Greece is facing a deepening and persistent demographic shift. The decline in births has left a particularly strong mark on the country’s regions, with data showing a long-term decline in fertility accompanied by population ageing and an increase in deaths, according to new findings from the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies.

From approximately 148,000 births on average in 1979–1980, the country recorded just 67,000 in 2024–2025. At the same time, the average age at which women have children increased by almost six years, from 26.2 to 32.2. The downward trend began in the late 1970s and, with the exception of the 2003–2009 period, has continued to this day.

The decline in population is not uniform across the country. Between 2009 and 2024, births fell by 42% nationwide, from 117,440 to 68,310. In six prefectures of mainland Greece — Thesprotia, Grevena, Phthiotis, Kozani, Evrytania and Florina — the decline exceeded 50%. By contrast, in several island regions, the decline in births has been significantly smaller, while in the Cyclades and Zakynthos it remained below 15%.

A key factor has been the decline in fertility across generations. Women born in the late 1950s had an average of around two children, while for those born around 1985, the figure fell to fewer than 1.5. At the same time, the annual fertility rate fell from approximately 2,200 children per 1,000 women in 1979–1980 to just 1,240 in 2024–2025.

The picture becomes even more concerning when deaths are taken into account. The natural population balance — the difference between births and deaths — has now moved firmly into negative territory, according to the same study. While births exceeded deaths by 638,000 during the 1971–1980 decade, the surplus fell to 276,000 in the following decade and to just 22,000 in 1991–2000. By contrast, between 2011 and 2020, there were 267,000 more deaths than births, while in the five-year period from 2021 to 2025 alone, the difference reached 290,000.

More specifically, in 2024 there were 184 deaths for every 100 births nationwide, compared with 92 in 2009. In some Regional Units, the ratio reached as high as 376 deaths per 100 births. Only five — Thera, Mykonos, Kos, Naxos and Rethymno — of the 74 Regional Units recorded more births than deaths.

What accounts for the differences?

The major regional disparities are linked, according to the analysis, to three main factors: differences in fertility trends, demographic ageing and migration flows. Areas that have retained or attracted younger residents have experienced more moderate population losses, while those that have lost a large share of their younger population are simultaneously facing fewer births and more deaths.

Based on the above, it appears that Greece’s demographic problem is not developing in the same way across the country. The country’s demographic map is changing, with population decline hitting hardest in areas characterised by a combination of low fertility, ageing and population loss.