Hello, I was writing to you yesterday as well that the most interesting finding in the latest polls is Kasidiaris. And this is because the specific person, without having even formed a party yet—and without our knowing constitutionally whether he can or cannot do so—has swept up the numbers on the right and far right, apart from New Democracy, that is, votes that under no circumstances would go to the governing party. By contrast, for example, in one of the polls three weeks ago, Samaras was measured at 4% in voting intention and at 5% to 6% in the estimate, whereas now, following Kasidiaris’s announcement, he (the former prime minister) is measured at just 3.2%. But what is the “problem”? That the votes Kasidiaris may receive, because they come from people who would not even go to the polls, raise the electoral threshold, with the result that this does not benefit the first party. On the other hand, of course, can you imagine Samaras thinking that if he himself forms a party he will run the risk of entering Parliament, while the man he himself put in prison years ago, Kasidiaris, could get as much as 8%? I did, of course, ask my source at the Maximos Mansion about all this, and he replied that “the analysis being made on the matter is correct, but of course it is still far too early to see what will happen with these two cases.” In any event, it is true that Kasidiaris is sweeping up the far-right wing, and the entire political system knows this.

The difficult winter and Mitsotakis’s support measures

It may have gone somewhat under the radar, but during his appearance in Parliament yesterday, K.M. warned of a “difficult winter” ahead. The basic problem facing the government, but also all European governments, is that the pressure is coming from two directions, both from the Gulf and from the war in Ukraine, and there are not many national resources available, while at the same time there appears to be no willingness for a comprehensive European intervention that would give the member states some breathing room. In other words, everyone will have to get themselves out of trouble on their own. A first discussion took place yesterday among the Mitsotakis-Hatzidakis-Pierrakakis-Papastavrou circle, and decisions for October are expected shortly, while Petralia, who controls the purse strings, is once again running the numbers to see the country through the winter. In any case, Greece will not be among the countries imposing a new extraordinary levy on refineries. And, from what it appears, the measure will not be mandatory at European level either. Today, in the interview Mitsotakis will give, he will announce support measures for households with regard to energy ahead of the winter. “No one will be left alone,” he will say.

Center-left salad

And while the government has various difficulties, things in the center-left resemble a salad. The appearance of leader Nikos from Thessaloniki and his message about an autonomous course was abruptly undermined by MP Panas, who estimated that post-election cooperation with Alexis Tsipras’s EL.A.S. could take place, only to receive a rebuke from Harilaou Trikoupi. And as if Panas were not enough, Vasia Anastasiou also appeared yesterday to say that PASOK could cooperate with the remnants of SYRIZA on the basis of their programmatic priorities, not with the individuals. Obviously, things cannot work this way, which is why PASOK remains stuck at the same levels, without capitalizing on the evident ceiling in the momentum of its leader, Alexis. Since I mention Alexis, I hear that Mayor Haris Doukas sat down and grabbed a quick bite with Alexis Charitsis, who is preparing for Tsipras’s party, immediately after the political funeral of Spyros Chalvatzis. Now, you will tell me that one meal by itself means nothing, but when you are constantly meeting with someone, obviously you also have something to say to one another politically.

And PASOK…rebranding

Since we are on the subject of the opposition, they say that our Nikos in PASOK, so that he cannot say we are not paying him any attention, was encouraged by the two polls by Pulse and Opinion Poll, which give him a slight rise, and is now waiting for Marc and Metron Analysis to see whether there is some kind of trend. I am told that he has also changed his communications firm or adviser (he had Sefertzis and then Kousoulis), as well as his speechwriter. If, among many other things, he also changes his political pattern, I would say he might have reason to hope that he will get something, but he knows best.

Pre-election clashes

And in New Democracy, of course, pre-election nerves are also stretched tight. After Minister Kerameos—who was the first to rush to disagree with Marinakis’s idea for the unemployment benefit—Dimitris Kairidis also came forward yesterday. What do all these people have in common? The pre-election arena of the Northern Sector of Athens B’, where there is a real slaughter. And Flōridis’s appearance in Thessaloniki, however, has also activated the reflexes of all the players, who realize that there will be a real battle over preference votes. It is said, however, that some also have alternative plans, with an eye on local government, since those elections are coming in 2028, after the national elections.

The bargaining over the European budget

At the European Parliament at the beginning of the week was Deputy Minister for European Affairs Tasos Hatzivasiliou, who met with President Roberta Metsola and heads of committees and groups, as he continues at an intensive pace the preparations for the Greek presidency and at the same time is dealing with the hot issue of the day: negotiations over the EU Budget for the 2028–2034 period. Greece’s position is in favor of an ambitious plan without across-the-board cuts. The same position is shared by 17 EU countries that make up the Friends of Cohesion group. Opposing them is the bloc of the “frugal” countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, etc.), which are calling for lower common expenditure. It is obvious that there will be considerable discussion of the issue at the October Summit, while Hatzivasiliou also briefed the President of the Republic on the matter yesterday.

The figures on demographic pressure

Greece’s demographic balance remained strongly negative in the first quarter of 2026, despite a marginal recovery in births and a reduction in deaths. Live births amounted to 15,946, an increase of 0.4% compared with the 15,889 recorded in 2025. During the same period, based on the first 13 weeks of the year, deaths fell to 33,113 from 34,130, marking a decline of 3.0%. Despite the relative improvement, deaths remained more than twice as numerous as births: for every birth, there were approximately 2.08 deaths. The natural decrease in the population amounted to approximately 17,167 people, compared with 18,241 in the corresponding period of 2025, a reduction of 1,074 people, or 5.9%. The figures show that demographic pressure eased slightly, without, however, altering the basic picture of the large gap between births and deaths. According to official data from the Ministry of the Interior, 43% of Greeks state that they have at least one pet in their home. The number of registered dogs and cats in Greece has exceeded the total number of children and adolescents (aged 0–14), who, based on the latest censuses, are estimated at approximately 1.32 million.

No (new) extension for the Swiss-franc arrangement

Time is running out for borrowers who have a loan in Swiss francs and want to take advantage of the arrangement that has been established. The decision of the Ministry of Finance appears to be final and, consequently, no new extension until the end of the year is expected, as had initially been estimated. Under the new circumstances, those concerned have a clear deadline by which to decide whether to join the arrangement, namely September 30, 2026. If they do so, they convert their mortgage loan from Swiss francs into euros and can benefit from the tiered “haircut” on the debt, depending on the relevant criteria. The process is in its final stretch and so far approximately 65% of borrowers have responded. It is estimated that the percentage could reach approximately 70% as we approach the expiry of the deadline.

The Kampa villa and DIMAND

After decades of abandonment, the historic Kampa villa in Kantza is acquiring a new lease on life. Crews from a construction company have already begun cleaning the property; rubbish and debris are being removed, and trees that had grown even inside the building are being uprooted, since its roof had collapsed. The reconstruction of the villa is just one part of the €440 million investment that Dimand will implement at the Kampa Estate, with completion targeted within the next four years. According to the Environmental Impact Assessment that has been put out for public consultation, the Campas Gardens development, with a total built-up area of approximately 92,000 sq. m., including ancillary spaces, is estimated to accommodate approximately 7,000 employees and visitors on a daily basis. At the heart of the plan is an office complex (Office Park), complemented by commercial uses and dining, while the restoration and adaptive reuse of the historic Kampa Winery as a cultural hub is also planned, as well as the showcasing of the old Kantza Railway Station. The project also includes a small hospitality unit, extensive green spaces, sports facilities, vineyards and olive groves. Financing is expected to consist of 35% private capital and 65% bank lending.

Kri Kri: Frozen yogurt and the exaggeration over a €1.1 billion market capitalization

In yesterday’s session, Kri Kri rose 3.15% and closed at €32.70, with an intraday high of €33.25, reaching a new all-time record. Trading activity was increased, with turnover approaching €1.4 million and the company’s total market capitalization now approaching €1.1 billion. Kri Kri is unquestionably a good company with good prospects, but €1.1 billion is too much, even if Americans and Chinese eat frozen yogurt from morning till night. With strong upward momentum, the share of Euronext Athens also rose 3.55%, closing at €8.47, a level not seen in 18 years. The share is now targeting the psychological €9 level, which it last touched in June 2008.

Qualco: Strong backlog “points to” acceleration in the second half

Qualco Group closed the first half with double-digit revenue growth, but profitability absorbed the cost of the next phase of expansion. Sales increased by 14% to €101.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 3% to €13.4 million, with the margin declining to 13.2%. The pressure on margins is mainly linked to increased investment in project-delivery capabilities, Artificial Intelligence and dual-use technologies, while at the adjusted bottom-line level a small loss of €0.6 million was recorded. The substance, however, lies more in what is coming. International revenues grew by 24% and reached €32.1 million, now accounting for almost one-third of turnover. Even more important is the five-year backlog of €762 million, with 44% coming from international customers, providing significant visibility for the coming years. Management is maintaining its target of approximately 15% revenue growth for 2026 as a whole and an EBITDA margin close to 20%, banking on strong seasonality, since approximately 60% of annual revenue is generated in the second half. At the same time, it expects a return to positive operating cash flows and a reduction in leverage to around 1x by year-end.

Piraeus Bank: Strong signal with €100 million turnover ahead of the rebalancing

Rising and playing a leading role in the banking sector, Piraeus Bank’s share closed at €10.69, approaching the year’s high of €10.80 and reaching levels not seen since March 2021. Trading activity was impressive, with turnover reaching €99.05 million and volume 9.23 million shares, a level not seen in eight months. A key feature of the session was the 10 block trades with a total value of €50.3 million, confirming the strong positioning of institutional portfolios. The intense activity is serving as a precursor to the forthcoming index restructuring (rebalancing) next Friday.

One in every four euros spent at the market is on a promotional product

Circana yesterday published its Market View for the first seven months of 2026, accompanied by a reassuring headline, namely that the value of sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in supermarkets rose by 5.6%. Turnover rose to €8.39 billion from €7.95 billion, with volumes up 3.6% and the average price up just 1.6%, while inflation over the same period was running at around 4%. Consequently, the report says, the gap between the value and volume of sales is narrowing. The interesting message, however, is hidden on two other pages. Some 26.2% of sales value now passes through temporary price reductions, up 1.5 percentage points in one year. For food, the figure is 27.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points. Put simply, one in every four euros at the checkout is spent on a product that is on promotion. Also, the share of private-label products has stalled at 27.2%, unchanged from last year and — for the first time “in a long while” — branded products are growing at the same rate (+5.2%). In 2025, non-branded products (private label) were growing at +7.5%, compared with +4.8%. This means that multinationals have stopped the erosion of their market shares not through lower shelf prices but through more promotional activity and offers. The average price of food rose 2%, non-alcoholic beverages 4.7%, and snacks 3%. Promotions kept consumers buying branded products without price reductions. In addition, Circana found that hypermarkets (over 2,500 sq. m.) are growing at +8.2% and small stores (up to 400 sq. m.) at +7.1%, while medium-sized supermarkets (1,000–2,500 sq. m.), which account for 43.4% of the market, remain at +4.8%.

When Attiki Odos measures the economy

From yesterday’s conference call between GEK TERNA management and analysts, we learned that toll-road traffic on Attiki Odos in July and August increased by approximately 2.5%, roughly in line with the first half (+2.4%), despite the fact that gasoline was more expensive because of Hormuz and Athenians were supposedly on the islands. ELSTAT has no better indicator of how the Attica economy is performing during the summer. The concession’s operating leverage turned the +2.4% increase in traffic into +7.7% EBITDA in the first half. We also learned from the conference call that construction margins did not move. Neither up nor down, but remained “the same,” in a year when energy and materials costs are putting pressure on the sector. The explanation lies in the composition of the €8.9 billion remaining backlog. 54% consists of the group’s own investments and 25% of private projects for third parties.

The country’s fifth systemic bank

Since 2013, Greece has had four systemic banks. At yesterday’s Investors Day, CrediaBank’s management gave a date for the fifth systemic bank. By the end of the year, it aims to come under the direct supervision of the European Central Bank. The route is known and runs through Malta. The acquisition of 70.03% of HSBC Malta (€200 million, 0.48x TBV) doubles the €8.5 billion balance sheet and activates the SSM criteria. Closing is scheduled for the first quarter of 2027, with approvals expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Management’s targets also include increasing market share from 3.5% today to 7% in 2030. A doubling in four years, in a market where the four major banks share more than 90%. The targets include loans of more than €11 billion in the medium term and €14 billion in the long term, net profits of more than €225 million and subsequently €325 million, NIM of 3%, cost-to-income of 30–40%, CET1 above 15%, and a dividend from 2026 profits. Credit expansion in the first half (€841 million) is running at a multiple of the system’s rate, while the absorption of Evropa Holdings adds bancassurance.

The 89 and the club that is getting smaller

Remember one number from the new Petrofin Research survey. Not the 6,822 ships, nor the 493.5 million dwt of the Greek-owned fleet. Remember 89. That is now the number of Greek shipping groups exceeding 1 million dwt, and together they control 80.81% of total capacity. And here lies a story that does not make as much noise as the multibillion-dollar orders at Asian shipyards. Greek shipping is growing, but at the same time it is becoming more concentrated. There are now 587 companies, compared with 588 last year, but the interesting point is not the difference of one company. It is about who can withstand a game that is becoming increasingly expensive. Because today it is not enough to have two or three good ships and good relationships with charterers. You need access to financing, technical infrastructure, purchasing power, people for regulatory and compliance matters and, of course, capital for newer tonnage. Petrofin itself points out that economies of scale favor the larger players, while smaller owners, particularly those with aging fleets, are under greater pressure. And now add to the equation the 679 newbuildings owned by Greeks, with total capacity of 60.4 million dwt. The next day, therefore, may not be decided solely by who will order more ships. It will also be decided by who will be able to remain at the table. But the number of chairs is shrinking.

The Iranian “blacklist” and the Greek headache

Until now, the main fear of Greek shipowners in Hormuz was one thing: that one of their ships might be hit. Now another, more complex fear has been added. That the ship might end up on the wrong list. Tehran has raised to 77 the number of vessels it considers to have violated its own rules for transiting the Strait. Among them are vessels with Greek interests. The truly worrying part, however, is in the “fine print.” The Iranians are not only threatening fines, detention or even seizure during a future transit. They warn that ships cooperating with those already listed can also be added to the list, including through ship-to-ship transfers, while insurers, P&I Clubs and classification societies are also being brought into the picture. And this is where the Greek headache begins. Greek-owned shipping is so large and so heavily present in tankers that a blacklist acquiring chain-like characteristics could create operational complications far beyond the vessels actually named on it. This does not mean that Greek-owned shipping is under Iranian sanctions. It does mean, however, that every fixture, every STS and every passage through Hormuz now requires one more check. Who is on the other side, and on which list are they registered? In shipping, ultimately, it appears that blacklist risk has become part of voyage planning.

Greece as an infrastructure platform for Europe’s AI

Yesterday, a five-page “executive brief” was circulated by the U.S. Greece Trade & Investment Council, with a title that could be rendered as “From the backlash against Artificial Intelligence to a new transatlantic opportunity” for Greece. In the third section, “Strategic Message to Washington,” the report’s central narrative says that Greece has a unique opportunity to position itself as a “reliable strategic infrastructure platform” at the convergence of energy, Artificial Intelligence, connectivity and data management. Ahead of the November elections in America, Alexandros Kostopoulos of FORESIGHT records the backlash emerging in six states (Virginia, Texas, California, Illinois, Georgia and Ohio), where hyperscale facilities, the revival of nuclear energy through small modular reactors, and the concentration of capital among a few “technology and energy” business groups have opened a major debate over the cost of electricity. The conclusion is that the next phase of Artificial Intelligence infrastructure will be built “outside overburdened, politically contested domestic markets.” The report refers to the Pax Silica instrument, the State Department initiative (December 2025) for “trusted” AI supply chains. Greece signed the Declaration at the June 25–26 summit in Washington, together with the EU, Germany and the Netherlands. There are 24 members in total. The proposal of the U.S. Greece Trade & Investment Council is for Greece to become a major infrastructure platform and for the Vertical Corridor to serve as the “backbone” of the digital and defense architecture of the Balkans, with an eye toward the reconstruction of Ukraine. At the end, eight strategic players are mentioned as potential leading participants in this effort: PPC, METLEN, HELLENiQ Energy, Motor Oil, AKTOR, AVAX, Hellenic Cables and the Copelouzos Group.