The “3” at the front is the first picture. Opinion Poll’s projection of 126 seats comes with the necessary caveat. At the Maximos Mansion, New Democracy is seen returning to the 30%-31% range, with a wide lead over its rivals, without, however, considering the job finished.

The Mitsotakis line

Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself is setting the political tone. At the General Assembly of SELPE, he spoke of the need for politics to listen to citizens, not take them for granted and adapt quickly. He summed it up with the phrase: “We are not irreplaceable by default.”

In political terms, the message being sent to ministers and party officials is simple: step up the pace. Not because the polls are sending a negative signal, but because 30%-31% is simply “the springboard for a single-party majority”, as a government source tells protothema.gr.

The 30%-31% and the wide gap

The needle stops at roughly the same level in the two latest polls. Opinion Poll, conducted for Action24, puts New Democracy at 31% in the vote estimate, ELAS at 15.9% and PASOK at 12.1%. In voting intention, New Democracy stands at 25.7%, while undecided voters reach 16.9%. Pulse gives New Democracy 30.5%, ELAS 17% and PASOK 12% in its scenario for allocating undecided voters.

The picture, however, does not show a spectacular jump after the Thessaloniki International Fair. In Pulse, New Democracy moves from 26% to 26.5% in voting intention, while in Opinion Poll the estimate rises by half a percentage point. It is more a case of stabilisation with a slight increase than a change of level.

That is why the government is not treating today’s percentage as the final destination. A single-party majority remains the goal, but publicly it has been described as a goal that “is some distance away” and requires “work, effort, results and humility”, with the final decision belonging to the citizens.

The 126 seats and the gap to the target

In Opinion Poll’s projection of parliamentary seats, 31% gives New Democracy 126 seats in an eight-party Parliament. ELAS gets 49 and PASOK 38. Put simply, the gap from the second party is one thing, while the gap from the 151-seat threshold is another.

That is why the government team’s interest is not limited to who comes second. The focus has shifted to whether New Democracy can win back voters who are currently keeping their distance and draw support from the large pool of people who have not yet made up their minds.

The findings beneath the party percentages are even more interesting. In Opinion Poll, Kyriakos Mitsotakis scores 31.5% when citizens are asked whom they trust most to deliver on their economic commitments. Alexis Tsipras is on 15% and Nikos Androulakis on 10%.

Yet the largest overall response is “none”, at 35.1%. Pulse sends a similar message. When the question becomes more specific — namely, whether the measures presented can actually be implemented — Kyriakos Mitsotakis scores 30%, Alexis Tsipras 17% and Nikos Androulakis 16%.

There is a lead in direct comparisons. However, that does not mean that a majority has been convinced, according to one experienced figure from the governing majority. This is also where the Prime Minister’s emphasis on credibility comes in. In Parliament, he repeated the line “we said it, we do it”, linking the new commitments to those already implemented and to measures which, as he said, are “costed down to the last euro”.

The pocketbook: the difficult test

If there is one area keeping the expectations bar lower, it is everyday life. Opinion Poll records as the leading criterion for the final voting choice, at 39%, a guarantee of an improvement in living standards. This is followed by the need for change at 29.2% and the need for stability at 27.5%. The identity of the prospective prime minister is much lower, at 14.5%.

Pulse sends a similar message. When asked whose economic pledges are best suited to tackling the cost of living, Kyriakos Mitsotakis scores 25%, Alexis Tsipras 19% and Nikos Androulakis 11%. The top response is “none”, at 31%.

These are not messages unfamiliar to the Prime Minister’s office. Hence Mitsotakis’s insistence on the principle that “growth must reach citizens and become a real benefit in their everyday lives”. He had made the same point at the Thessaloniki International Fair, saying that the strong performance of the economy must be reflected in the family budget.

For the Maximos Mansion, this is perhaps the most difficult test of the coming months. The positive economic figures need to be felt more clearly in disposable income, at the supermarket, in energy costs and at the fuel pumps.

Those outside the “fold”

Finally, there is one finding from Pulse that is particularly significant for the battle to bring voters back into the fold. Among those who voted for New Democracy in 2023 but would not choose it today, 15% say they “definitely” could vote for a new party led by Antonis Samaras, while another 17% say “probably”. That makes 32% in total. Among New Democracy’s currently consolidated voters, the corresponding responses add up to just 8%.

These are figures that do not constitute a forecast of the share of a hypothetical party. They do, however, show that a section of New Democracy’s former electoral base remains open to other options.