Just days remain before the state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to hold a clear lead in the polls. In recent weeks, however, the Social Democrats (SPD) have clawed back some of the ground they had lost, with state premier Manuela Schwesig embarking on a polarising election campaign aimed at weakening potential post-election coalition partners. This has prompted a reaction from both the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Left Party (Die Linke), who see the election campaign developing into a personal duel between Schwesig and AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm.

In its latest polling, ZDF’s “Political Barometer” put the AfD at 37%, just three percentage points ahead of the SPD. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats are polling at just 7%, and if that figure is confirmed at the ballot box, it would be the party’s worst result in post-war German history. It would be another major “slap in the face” following the disastrous result in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.

Is the AfD’s lead narrowing?

In the ZDF poll, the AfD’s lead appears to have narrowed compared with surveys conducted by other polling institutes in recent months. Nevertheless, another poll by Infratest-dimap for the television network ZDF showed a five-percentage-point gap.

State premier Manuela Schwesig is presenting herself as the main counterweight to the right-wing populists, seeking to mobilise as many voters as possible in that direction. Indeed, when asked in the poll, “Who would you like to be state premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?”, Schwesig receives support of up to 61%, far ahead of AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm, who is limited to 28%.

The “smaller parties” react

While the SPD is gaining ground in the polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — in contrast to the party’s nationwide trend — this strategy is causing losses and irritation among the smaller parties, including the Left Party (Die Linke), which currently governs the state in coalition with Schwesig. Recently, the Left’s leader in the state, Hennis Herbst, described the situation as a “supposed election duel” at a time when broader majorities are needed for policies promoting social justice. “And those majorities can only be achieved with the Left,” he stressed.

The Greens, who won 6.3% in the 2021 state election, are polling around the 5% electoral threshold, and Manuela Schwesig can only hope that the Greens will ultimately manage to re-enter the state parliament in Schwerin, making it easier for her to be re-elected as premier. As for the Free Democratic Party (FDP), it is now sinking into obscurity, polling at no more than 3%, compared with 5.8% in 2021.

“Historic lows for the CDU”?

The biggest loser is undoubtedly the CDU, which appears to be crushed between the two strongest political forces. Its candidate for state premier, Daniel Peters, warns that “polarisation results in the further strengthening of the AfD”. Polarisation will also be one of the reasons for “one of the worst election results in [the party’s] history”, warns Eckhardt Rehberg, who for many years headed the party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The CDU appears to be continually losing support among voters. At the beginning of the summer, it was polling at around 10%, but in the polls conducted last Thursday — both for ZDF and ARD — it has fallen to 7%. At the same time, the ARD poll puts the AfD at 38%, up from 35% at the beginning of September. The Christian Democrats are also on 7% in a poll by the Insa Institute for the newspaper Nordkurier, conducted between 1 and 8 September.