US forces deployed in the Middle East say they are ready to launch new, potentially large-scale military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” the relevant order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials cited by CNN.

The same sources report that sufficient military forces have now been deployed to the region to carry out potential strikes, the scope of which would likely exceed the limited, intermittent operations that destroy targets but do not dramatically alter the situation.

This means the operations would not be limited to strikes against radars, missile launchers and other Iranian military assets that can be replaced or repaired relatively quickly, as had been the case since April, when Trump halted full-scale military operations.

“This would be a major operation,” one official told CNN. Other current and former US officials familiar with internal discussions about military planning share that assessment. Some even believe the question is not whether Trump will give the order, but when, estimating that it could happen at any point before the end of the year, although they consider the period after the US midterm elections more likely.

The challenges of the operation and potential targets

US officials acknowledge that a new military operation would face significant challenges, as Iranian forces are now more familiar with American military tactics. This would make it harder for the United States to effectively destroy all the targets it selected.

Nevertheless, the commanders of US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the Pentagon are working on an extensive list of targets that includes Iran’s energy infrastructure, military facilities and nuclear installations.

Officials point out that Trump has not yet decided how to proceed after the midterm elections, although he appears to be leaning towards the option of a major military operation. They also note that the US president has previously appeared ready to take specific actions, only to back away at the last moment.

A senior Pentagon official told CNN that “the department is an organisation that draws up plans, and its mission is to develop and execute the military options ordered by the president.”

US intelligence agencies warn of Iranian retaliation

Recent assessments by US intelligence agencies indicate that Iran and the Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of new attacks by the United States and, potentially, Israel very seriously, according to two additional sources familiar with the planning.

Consequently, if the United States and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis would likely respond immediately, targeting US personnel and facilities throughout the region and potentially beyond it.

Moreover, an unclassified memorandum dated 23 October, addressed by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, stated that US intelligence agencies had determined that “Iran has significantly intensified its efforts to target US personnel.” According to the memorandum, attack plans “have reached an advanced stage both in the Middle East and in certain other countries.”

US intelligence agencies believe that, at present, Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to launch the first attacks that would further escalate the conflict against US personnel or Israel. However, according to a source familiar with the latest US intelligence assessments, they would not hesitate to retaliate if Iran were attacked first by American or Israeli forces.

US withdraws personnel from embassies in the Middle East

The threat posed by Iran and the Houthis in the region is one reason the United States is expected to continue quietly withdrawing personnel from its embassies in the Middle East over the coming days.

Although the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is currently the only American diplomatic mission in the region for which a personnel-departure order has been issued, one source told CNN that similar instructions are expected for other missions. Meanwhile, embassies that do not receive such orders will reduce their staffing levels in accordance with maximum personnel limits.

In addition, US military personnel deemed non-essential who had been scheduled to travel to the Middle East as part of the next planned rotation have been informed that they will not be deployed to the region after all. A US official confirmed this information, adding to indications of a possible imminent escalation.

CENTCOM commander visits the Strait of Hormuz

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as the US military continues its blockade of Iranian ports and assists commercial vessels transiting the strategically important waterway.

According to a CENTCOM statement, Cooper “assessed current operational conditions” during a helicopter flight over the Strait. He also met with military personnel involved in operations to clear Iranian mines from the maritime area.

“We continue to stand alongside our partners in the Gulf and the maritime industry,” he said, adding: “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continuously ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Despite an increase in the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait, oil prices remain high, partly because of the threat of potential Iranian attacks. A US official acknowledged that the current situation around the Strait of Hormuz “is not sustainable” in the long term. In the absence of a last-minute diplomatic agreement, this situation is one of the factors that could lead Trump to opt for military action.

This is despite the continuing questions over whether the White House has a broader strategy for bringing the conflict to an end.

Israel pushes for new attacks on Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meanwhile pressing for new attacks against Iran. However, US officials have asked him to wait until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint military operations.

The information has been confirmed by two US officials and a source from Israel’s security services. “Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump to carry out a joint attack on Iran before the elections, but Trump did not give the green light,” the Israeli source told CNN.

According to the same source, one reason Trump refused was an assessment by Eyal Zamir, chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces. Zamir had pointed out to US General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that such an operation would harm Israel’s electoral process and lead to the postponement of the elections.

Over approximately the past week, Israel had been preparing for the possibility of launching new attacks against Iran and had been pressuring US officials to support and reinforce the strikes. However, senior US officials, including Trump himself, asked Israel to postpone the operations, while also indicating that the two countries would soon undertake joint military action.

According to all the sources, Israel appears to have postponed its plans for additional strikes for the time being, while stepping up preparations for possible joint operations with the United States, most likely after the American midterm elections.

Another reason Israel appears to have agreed to postpone the attacks is its need for American support with missile defence, according to the source who had been briefed on the discussions.

Iran and the Houthis are considered likely to retaliate against a new attack, while Israel’s stocks of defensive munitions have already come under significant strain during the war.

Netanyahu’s order to overthrow the Iranian regime

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clearly defined strategic objective beyond demonstrating some form of “progress” and continuing to weaken the Iranian regime.

However, during a speech this week at a graduation ceremony for the Israel Defense Forces, Netanyahu said he had instructed the military, Mossad and the other security services to work towards overthrowing the regime in Iran.

“The plans are ready and are waiting for Trump’s approval. It could come after the midterm elections,” the same source told CNN.