest upward move followed another rise in international oil prices, as concerns about energy supplies from the Middle East intensified.

The Fed in focus

According to Bloomberg, the sell-off in bonds is raising the stakes ahead of the Fed’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with investors expecting officials to increase short-term borrowing costs for the first time since July 2023.

If the Fed does not raise interest rates, or if its Chair, Kevin Warsh, signals less monetary tightening over the coming months than financial markets have already priced in, bond investors may demand even higher yields as compensation for inflation risks.

“It would be very difficult for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged this week without damaging its credibility in the fight against inflation,” said Weil Hartman, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

He added that “the market is vulnerable not only to an unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged, but also to a ‘dovish’ hike, which would be accompanied by a more patient message through the dot plot or the press conference.”

If you want, I can also make this more natural/idiomatic financial English, rather than a close translation.