-Hello, President Trump will end the war whenever he feels like it (when he feels like it), his circle says publicly. And the whole planet hopes… that he won’t delay, because things will probably get worse from here on out as long as it continues. The prolonged crisis that will keep oil and natural gas prices high will clearly lead the global economy downward, most likely into recession. And theoretically Trump doesn’t want that, because at the end of the year come the midterm elections in America, which he doesn’t want to face amid recession and high prices… As is understood, the Iranians will never free up the Strait of Hormuz unless they get an overall agreement with the US and Israel. We are watching, if not holding our breath, at least with evident concern, like the rest of Europe anyway. If the war continues past Easter, that is, if we move into April, it is certain that tourism will face issues at least in the first stretch, the May–June arrivals, but also in finalizing bookings.

Measures for the crisis
-Listening yesterday to K.M. in the discussion he had at the Bloomberg energy event, I understand that at the Brussels Summit he will go in tomorrow with a clear line on the need for measures, short-term and medium-term, for the disruption in the energy market. Obviously not all European leaders want this, which is why Thursday’s Summit is expected to last until the wee hours. A first taste of this was also received (and conveyed to Maximos) by Stavros Papastavrou at the EU Energy Ministers’ meeting, where, as usual, the countries of the South called for more immediate intervention and firefighting measures so we don’t relive the negative scenario of the 2022 energy crisis, while the countries of Northern Europe insisted that we should wait to assess the consequences, possibly by the end of spring. Yeah right… My (Greek) source in Brussels, however, has the impression that the northerners’ objections to measures will soon bend, and various packages are already being discussed, from an energy escape clause to others such as teleworking, free public transport so people don’t use their cars, etc.

Pierr and the scenarios
-I was writing to you yesterday about Pierr, who completed two days of dense contacts in Paris. Beyond the Euronext conference—for which we write below—the most interesting one-on-one was with Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency, where all the response scenarios to the shock markets are once again going through were put on the table. Birol spearheaded the decision to release reserves from Gulf countries, in an effort to ease global concerns about supply and prices, while Pierr will depart on Thursday for the EU Summit, where he will be alongside Mitsotakis.

Clash of titans in Parliament
-Back to our own mundane matters, in Parliament the taxi battle is unfolding. Thymios and the taxi drivers have taken to the streets, yesterday they marched from Marnis to Parliament and Thymios even went inside, where he met with ND parliamentary group deputy secretary Marilena Soukoulis, presenting his demands. An observer of the column spotted him, as usual, swearing at Minister Kyranakis over the bill he brought, but the real show will happen today at the hearing of stakeholders on the bill. There Thymios will go to speak within earshot of Kyranakis, for whom a leaflet has already circulated declaring him persona non grata for taxis, while representatives of the Competition Commission, Uber, and the Center for Liberal Studies will also be present. So… a clash of titans is expected.

Dimas–VOAK
-Given that the Recovery Fund expires in the summer, all ministries are making last-minute adjustments so they don’t lose funds needed for projects. That’s what Infrastructure Minister Dimas did, who is heavily engaged with the VOAK issue, resulting in construction works on the three sections of the road axis being removed from the Recovery Fund due to construction difficulties, but road safety projects being included instead in the planning so that the funds and the opportunity are not lost.

PASOK–Christodoulakis
-Let’s move briefly to PASOK matters: now there is a new groom for leader, Manolis Christodoulakis, who is leaking that he secured one-third of the delegates and is galloping toward the leadership of the next day, when… Androulakis runs aground in the elections. Meanwhile Nikos has been… hugging the reef for two years now, but that’s another story. So yesterday Christodoulakis posted that he says “no to co-governance with New Democracy.” Mayor Charoulis saw it, was pleased, and also declared: “With great pleasure I note that our front against PASOK co-governing with ND is expanding. At the Congress all together, to take the relevant decision.” And so they all rejoiced together that they won’t become a government, as if poor Androulakis is saying otherwise or as if we’ve reached election night and Mitsotakis asked him to team up. Nice types indeed, they’re just probably telling Nikos, in their own way, that on that night he’d better not imagine anything other than quietly packing up and clearing out.

From Odysseus to Paris
-To see why this party can’t move forward: Androulakis announced yesterday that he will propose for the position of Vice President of Parliament, as successor to Odysseas Konstantinopoulos, Paris Koukoulopoulos. This is the same MP who a few months ago, last October, had taken the baton from Pavlos Geroulanos and was talking about a stuck needle in PASOK. In fact, he had firmly stated that he would raise the issue within PASOK’s bodies if there was no polling recovery by Christmas. “I myself, as Paris Koukoulopoulos, without implying anything about the president, will ask myself ‘what are we doing wrong’. Then I will raise the issue with everyone, starting with the president and the bodies. We need to speak more clearly.” Christmas passed, Carnival too, and somewhere along the line Koukoulopoulos seems to have asked himself, then the president, and decided that everything is fine. The only thing Paris has in common with Odysseus, in the end, is the mythological name…

Anna-Michelle trial
-I read that yesterday the trial began of Anna-Michelle Asimakopoulou, former ND MEP, and other officials over the leak of expatriates’ emails just before the 2024 European elections. So they are all accused because they gave names, addresses, emails of expatriates so that the candidate MEP could send them campaign material for the elections. What are you saying, guys, really, a huge offense, right? Our phones ring all day and our emails and mobiles are flooded with messages or calls from every company… on earth trying to sell us products and services. How many times a day does someone call you about telecoms, energy, this, that… Not to mention when elections come, from your local association or union to the party, it’s a full-blown party. Honestly, the absurdity of this country has no limit, right?

How Euroxx ended up in the deal with Optima
-The Optima–Euroxx deal surprised the market. Despite rumors circulating and it being known in the market that Optima’s management was looking around for deals that would bring new activities and revenues, almost no one expected developments between Optima and Euroxx, especially so quickly. Since these things aren’t discussed on Monday and announced on Tuesday, it’s obvious that there was a parallel negotiation that was kept “watertight” and led to yesterday’s deal announcements. At Piraeus Bank, just a few days ago they had held a call with Euroxx shareholders and were discussing the details of their agreement. In fact, Piraeus Bank had completed due diligence and had also reached a valuation of Euroxx, which it placed a bit above €70 million. It seems Piraeus Bank delayed because the deal with Euroxx needed approval from its US-based shareholder, the board, committees, etc. In Optima’s case things were simpler, as only the approval of Giannis Vardinogiannis was needed. And that’s how Piraeus Bank can rightfully say: Optima instead of us.

How the big three of Energy are positioning themselves on the Middle East crisis
-The strong interest of the energy elite and the shipping sector was reflected in yesterday’s energy discussion organized by Bloomberg in Athens, confirming that Energy now constitutes a common field of strategic convergence for two of the most powerful pillars of the Greek economy. The simultaneous presence of top energy executives and major names from shipping was not merely symbolic; it highlighted the deep interconnection of the two sectors in a period of intense geopolitical reshuffling and energy uncertainty. The participation of the heads of PPC, Giorgos Stassis, Helleniq Energy’s Andreas Siamisis, Motor Oil’s Petros Tzannetakis, and Elica of the Copelouzos group, Giannis Karydas, demonstrated the weight of developments for the domestic energy market, while the presence of personalities such as Angeliki Frangou, Haris Vafeias and Nikos Tsakos confirmed that the shipping world is closely monitoring—and is directly affected by—changes in energy flows. In an environment where maritime transport constitutes the main route for the movement of oil, LNG and energy products, the energy crisis and developments in the Middle East are inevitably at the center of shipping’s strategic choices. From the panel interventions it emerges that the Middle East crisis is mainly treated as a factor of uncertainty and risk for energy flows, but not—at least for now—as a crisis with the same immediate intensity that the war in Ukraine had for Europe.

Such crises are no longer the exception but the norm
-The participants stressed that this crisis affects more the physical flows and shipping, especially due to disruptions in key passages such as the Strait of Hormuz. This means longer transport times, increased costs and the need to readjust supply chains. For this reason, the shipping community appears particularly concerned and active, as it is directly impacted by developments. However, unlike the Ukraine crisis, it was noted yesterday that Europe and Greece are today in a better position. There is no longer the same dependence on a single energy source, with renewables leading the way, having strengthened companies’ resilience against successive crises. At the same time, greater diversification of suppliers and routes has been achieved in recent years, especially through LNG and alternative imports. This acts as a “cushion” against potential disruptions. It was also underlined that such crises are no longer an exception but a normality. The market has repeatedly gone through situations where major producing countries move in and out of the market, requiring constant adjustment. Therefore, the core strategy of companies is not to predict the next crisis, but to be ready to operate within it. The main conclusion of the interventions was that the Middle East crisis further strengthens the need for: energy diversification, investments in renewable sources, development of infrastructure and interconnections, and above all strengthening system resilience.

What was discussed about nuclear energy
-Particular weight was given to the discussion on nuclear energy, with Giorgos Stassis noting that Greece must first acquire the necessary culture and create the appropriate institutional framework, a process estimated to take several years. The observation that such an investment would take about a decade to pay off underlines the long-term nature of energy choices. In the same context, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis acknowledged that nuclear energy will likely form an integral part of the global effort to achieve net-zero emissions targets, leaving open the possibility of Greece’s future involvement, especially through technologies such as small modular reactors and interstate cooperation with countries that already have nuclear experience and operating units, such as Bulgaria and Romania.

Three Greeks took part in the Euronext Annual Conference
-A significant Greek presence was recorded at the 14th Euronext Annual Conference held yesterday in Paris, one of the most important European forums for capital markets, bringing together around 1,000 leading representatives of the economy, investors, entrepreneurs and institutional figures from across Europe. The aim of the event is to discuss the challenges of the European economy, strengthen capital market integration and highlight the role of stock exchanges in financing growth and innovation. A central role at the conference is naturally held by the CEO of Euronext, Stéphane Boujnah, who presented the strategic priorities of the pan-European exchange group. Among the speakers was Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who participated in the discussion on the importance of capital markets for economic growth and the prospects for strengthening the European investment market. At the same time, Dimitris Tsakonas, Director General of the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA), took part, representing Greece on issues related to public debt management and the relationship of states with international bond markets. Finally, Christian Hadjiminas, founder of EFA Group and CEO of THEON International, was also present, highlighting the growing role of Greek high-tech companies in international markets and the European investment ecosystem. Indicative of the scale and importance of the conference is the presence as keynote speakers of Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, i.e. the organization managing the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Verena Ross, Chair of ESMA, Andrea Sironi, Chairman of the insurance giant Generali and former rector of Bocconi University, Florent Menegaux, CEO of Michelin, among others.

Attica Group–Seajets: Parallel lives with opposite strategies
-In the Saronic, the Aegean and the Adriatic, the ferry map is being redrawn, with two players moving simultaneously but with completely different philosophies. On the one hand Attica Group with a strategy of streamlining and upgrading. On the other, Marios Iliopoulos, who is investing in expansion in the Aegean through Seajets, having bought five of Attica’s older vessels. The detail that makes the difference is that the two strategies… intersect. Attica sells and Iliopoulos buys. In other words, what Attica withdraws as “old model,” Iliopoulos turns into a tool for expansion. And thus emerges an almost “duopoly” in the market: Attica lowers the average age in the Saronic to under 6 years, investing in Aero catamarans with a lower footprint and higher quality of services; at the same time, Seajets acquires ready capacity and flexibility to further expand its network in the Aegean. In the Adriatic, the picture becomes more complex. Attica, with Superfast V and the two upcoming newbuilt E-Flexer vessels, “locks in” a high-demand market, drastically reducing fleet age and adapting to European environmental pressures. It is a move that concerns not only the market but also the next day of financing and regulation. By contrast, Iliopoulos does not seem, for now, to be chasing the Adriatic. He chooses to consolidate dominance in the Aegean, creating, as he says, new sea routes. Less emphasis on upgrades, more on commercial penetration. Attica is building the future of heavy, international and regulation-compliant ferry shipping. Iliopoulos is setting up a flexible, dense domestic network.