European banks will move with strong distributions to shareholders, which will help a similar move by Greek banks, since Greek banks have significant capital adequacy.

Therefore, with their fundamentals at very satisfactory levels, it is unlikely that supervision will put the brakes on distributions. According to a recent JP Morgan study, the managements of European banks show prudent discipline in managing mergers and acquisitions, as well as in returning capital to shareholders.

These moves allow for stable capital returns to shareholders, with a projected payout ratio of around 75% for the period 2026-2027. Total return to shareholders is expected to be around 8%, of which approximately 5% is from dividends.

At the same time, Greek banks initially estimated that for 2025 they will make distributions that will hover around 50% of their earnings, revising all of this to the positive. Note that the capital ratios of Greek banks are very high, and there is no problem of wider distributions. So all banks are expected to move towards 60% and maybe some above this figure for the current fiscal year.