Hello, we had a nice and quiet weekend, with the best news being the weather forecast for Easter, which is almost here—the first indications speak of 17–20 degrees Celsius and sunshine without many strong winds. Now to the serious news of the war: unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a glimmer of hope for its end, although the markets are optimistic that it won’t last more than another month due to the deadlock primarily faced by Trump and the U.S. economy through the markets. If the impression takes hold (in the markets) that the “leader of the planet” is heading toward a long war, then pressures will intensify, stock indices will fall further, oil will stabilize above $120–140 per barrel, and a global recession will begin to look more than just visible. Therefore, experts and non-experts alike say that at some point the POTUS won’t be able to endure it and will pull back—as for how the war will end, I don’t think Trump has such concerns… the way he started it, he will end it. He does whatever he wants anyway from day one.

What about us?

In Athens, the developments of the war and the side effects have of course begun, as everywhere; there is strong concern mainly about the immediate impacts such as fuel prices and the pass-through of increases to the market—especially in food, which affects the general public, but also in construction costs. Tourism could also turn into a major headache, though not yet, since a slowdown in bookings is being observed, but there is still time. If the war had not happened, pre-bookings were pointing to a very strong year, which in Athens had already begun with February occupancy rates reaching an unprecedented 80% in large hotels. There are good chances that the tourism market will recover and that the classic pattern in such exceptional situations—last-minute booking—will play a big role.

New support measures via donations?

Even yesterday in his weekly post, Mitsotakis referred to the preparations being made by the economic team and himself, of course, in case new measures are needed to support the public against price increases, following the fuel pass, diesel measures, etc. I hear about an idea that has been floated for various large companies—such as banks, energy groups, betting companies, etc.—to contribute to the crisis through sponsorships. The key difference is that the government will not impose extraordinary tax levies, but the contributions will be framed as sponsorships for the crisis. I don’t have this confirmed as information, to be clear, but I am hearing it. Now you might ask, what if they don’t want to sponsor? Well, look, banks or some groups connected to the state would find it rather difficult to refuse.

Election scenario?

Meanwhile, between the wiretapping issue and the war, election speculation is rampant—it even made yesterday’s front page in Kathimerini—but K.M. continues to say publicly and privately that the scenario of elections now is not on the table… not even close, as it would be irresponsible, and between us, he must surely be thinking that whatever he gained from the “rally round the flag” effect of these days would be immediately lost. Now you might ask, if blackmail begins with documents, evidence, emails, or messages in the wiretapping case, what will he do? I cannot know, and in recent days there has also been radio silence in the scene regarding handling after an initial phase where everything that happened became known almost instantly. In my 40 years doing this job, I have never seen the Maximos office leak like such a sieve, my friend…

Pavlos’s “say one word” to leader Nikos and Aris Velouchiotis…

Otherwise, over the weekend we also had the PASOK conference, which was quite pleasant because, of course, these people remember something as old technicians of power, and they say what’s the point of fighting publicly like SYRIZA members did at their conference—we would be left with nothing. As the highlight of the conference, I declare the speech of Pavlos Geroulanos, who said that “our opponents fear that when the giant of PASOK awakens, nothing will save them,” and concluded addressing Nikos Androulakis by saying, “from you, president, we expect a signal, a word that is always heard before the attack, always before victory comes: ‘let’s go’—say it and we have begun.” I love Pavlos, that distinct urban humor of his! Over the weekend we also had Tsipras present in Lamia, where our leader abandoned the centrist line—which, it seems, isn’t helping him—and remembered Aris Velouchiotis.

Gerapetritis–Haftar

Benghazi, where G. Gerapetritis arrived for a brief visit, is a different city, as a lot of money has been invested in creating a governmental center next to the airport, with luxurious buildings to which Marshal Haftar and his sons have moved, each having taken on a part of power. At the meeting with General Haftar, a pleasant surprise awaited the Greek delegation, as sitting next to him was also his son, Saddam Haftar, who has been appointed army chief and, as everyone in Benghazi says, has received the “ring” of succession from his father. Athens has contacts with the other two sons, Belkassim and Khaled, both of whom have visited our country and there is good communication. Saddam had been a source of concern, as he is considered to have contributed to restoring Benghazi’s relations with Turkey. That is why the Greek minister, as well as the diplomatic mission, were pleased to hear the second most powerful man in Eastern Libya speak positively about the need for cooperation with Greece, expressing his desire to visit our country soon, likely hosted, due to his position, by Defense Minister N. Dendias.

Delimitation

In the meeting with Marshal Haftar, he did not raise the issue that had caused Libya’s reactions regarding the concession of the two plots south of Crete to Chevron (which overlap with the area of the Turkey–Libya memorandum). However, Haftar emphasized the importance of reaching a delimitation agreement with Greece, something our country has been trying to achieve for at least two decades. Eastern Libya, which informally controls the critical maritime areas, wants to participate in the talks that have begun between Libya and Greece. However, an institutional way must be found, since the officially recognized government is that of Tripoli. As political chaos continues to prevail in Libya, an effort will be made to “square the circle” by including in the working group established by Tripoli representatives from the competent parliamentary committee based in Benghazi. In any case, during G. Gerapetritis’s visit to Tripoli on April 1, the timetable for the next steps is expected to be set.

Talks about Austria Card

Market rumors suggest that Austria Card has been in a sale process for quite some time. The new development in this case is that a new interested party has reportedly emerged, currently reviewing the listed company and conducting due diligence. This means that discussions are still at a stage where nothing is certain.

Vertical Corridor: New terms and a crash test in July

Something seems to be changing, this time on more solid foundations, regarding the Vertical Corridor, following the agreement with the European Commission reached after marathon negotiations. Until recently, the route was not commercially viable. Tariffs for natural gas transportation were high and set in a fragmented manner from country to country, making the total transit cost uncompetitive compared to other European routes. At the same time, the available capacity booking products—i.e., the options traders have to reserve space in the transmission system—were almost exclusively monthly. In practice, this meant that anyone wishing to transport gas could only operate short-term, without the ability to “lock in” capacity for a longer period. Thus, it was almost impossible to support long-term commercial agreements or establish stable LNG flows, as no one could predict the cost and availability of the route over time. This was compounded by regulatory ambiguity, as the operating model was not fully aligned with the EU framework, creating additional uncertainty. The result was a mix of high costs, limited visibility, and increased risk—conditions that kept traders on the sidelines. This is exactly what the new agreement seeks to overturn. With a unified approach along the route, a significant reduction in tariffs (with costs falling to around €6/MWh), and, most importantly, the introduction of new longer-term products (quarterly and annual), the possibility for real planning and more stable agreements is being created for the first time. The first major test will come in July with the auction, where users will be asked to book capacity on a daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis for the new gas year starting at the end of October. That is when it will become clear whether the new framework can translate into real demand. Ultimately, everything will be decided in practice. If traders respond to the July auction with substantial commitments, the Vertical Corridor will enter a new phase. If not, it will remain a plan with improved terms but without a real impact on the market.

Tuition increases

Further revenue improvement, as a result of increased tuition fees, is expected for the current fiscal year by Doukas Schools, which have come under the umbrella of Cognita Schools following the 2024 deal. Specifically, for the current period (01.08.2025–31.08.2026), total revenues are estimated at €17.1 million and total expenses at €14.6 million, while EBITDA is estimated at €3 million and net profit after taxes at €2.4 million. For the previous fiscal year up to June 2025, results after taxes were loss-making, while turnover reached €15.62 million compared to €15.17 million (an increase of 3%), and gross profit stood at €5,217,870.43 compared to €4,693,404.43 (an increase of 11.2%). Earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation (excluding other results and impairments) amounted to €2.53 million, recording an increase of 27.9%, while pre-tax profit decreased by 82.6% to €205 thousand. The burden on the results of the closing year from income tax amounted to €505 thousand, and ultimately the result after taxes was a loss of €299 thousand compared to profits of €892 thousand. The increase in revenue is mainly due to higher tuition fees, while the increase in expenses mainly resulted from losses due to the write-off of doubtful receivables amounting to €2.1 million. “Operating expenses (the sum of cost of sales, administrative and distribution expenses, as well as financial expenses) remained almost unchanged (€13.5 million), as a result of the continuous process of monitoring and rationalizing them,” according to management. It is noted that there was also a transitional two-month period for July and August 2025, of limited usefulness, so that the new fiscal year would start at the beginning of August for business, financial, accounting, and auditing purposes, aligning with the parent company’s fiscal year. It is also recalled that the Cognita group has been present for over two decades, since the 2000s, with more than 100 different but connected schools across 17 countries.

The Athens Exchange’s invitation to Allwyn

A request for the admission to trading on the Main Market of the Athens Exchange of 445,684,184 new shares issued due to a capital increase was submitted by Allwyn. The increase took place in the context of the merger with OPAP and as consideration for the assets contributed and transferred, the liabilities assumed, etc. Within the week, trading of all shares will begin, marking the stock market debut of the new entity, and on this occasion the heads of Allwyn will most likely be at the balcony of the ATHEX building (soon to be Euronext Athens) on Thursday to ring the well-known bell and declare the start of the trading session.

United Group and the new subsidiary

Many scenarios have been heard about NOVA, but this does not mean that any move by the company is related to them. Thus, sources close to the company state that the recent establishment of United Group Greece, which was set up by “United Group Luxembourg S.à r.l.,” is not related to a possible sale. On the contrary, it is part of the group’s strategy to focus on EU markets where it operates and more specifically to further concentrate on the Greek market, which presents significant investment and growth opportunities. Indicative of the major upcoming changes is also the recent entry of Motor Oil and Alter Ego into the shareholding structure of the Antenna subscription TV platform, ANT1+. It should also be noted that United Group Greece, where Stan Miller—current CEO of United Group—has been appointed chairman and CEO, aims, among other things, to participate in the capital of other companies, carry out investments in businesses, startups, investment schemes, all kinds of assets, etc., as well as to develop data centers.

Bally’s Intralot: 20-day delay for results – No change in figures

It is not the first time that an initial consolidation of such magnitude delays the relevant publications. This is how Friday’s announcement regarding Bally’s Intralot is interpreted, with the 20-day postponement in publishing its financial results for 2025 attributed to the integration process with Bally’s at the group level—an exercise that, as those who have carried it out say, rarely stays on schedule in its first implementation, especially in a country (the U.S.) where the Securities and Exchange Commission consistently imposes high requirements that take time to meet. Beyond that, the results already disclosed through the flash note on March 17 remain unchanged. In fact, according to information, the outlook for 2026 is expected to be better, with sales recording an increase exceeding 10% in the first quarter. Very soon, according to the same sources, the relevant update will also take place.

National Bank withstood the sell-off and overtook Eurobank

The previous week turned into a “revenge” for the National Bank’s stock, which managed to decouple from the heavy climate prevailing in the sector. On Friday, the General Index fell by -1.74% and the other systemic banks came under strong pressure (with Eurobank at -3.32% and Alpha Bank at -3.08%), while National Bank was the only one that closed in positive territory (+0.95%) at €12.75. This move was not merely symbolic but also caused a significant shift in the balance of power. National Bank overtook Eurobank in market capitalization ranking, regaining the title of the most valuable bank on the Athens Exchange based on capitalization. National Bank’s valuation now stands at €11.66 billion, narrowly surpassing Eurobank at €11.62 billion, which “paid” a heavier price in the risk-off environment caused by instability in the Middle East. The ongoing share buyback program appears to act as a safety net during declining sessions. At the same time, the recent rebalancing of the Stoxx Large Cap, where National Bank was upgraded, continues to attract quality capital.

When risk rises, tankers often make history

On Wall Street, the past week had something of the aura of Greek shipping. Despite the widespread drop of major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, tanker stocks showed remarkable resilience. With an average increase of 5.9%, the tanker sector acted as a “safe harbor” amid the storm. Leading the way was Scorpio Tankers, which surged by +9.6%, confirming its strength in the product tanker space. Behind it, but flying the Greek flag high, Okeanis Eco Tankers recorded a 7.8% increase, reminding that Greek shipowners know how to “read” the markets even when the climate smells of crisis. Even during Friday’s drop, when investors rushed for the exits, most tanker stocks held firm, with losses below 1% for those that declined. And as New York analysts say, “when risk rises, tankers often make history.” In the rest of the shipping map, things were more restrained. Diana Shipping and Genco Shipping & Trading moved mildly upward amid scenarios of their merger, while Star Bulk Carriers maintained a wait-and-see stance. In containers, ZIM moved marginally higher, in contrast to Danaos Corporation, which declined slightly.

Pistiolis and Chinese financing within Wall Street

Evangelos Pistiolis’s move to place the latest MR tanker into a company already listed on Nasdaq is a strategy that resembles more… Wall Street than traditional Greek shipping. Instead of keeping the vessel “private” within the company, he is now incorporating it into a listed company. This means investors can see the ship’s contracts and revenues, and its value can be assessed higher than if it remained in a non-listed company. The deal was made with the help of Chinese financing, which covers nearly 85% of the vessel’s cost for the first 10 years, with fixed interest rates linked to the U.S. lending market (SOFR). This shows how significant a role China now plays in financing global shipping. The timing of the move is important. Rubico, the listed company acquiring the vessel, had low liquidity and declining profits. With the addition of new MR tankers and secured charter contracts for 7 years, the company gains predictable revenues of up to $679 million, which reassures investors about the future. Pistiolis’s strategy highlights three major trends: (a) ships that remain private gain value only when transferred to listed companies, (b) China is not only building ships but increasingly financing the global fleet, and (c) investors now view long-term contracts as a key indicator of value, especially in periods of geopolitical risk.

New company by the Sbokou family

A few days ago there was a certain “freeze” in the establishment of new companies, as reflected in the General Commercial Registry (G.E.MI.). Recently, however, the situation has returned to… normality, although the period we are living through, with wars and all that, hardly seems normal… In any case, dozens of large and smaller companies are now being established daily, most of which are “looking” toward the real estate market. Among the many founded last Friday, March 27, I singled out the one named Phaea Management S.A., headquartered in Heraklion, Crete, with the purpose of “hotel services and similar accommodation services.” This is yet another company of the Sbokou family’s interests. The initial share capital is €25,000, divided into 25,000 shares of €1 each. The main participants are Phaedra’s Home Holding, represented by Konstantia Sbokou (the wife of Achilleas Konstantakopoulos, Konstantza Sbokou-Konstantakopoulou, co-owner and president of the hotel group Phāea), which contributed a total of €11,980 (corresponding to 11,980 shares and a 47.92% stake), and Ariande’s Thread Holding, represented by Agapi Sbokou (co-owner and CEO of the Phāea hotel group), which also contributed €11,980 (47.92% stake). In addition, Eleni Sbokou, Minos Zombanakis, Eleni Zombanaki, and Ioannis Konstantakopoulos participate, each with 260 shares (1.04%). In the first Board of Directors of Phaea Management, Konstantza Sbokou serves as Chair, Agapi Sbokou as CEO, and members include the well-known businessmen Eftychis Vassilakis and Giorgos Vassilakis, Glykeria Tsernou, and Charalambos Foskolakis.

End credits for the COSMOTE brand

By the end of the year, the final curtain will fall on one of the most recognizable brands in the Greek market. The “COSMOTE” brand, which since 1998 has been part of the lives of millions of Greeks, along with the GERMANOS stores that supported it in retail, is handing over the baton to T-Mobile. The “T” of Deutsche Telekom ultimately wins the battle that had unofficially begun in 2023, when it was prominently placed on the façade of the OTE headquarters in Marousi. A year ago, in April 2025, COSMOTE announced the unification of its brand with TELEKOM, presenting the new corporate identity under the name COSMOTE TELEKOM. That was clearly the first intermediate step. Now, the second phase of the transition is being completed, and after the summer there will only be TELEKOM. OTE’s contribution to the TELEKOM Group’s financial performance is undeniable—it is the third strongest internationally, after the U.S. and Germany. A subsidiary of such weight could not remain indefinitely outside the parent company’s “unified brand universe.” The current value of the Deutsche Telekom brand is estimated at $85.3 billion, and this is a scale that requires uniformity, without exceptions.

553 companies and 172 laboratories in Greece declare involvement in defense

All banks in the country have created specialized departments for financing “defense initiatives.” All major business groups have established defense activity units. Perhaps the time has come for a cleanup. As one industry figure says—with a touch of exaggeration—“even souvlaki shops are talking about investments in defense.” In the registry of the Hellenic Center for Defense Innovation (ELKAK), a total of 725 entities have been registered so far, namely 553 companies and 172 laboratories. It is obvious that some organizations have registered without having anything substantial to offer, simply seeking funding. Cleaning up this registry is a first and necessary step in order to create a functional environment for cooperation, modeled on other European countries. According to information, significant announcements on this issue are expected very soon.

An “anti-social” market

Wall Street begins today another difficult shortened week, with major indices recording declines for a fifth consecutive week, sending a strong message of doubt to all investors who for months had been praising tech stocks. The Nasdaq fell by -2.1% on Friday alone, with weekly losses reaching 3.2%. It was its worst performance in nearly a year. With the exception of energy stocks, the market suffered from uncertainty, with concerns about Artificial Intelligence, upcoming regulatory interventions, supply chains, and inflationary pressures from higher oil prices creating a particularly adverse environment. The new and essentially different element of this period is the legal dimension that the strong reaction of markets (and society) against social media companies is taking. Court decisions in New Mexico and California have ignited fires that the sector has never faced before in this form. For the first time, plaintiffs did not invoke the famous Section 230 that protects platforms from liability for their content, but instead targeted directly the design of applications, algorithms, “infinite scroll,” in other words the tools that create addiction and which—according to the plaintiffs—cause psychological harm to users. Meta Platforms saw its shares fall by -11.4% in one week, wiping out $172 billion in market capitalization, precisely at a time when it had set the ambitious valuation target of reaching $9 trillion (within the framework of executive bonus compensation). Analysts warn that legal uncertainty will not be resolved soon and pressure on stocks may persist for years, as such issues take a long time to reach final court rulings.

The war hits the American consumer

Rising energy prices, collapsing stock valuations, and an atmosphere of uncertainty form a trio that is gradually eroding household confidence in the U.S. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 53.3 at the end of March, from 56.6 in February, undershooting even the conservative estimates of analysts who had forecast 54.2. Society is beginning to feel in its wallet the consequences of a conflict thousands of kilometers away. The first key indicator is gasoline prices. The national average per gallon of regular unleaded has surged to $3.98, from just $2.98 a month earlier—a 33% increase in just a few weeks. Wall Street reacted immediately. The “consumer discretionary” sector, meaning companies that sell non-essential goods and services, recorded a drop of more than -3% on Friday, as investors estimate that households will cut their spending.

Turkey is burning through its reserves

Those visiting Turkey these days will not have difficulty noticing that inflation is running at double-digit rates and the Turkish lira is steadily depreciating. The Central Bank is struggling to maintain balance and is therefore spending its gold reserves. It held reserves of 820 tons of gold just before 2026. Turkey lost 50 tons of gold in just one week, which was the largest weekly loss since August 2018, when the lira was in free fall. Total foreign exchange reserves have shrunk by $35 billion since the start of the conflict with Iran, reaching $177.5 billion. As if that were not enough, the roughly -10% drop in gold prices during the same week added an additional $8 billion in losses to the value of reserves. In total, $18 billion evaporated in seven days. This is not the first time. In the 2023 general elections, Turkey had exactly the same reaction—mass liquidation of gold reserves to stabilize the lira and control the situation before the vote. At that time, reserves collapsed from 838 tons to 652 within a few months. Recent history shows that, as in 2018 and 2023, at some point reserves run out before the pressure subsides. Markets always have the upper hand, regardless of who is beating the drum.