In just a few days, when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Ankara, he will formally seal the purchase of both used and new Eurofighter Typhoon jets by Turkey. Delighted, he will turn a new page in German–Turkish relations through an agreement that, as the saying goes, “has its cake and eats it too.”

On one hand, Ankara is rescuing its Air Force, which was in danger of being left without fighter jets; on the other, the consortium of countries involved in producing the Eurofighter is saving a program that was on the verge of being shut down due to a lack of buyers—since nearly everyone is now investing in the F-35.

Unsurprisingly, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who hastened to Turkey (where Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed him enthusiastically) “loaded” with two fighter jets originally intended for Qatar (which no longer wants them), emphasized in his statement about the $10.7 billion deal for the purchase of 20 Eurofighters—with another 20 likely to come from Qatar and Oman—that “20,000 jobs in the United Kingdom are secured through the open production lines in Edinburgh, Warton, Salisbury, and Bristol… the largest fighter deal of this generation,” adding that “this landmark agreement with Turkey is a win for British workers, a win for our defense industry, and a win for NATO’s security.”

Turkey’s problem and its solution

Turkey, which in the past had rejected offers to participate in the Eurofighter consortium, now finds a solution to its major aircraft shortage problem.

After being removed from the F-35 program due to its purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, and after Erdoğan’s last visit to Washington yielded no progress, Turkey has faced severe problems with the readiness of its aging F-16 fleet.

The problem

Turkey is struggling with F-16 upgrades (while Greece already operates the advanced Viper variant, which Turkey won’t receive before 2030). The same applies to spare parts, which the U.S. has refused to release.

As a result, Turkey has been left with F-16s at least 15 years old and F-4 Phantoms that have served for 50 years and are now in poor condition, meaning they’ll soon be retired.

As for the indigenous KAAN fighter, that project also shows no light at the end of the tunnel, as there are no engines available for its integration.

The solution

The solution comes in the form of the Eurofighter, produced by a consortium including the UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy, with Britain’s BAE Systems holding the largest share.

The fighter Turkey is purchasing—a “sibling” of the Rafale used by the Hellenic Air Force (both originated from the same European project before France developed the Rafale independently as a 4.5-generation jet)—is expected to be of the Tranche 4 or Tranche 5 version, the most advanced generations technologically.

Turkey will start receiving its first latest-generation Eurofighters in 2031, equipped with Meteor air-to-air missiles and in greater numbers.

Until then, however, its operational gap will be enormous, and the technological gap with the Greek Air Force—which will have F-16 Vipers, Rafales, and F-35s—will be impossible to close.

By the early 2030s, Greece will already possess 5th-generation aircraft, with the rest of its fleet being 4.5-generation; the U.S. will be developing or operating 6th-generation aircraft; and Turkey will be acquiring 4th or 4.5-generation jets.

That is exactly why the Eurofighter program was heading toward closure—Italy, for instance, chose the F-35 over the Eurofighter.

How Erdoğan “solves” the issue

Erdoğan partly resolves the issue by acquiring 20 used Eurofighters from Qatar and Oman. These are Tranche 3A versions, relatively outdated compared to newer models but still excellent in dogfighting capabilities.

Here again, we see a “win-win” (kazán-kazán) situation:

• Turkey immediately acquires modern fighters,
• while the Gulf countries conveniently offload aircraft that are outdated for them—jets with high acquisition, maintenance, and operating costs (roughly three times higher than an F-16V).

The reality in the skies

Turkish analysts are rightly concerned that until Turkey receives its 4.5-generation Eurofighters and upgraded F-16Vs, the Greek Rafales and Vipers will dominate the Aegean, and that once they arrive, it may already be “game over” because of the F-35s.

Currently, Turkey operates:

• 97 F-16C/D Block 40TM,
• 69 C/D Block 50TM,
• 29 Block 50+,
• 35 Block 30, and
• 13 F-4E 2020s.

In reality, however, the situation is worse:
The F-4s are in such poor condition that they will likely be retired immediately, while 35 of Turkey’s 230 F-16s are out of service due to the chronic shortage of spare parts caused by the U.S. embargo.

Ankara knows that buying the Eurofighter it once snubbed is a downgrade compared to the F-35, a dream that is now almost certainly dead—despite its propaganda to the contrary—especially since Israel, Washington’s closest ally, now has even more serious reasons to oppose Turkey’s re-entry into the 5th-generation fighter program.

Now, with this problem “solved,” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will receive Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a more relaxed manner.

Berlin finally gave in to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pressure to lift its veto (which was due to Turkey’s stance on Hamas) and allow the sale of Eurofighters to Turkey—while emphasizing that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis had been informed from the start and received assurances that the fighters would be used…strictly within NATO’s framework and “never against another member of the Alliance”(sic).