(UPD-23:00) 24h countdown to Greek 3rd bailout: An agreement is near

Thorny issues remain, but both sides can now taste an agreement

(UPD-23:00) 

It seems we will have to wait into the early morning hours of Tuesday before a final text is agreed upon between the Greek negotiating team, headed by Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and the creditors, as talks are continuing at the Hilton Hotel. Negotiations were carried over into Monday from Sunday all day. There has been a breakthrough, as the two sides did find some common grounds on a number of issues. However, one of the main matters of contention still remains how the 50bln Euro Asset Fund will operate. Although the Greek side is optimistic a deal can be reached, there is concern about the German insistence that a another bridge-loan will be needed, something the Greek government disputes.

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(UPD-19:30) 

Exiting the Maximos Mansion, Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said the Greek government was working hard to achieve an agreement with its creditors stressing that ‘we are focused on our target’.

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(UPD-17:30) 

Negotiations at Hilton Hotel between Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and Greek Economy Minister George Stathakis with the EU institutions’ representatives were stopped at 5.30pm Monday after the Greek team went to the Maximos Hall to take part in the Economic Policy Meeting of the Greek cabinet and brief PM Alexis Tsipras on the progress of talks with the Quartet. The Government insists the two Ministers will return to the negotiating table to hammer out a deal no-matter how long it takes. Immediately after they left the Hilton, a government source said there was agreement on the majority of what to be included in the final text, adding that some issues like the 50bln Euro Asset Fund and the ‘red loans’ had yet to agreed on.  The Quartet and the Greek side agreed on a zero surplus for 2015 and a 2.1-2.3% recession on GDP.

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“White smoke clouds” of peace emerged from the meeting between the Greek government and creditors, signaling that an agreement is near.
The marathon meeting on Sunday ran for 12 hours with both sides agreeing to a text for the deal at around 3.30 a.m. (local time).
Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and Economy Minister George Stathakis are expected at the Athens Hilton at 10 a.m. on Monday and will not leave until they have the final form of the deal in their hands.

At the meeting on Sunday, there was convergence of views as both sides agreed on one text that is to be announced and signed on Monday night.
“We are now preparing the final text, tomorrow it will be over,” said one official negotiating on Sunday.

The deal is to include pre-requisites for the first installment of the bailout tranche for Greece with a number of regulations that need to be immediately made effective. A time chart of measures until 2018 are being prepared for a loan worth 50-52 bln euros.

Questions are being left open regarding whether the measures will be enough, bearing in mind the fact that Greece’s macroeconomic scenario until 2018 has yet to be clearly examined. It is still unknown how the money will be disbursed to Greece and in which analogy (50-52 bln for the ESM, 16 bln for the IMF, 10 bln directly from purchases until 2018.)

Thorns of the agreement:
* non-performing loans
* different viewpoints in how agriculture should be handled
* emergency contribution with Greece wanting 8% for incomes over 400,000 so that incomes between 50-100,000 aren’t burdened
* creditors want a partial opening of the energy market
* VAT – the sale of meat will be at 13%, however there will be a 23% increase to private educational institutions, maybe even private schools
* early retirement issues
* labor issues, such as group contracts