Bulgarian voters go to the polls on Sunday, 25 October, to elect their president in a contest that is also shaping up to be a test for the government of Rumen Radev. Incumbent President Iliana Iotova is the frontrunner, with former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov as her main rival. If no candidate wins in the first round, a run-off will take place on 1 November.

A total of 27 candidates are standing in Sunday’s election. To be elected president in the first round, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote, with turnout exceeding 50% of the total electorate. If both conditions are not met, the two leading candidates will face each other in a second round, for which there is no minimum turnout requirement.

Iotova took office as president in January, succeeding Radev, under whom she had served as vice-president. Radev resigned to take part in the early parliamentary elections in April, in which his Progressive Bulgaria coalition won a landslide victory, paving the way for him to become prime minister.

Iotova’s candidacy is backed by Radev’s governing coalition and the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

Economist Andrey Gyurov, who served as caretaker prime minister earlier this year, is supported by the pro-European, reformist opposition coalition We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). In the presidential election, the opposition is seeking to rally voters who believe an independent institutional counterweight to Radev’s strong parliamentary majority is necessary.

The latest polls put Iotova in first place, with approximately 43% support, compared with 29% for Gyurov and 11% for Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the nationalist, pro-Russian Revival party. Turnout is expected to be close to 40%, according to the polls. If that figure is borne out on election day, a second round will be necessary regardless of the first-placed candidate’s share of the vote.

The Black Sea and the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine and security in the Black Sea have been central to the election campaign, following drone attacks on commercial vessels near the Bulgarian coast.

Iotova has called for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict and the formation of a coalition for peace, ruling out the deployment of Bulgarian troops to Ukraine. Gyurov has criticised the positions taken by the presidency and government in response to Russian threats, calling for clearer statements and concrete action to protect the country’s security.

The disagreement highlights longstanding divisions in Bulgarian society over relations with Russia and the country’s Western allies.

Particular importance also attaches to the position of voters supporting the opposition centre-right GERB party, led by Boyko Borissov. The party is not fielding its own candidate and has not officially endorsed any contender.

Borissov has said he will not vote for Iotova, while also expressing reservations about Gyurov. The turnout among GERB voters, and the choices they make in a potential second round, could prove decisive in determining the final outcome of the contest.

The role of Bulgaria’s president

The Bulgarian president serves a five-year term. Although Bulgaria is a parliamentary democracy, the president has the power to return legislation to parliament for reconsideration and plays an important role in representing the country and in national security.