The European Commission’s latest report has confirmed, in particularly alarming terms, the bleak forecasts contained in successive studies on Greece’s demographic crisis.

The 2027 Ageing Report, published by the European Commission a few days ago, paints a stark picture of the country’s population trajectory.

According to the report’s figures for Greece, the population is projected to fall from 10.4 million in 2025 to 7.6 million by 2080. The decline is expected to be continuous over the coming decades: 10.2 million in 2030, 9.7 million in 2040, 9.2 million in 2050, 8.6 million in 2060, 8 million in 2070 and 7.6 million in 2080.

This decline is expected despite a slight increase in the average number of births per woman, from 1.2 to 1.45 over the same period.

The Commission’s study also shows that the number of people aged over 65 will continue to rise over the coming years. Those aged 80 and above are projected to see the sharpest increase over the coming decades, averaging 13%.

Overall, the population of the European Union is expected to rise from 452 million in 2025 to 453 million in 2029, before declining to an estimated 414 million by 2080 – an 8% fall compared with 2025.

This overall trend masks different population trajectories among member states. In 10 countries, the population is projected to be higher in 2080 than it is today. However, every country is expected to experience a shift towards an older age profile.

The proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise from the current 22% to 33% by 2080, while the share of those aged 80 and above will more than double, from 6% to 14%.

At the same time, the proportion of the population aged between 20 and 64 is projected to fall in every country, from 58% today to 51% of the EU’s total population. The median age is expected to increase from 45 to 51.

The old-age dependency ratio is also expected to rise. This measures the proportion of people aged 65 and over relative to the population aged between 20 and 64, illustrating how population ageing affects the balance between those receiving benefits and those paying into pension systems.

Across the EU, the ratio is projected to increase by around 27 percentage points, from 38% in 2025 to 65% in 2080, with most of the increase expected to have taken place by 2050.

In other words, the number of people aged between 20 and 64 for every 10 people aged 65 and over is expected to fall from 26 today to fewer than 16 by 2080.

Fertility

The EU’s total fertility rate is projected to rise from a historic low of 1.3 live births per woman in 2024 to 1.5 by 2080.

However, the report’s authors note that fertility rates will remain below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy for men in the EU is expected to increase by seven years, from 79 in 2025 to 86 in 2080.

For women, life expectancy is projected to rise by around six years, from 84 in 2025 to 90 in 2080, bringing the two sexes’ life expectancy figures closer together.