Europe’s economy is facing one of its biggest challenges in recent years, as the European Commission is preparing to issue a warning over hundreds of thousands of jobs that are at risk of being lost in the coming years due to high energy costs, industrial restructuring, and pressures created by the green transition.

The data, included in the Spring Package of the European Semester and seen by Politico, highlights growing concern in Brussels over Europe’s ability to maintain its competitiveness in an increasingly demanding global environment.

As Roxana Mînzatu, the Commission’s Executive Vice-President for Skills, told Politico: “European competitiveness will not be built only on technology, capital, or financial regulation. It will be built on people, on the skills they develop, and on the opportunities we provide them to contribute meaningfully to our economies and societies.”

Over half a million jobs at risk

With the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran continuing to affect global energy markets and keeping oil prices at high levels, the European Commission estimates that energy pressures in 2026 could put up to 560,000 jobs at risk.

The most exposed sectors are construction, metallurgy, the chemical industry, and transport—industries heavily dependent on energy costs.

At the same time, slowing economic activity has forced the Commission to revise its unemployment forecasts upward. While last autumn it expected unemployment to stand at 5.9% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027, it now projects 6% for both years.