Marine Le Pen and her rival from the radical left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are gaining momentum ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election, according to a poll published on Wednesday.

The findings point to growing polarization in France’s political landscape as President Emmanuel Macron’s time in office draws to a close.

Le Pen is projected to lead the first round of voting with 37% or 38%, depending on the scenarios examined by polling firm Odoxa in a survey conducted among 12,000 people between September 24 and October 7. Mélenchon ranks second, with 18% or 18.5% in both scenarios.

The polling figures are based on scenarios in which the two candidates face a centrist contender: either Édouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal, both former prime ministers under Emmanuel Macron. Philippe is projected to secure 17% of the vote, while Attal would receive just 11%.

Le Pen is expected to defeat Mélenchon comfortably in the second round. She would also prevail, albeit by a narrower margin, if she faced Philippe.

Macron’s declining popularity as he completes his two presidential terms has narrowed the political space available to the center in France.

Mélenchon has already run for president three times—in 2012, 2017 and 2022—but has never managed to reach the second round. Le Pen has also been a candidate in all three elections. In 2017 and 2022, she advanced to the second round but was defeated by Macron.

The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for April 18, with the decisive second round set for May 2.