Europe is facing an unprecedented wave of air fare increases as the continuing conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices dramatically drive up airlines’ operating costs.

The warning came from Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary, who predicted that flight ticket prices could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, marking the largest increase ever seen in the European aviation market.

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday, the head of the Irish low-cost airline said fare increases were now unavoidable, as carriers could no longer absorb the rising cost of fuel.

According to O’Leary, European airlines will seek to pass a significant proportion of the additional cost of jet fuel on to passengers. However, even a 20% increase in fares may not be enough to offset the higher expenses, putting further pressure on airlines’ profit margins.

“We will see the biggest increase in air fares in the history of Europe over the next 12 months,” he said, according to Bloomberg.

O’Leary also questioned whether higher ticket prices would be sufficient to cover the substantial increase in fuel costs. “The question is whether that increase will be enough to cover the dramatically higher oil bills. I don’t believe it will be,” he said.

Soaring energy costs have become one of the biggest challenges facing the aviation industry, which is grappling with the consequences of the escalation of the war with Iran earlier this year. Higher jet fuel prices have already increased costs for airlines worldwide, while also weighing on demand for air travel.

The Ryanair chief noted that most European airlines, including his own, have little significant protection against fluctuations in oil prices for 2027 through fuel hedging arrangements. This means carriers will be more exposed if oil prices remain elevated.

At the same time, limited available capacity in the European market and rising taxes are adding to the challenges facing the industry.

O’Leary was particularly critical of the regulatory and tax environment in several European countries, singling out France and Belgium. He said Ryanair plans to scale back its operations in both markets in response to higher taxes on aviation activities.

The airline boss also predicted that mounting operating costs would accelerate consolidation across Europe’s aviation industry. In his view, financially weaker airlines will find it increasingly difficult to survive, paving the way for further mergers and consolidation.

The challenges facing the industry have already affected Ryanair’s operational planning. In September, the company lowered its annual passenger target for the current financial year, announcing plans to offer fewer seats during the winter season, when travel demand is traditionally weaker.