Hello. It was more or less expected that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis would use his final Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) speech before the election to announce a huge package of benefits, the biggest yet, worth close to 2.2 billion euros. It makes sense that he would want to reach as many categories of voters as possible, especially where his own research and focus groups have shown he has lost ground and electoral support. That is probably why the most vote winning measure he announced was scrapping the presumptive tax assessment for self employed professionals. He left just one requirement in place: an annual declaration of minimum earnings of 12,000 euros, roughly the level of a basic salary. Enough is enough, as they say. Beyond that, he also looked after the rest of New Democracy’s (ND) electoral base: pensioners, civil servants and salaried workers, and to a lesser extent businesses, through a very slow reduction in advance tax payments. Worth noting is the original scheme unveiled by Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis, a savings account for newborns, which drew a lot of attention. Under it, parents and grandparents can deposit 1,000 euros for a child or grandchild, with the state adding another 1,000 euros, so the child has a decent sum by the time they come of age and enter working life.

Politics

At Sunday’s interview, Mitsotakis was, as always, composed, persuasive and articulate in his answers. Even if you cannot stomach him or would not vote for him, you cannot call him uninformed, unreliable or dishonest. That sense that “whatever I told you last year at the Fair has been delivered this year” is something he has built up with the public, even among his opponents. That, I think, is his main advantage over the other two he must face at the election. The comparison with former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, leader of the newly formed Hellenic Left Alliance (ELAS), who has not even started his campaign yet and is already talking nonsense about global taxation, does him no favours. The same goes for PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis: in 2026, he put his team on tractors for a face to face meal in a village, while Mitsotakis is announcing a 20,000 euro tax free threshold for farmers (incidentally, one wonders whether anyone will actually end up paying tax at all). I think, as far as I know, that Mitsotakis will corner Androulakis particularly hard towards the end, especially over a possible coalition after the first round. What argument will PASOK find not to join a coalition government when ND is polling at 28 to 30% and PASOK itself at 12 to 14%?

And one downside

So, all’s well then, and here’s to good health and plenty of kebabs next year too. But truth be told, the whole three day spectacle at the Fair reeked of old school patronage politics, carnival style showmanship, state fed excess and arrogance. And from the cliques you see gathering in Thessaloniki’s trendy bars and restaurants, it is clear that the governing party’s cronyism and backroom dealing, eight years on, has gone into overdrive. It has hit the red zone, as people say, and at every level, from the lower ranks right up to the top of the party, but above all inside government, among ministers and at Maximos, the Prime Minister’s office. It is all one big gang, one that squabbles from time to time and then makes up, all one big happy family. What can you do? There is plenty in the garden for everyone, now that we are heading into a third term.

Samaras

Like all civil wars within a political family, the one between Mitsotakis and former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is set to be painful. Mitsotakis told him yesterday that he has a talent for splitting the party, Samaras hit back by calling him the prime minister of high prices and scandals, and Mitsotakis threw down the gauntlet by recalling that under Samaras, ND won just 18% of the vote in 2012. Maximos is certainly not taking Samaras lightly. In recent days, government officials have been touring counties in northern Greece to take the temperature, and what they found was a mood turning against ND. There is grumbling in various places, there are complaints, and in Serres in particular an odd game is being played by figures loyal to the party’s old Karamanlis aligned wing. The same is true in Thessaloniki, where some ND cells have reportedly been shifting towards Samaras recently, or threatening to, out of discontent.

Mylonakis’s return

From today, Deputy Minister to the Prime Minister Yiorgos Mylonakis is formally back at Maximos, after several difficult months dealing with a serious health scare. Mylonakis attended the Fair and the Prime Minister’s speech, and appeared in good spirits at a number of events. His role this time will include special assignments as well as liaising with MPs and party officials. Get well soon.

The drone strike on Coca-Cola HBC, and the 1.04 billion euros stuck in Russia

We are approaching five years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the war remains an open wound for Coca-Cola HBC and the David-Leventis family. Kar-Tess Holding, the vehicle linked to the family, remains the group’s largest shareholder with 23%. The wound is open on both sides of the border. The latest episode came last Thursday, when a Russian drone struck HBC’s production plant in Brovary, near Kyiv, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to describe it as a strike on “American Coca-Cola” and a “clear Russian message to America.” “We can confirm that on 3 September our production facility in Brovary sustained damage during a drone attack. All our employees are safe and unharmed,” Coca-Cola HBC told newmoney. Over the weekend, HBC was assessing the damage and the state of the plant. It remains to be seen how far the disruption will affect production, and the listed company is expected to give an update in the coming period. The Ukrainian plant had already suffered extensive damage back in 2022 and needed repairs before it could resume operations. Fresh disruptions to its operations in 2026 cost the company around 15 million euros in the first half of the year. As recently as 5 August, management had told analysts the situation had settled down and operations had been fully restored. Twenty-nine days later, Brovary was hit again. In Russia, the wound is of a different kind. HBC had invested there for decades and built one of its most important markets. After the invasion, the withdrawal of Coca-Cola’s international brands forced it to switch to a different model, using local brands and local management. The Russian business continues to generate cash, but restrictions on repatriating capital mean a significant share of that liquidity stays trapped in the country: by the end of the first half of the year, cash and cash equivalents held in Russia had reached 1.04 billion euros. And yet, over these four years, HBC has not only weathered the shock but has hit record highs, from sales of 9.2 billion euros and comparable operating profit of 929.7 million euros in 2022, to 11.6 billion euros and 1.36 billion euros respectively in 2025. It is now opening its next major chapter in Africa, with the 2.6 billion dollar deal to acquire CCBA. The war reshaped the map the David-Leventis family had spent decades building. It did not, however, manage to halt Coca-Cola HBC’s growth.

Athens Exchange: upgrade, derivatives expiry, and buckle up

18 September is shaping up to be an especially lively trading day for the Athens Exchange (ATHEX). Alongside the milestone shift to developed market status under FTSE and Stoxx, the same day will bring the related rebalancing of shares tracking the FTSE Russell and Stoxx 600 indices. The September derivatives series also expires that day, covering both index and stock contracts. Open interest at the end of last week stood at 2.15 million contracts, a record level. The all time trading record on the Athens Exchange remains 3.03 billion euros, set on 15 May 2008, when blocks of shares in OTE, the Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation, passed into the control of Deutsche Telekom (DT).

Parcels from China down 53%: the impact on Jumbo

The introduction of a 3 euro charge on small parcels arriving from China has cut their volume by 53% in the first two months since the measure took effect. This is a development likely to have a particularly strong impact on Jumbo’s performance, since Chinese online platforms are the retailer’s toughest competitor. The timing is ideal, given that the second half of the year is the strongest for sales. September will be a key test, since back to school items push that category’s share up to 9 to 10% of the group’s consolidated turnover.

Not a word on the Athens airport expansion tender

While the construction industry had expected some official news at Saturday’s National Development Fund event at the Fair about the “hot” tender to expand Athens airport, the airport’s chief executive George Kallimasias chose to keep his cards close to his chest, referring in the end only to projects already under way at Spata rather than to what is coming next. Rumours over the tender, worth more than 1 billion euros and covering a major expansion of the main terminal and the satellite terminal so the airport can initially handle 40 million passengers, have been swirling for weeks. The most contentious point, with pressure coming from several directions including contractors themselves, is whether to expand the project’s scope right now to 50 million passengers, given that passenger growth has arrived earlier than expected. That pressure was reportedly borne out this summer, with overcrowding and delays at the airport, at the same time as reports of a letter from the Civil Protection Authority also raising the issue of whether the project should be scaled up. The tender is being run under the Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) method, bringing bidders in early so costs, specifications and other details can be better planned from the outset. Binding bids were originally due in July, but the deadline was pushed back to mid September. The market sees this week as crucial, expecting news to emerge around the publication of the airport operator’s half year financial report on 9 September, alongside an update on the first half of 2026. The road ahead is reportedly not straightforward when it comes to the decisions still to be taken. Some in the construction industry are even talking about scrapping the existing process altogether, since any rescaling and redesign carries the risk of significant delays as well as greater funding needs, all against a backdrop of rising passenger numbers.

More than 35 million passengers

Still, at Saturday’s event, the airport’s chief executive did admit that the airport has moved up a league. “This year we will handle more than 35 million passengers, and tourism is the main driver of that traffic. We have grown 33% since the pandemic, compared with an average of plus 5.5% across other European airports over the same period. Athens International Airport (AIA) is now the second best connected airport in Europe in the 25 to 40 million passenger category. Over the years we have made a number of investments, such as extra departure gates for the terminals and additional check in desks, while during the pandemic years around 50 million euros was invested in baggage handling areas. We are now at the stage where, since last year, we have launched two major projects: a new car park and parking stands for 32 aircraft, both due for completion during 2027, while the VIP terminal is also under way. So we have a substantial investment plan that will clearly upgrade the passenger experience significantly, with funding for most of it already largely secured.”

Star Bulk: the maths behind 25.50 euros

Behind the symbolism of Star Bulk’s “return” to Athens lies a cold piece of prospectus arithmetic. The maximum offer price has been set at 25.50 euros. With the stock closing on Nasdaq at $31.86 on 2 September and the exchange rate at around 1.158, that 25.50 euros translates to roughly $29.5. In other words, the ceiling of the Greek offer already prices in a discount of around 7% to the New York listing. The final price will be announced on 11 September, with SBLK’s trading on Wall Street acting as a live “guide” throughout the three days of the bookbuilding. Dilution from the offering is small, just 4.4 million new shares out of a total of around 111.7 million, or under 4%. The book already has one declared “buyer,” after the Pappas family told the board of its intention to take part through its own companies. The stock has gained 70.7% over 12 months. In the second quarter of this year, earnings per share of $1.21 beat estimates of $0.95 by 27%, and the quarterly dividend of $0.47 gives a yield of close to 6%. The underwriting syndicate includes major names such as lead manager AXIA/Alpha, coordinator National Bank of Greece, CrediaBank, Optima, Ambrosia and Pantelakis. Of Greece’s four systemic banks, the two not involved will be watching the outcome especially closely. Because the real stake here is not the 112.2 million euros Star Bulk could raise in a single afternoon in New York. What is really at stake is proof that the Greek capital market can properly price the shipping sector. That is why, on Wall Street, Petros Pappas’s move with Star Bulk is not being read as a sentimental “homecoming.” And that may be exactly what other Greek shipowners with companies listed in New York will be watching closely too, not because they have suddenly discovered the Athens Exchange, but because, if it turns out there is real investment depth and capacity to raise serious sums, then Athens gains a usefulness for big shipping that it has not had until now. That is why the outcome of the bookbuilding is worth watching. Pappas’s 112 million euros could end up mattering more for the Athens Exchange than the Star Bulk listing itself. If the bet pays off, shipping offices will start doing their sums. If all goes to plan, SBLK is expected to begin trading on Wednesday 16 September, when Stavros Kapralos, as chairman of the shipping company’s board, and Petros Pappas, as chief executive, will ring the traditional bell on the Athens Exchange trading floor.

The Tatoiou neoclassical building heads to the stock exchange

While we are on the subject of new listings, note that this morning, at 110 Athinon Avenue, Verallis filed its application for a capital increase and the listing of its shares on Euronext Athens’s ENA Growth market. Verallis, based in an impressive neoclassical building on Tatoiou Avenue in Kifisia, is starting its stock market journey modestly and without fanfare. It will raise just 800,000 euros (a process that has probably already been completed with the help of Theodoros Krintas’s Koubaras Ltd), on turnover that currently looks unlikely to exceed 2 million euros. Verallis operates a success fee only model: it advises large companies on how to cut operating costs, mainly but not only energy, and is paid solely if the savings target is met. No savings, no fee. Alongside its application, the company will present a growth plan to expand its turnover. Assuming the relevant committees and the Athens Exchange board give their approval, the new shares are expected to begin trading on ENA by 15 September at the latest.

Changes in Piraeus Bank’s shareholder register

According to the latest data on Piraeus Bank’s shareholder register, funds managed by Paulson & Co. now control more than 14.2% of the bank, up from 13.62% a year earlier, meaning the bank’s main shareholder has quietly increased its stake. In the same register, Vanguard is approaching the 5% disclosure threshold, currently at 4.8%, while BlackRock’s holding has also strengthened to above 3%. Piraeus Bank shares have gained 54.7% over the past twelve months, and in August the bank returned 0.40 euros per share to shareholders.

The 2.5% “golden balance point”

Reports increasingly agree that on Thursday 10 September, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council will raise the deposit rate to 2.5%. That level is seen as monetary policy’s “golden balance point”: low enough not to choke off credit expansion or become prohibitive for borrowers, yet high enough to guarantee higher income for banks, whose loan books remain largely tied to floating rates. According to UBS estimates, every 25 basis point increase adds around 135 million euros a year to the combined income of the four systemic banking groups, and 2026 will already have seen two such moves. The market, however, was not waiting for Thursday. In the Athens Exchange’s current market capitalisation ranking, banks hold four of the top six places: Eurobank at 17.05 billion euros (second), National Bank of Greece at 16.05 billion euros (third), Piraeus Bank at 13.1 billion euros (fifth) and Alpha Bank at 10.59 billion euros (sixth). Together, the four systemic banks add up to 56.8 billion euros. Add in Bank of Cyprus (4.58 billion euros), Optima (2.63 billion euros) and CrediaBank (1.97 billion euros), and the listed banking sector as a whole is worth close to 66 billion euros, a figure that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The only real question for Thursday is the wording of the announcement. Most analysts expect a rate rise paired with a signal to pause, with 2.5% emerging as a “parking” level for several quarters. That helps explain the market’s calm in the face of a rate increase. When everyone is making money at 2.5%, nobody is in a hurry to move away from it.

Patras: after the photographs, what next?

The arrival of the cruise ship VidantaWorld’s Elegant in Patras brought photographs, statements, smiles and, once again, the long running debate about cruise tourism. But the ship has now left, and that is when the hard part begins. The real test was never whether a luxury cruise ship could dock at the port. It is what happens once the passengers disembark: where they go, what they see, how easily they can get around and, above all, how much money they leave in the local economy. Plans and announcements about the city’s relationship with the sea have existed in Patras for years. What is still missing is a shared approach between the port, the municipality, the region, local businesses and tourism professionals. Because cruise companies are not simply buying a berth on the quayside, they are buying a destination. That is where it gets interesting. The Patradise Mega Yacht Marina, the cruise infrastructure being planned, and the development of the North Harbour all suggest that something is starting to move. The question is whether, this time, the plans will actually gain momentum, speed and a concrete economic payoff. The Elegant did not come to Patras to solve its problems. Without meaning to, it simply shone a light on them. Success will not be another cruise ship arriving and the cameras lining up on the quayside once again. Success will be so many ships coming that, at some point, their arrival is not even news anymore.

Old alliances with Greek shipowners are being rekindled

Anyone listening closely to Maritime Affairs and Island Policy Minister Vasilis Kikilias at the Fair’s Japanese pavilion would have realised the conversation went well beyond Greek-Japanese pleasantries. Behind the talk of ship orders and technical know how lies a relationship spanning decades, one that Athens and Tokyo now want to push back up the agenda. Greek shipowners were traditionally among the best customers of Japanese shipyards, but today a noticeable share of new orders has shifted towards China and South Korea. So the Japanese have every reason to rekindle old alliances, and the Greeks every reason to keep a strong third shipbuilding option open. The more interesting part, though, was elsewhere. Kikilias brought the International Maritime Organization (IMO), new marine fuels and “punitive policies” into the same conversation, and given the difficult negotiations in London in recent days, that is unlikely to be a coincidence. In plain terms, Greece and Japan are not just talking about ships. They are also seeking common ground on the rules governing how those ships will operate and pay for the green transition. That may well be the real story behind the meeting in Thessaloniki.

Who is chasing shipyard slots in Asia

I hear there has been quite a bit of activity on the phones between Piraeus, China and South Korea recently, and not just around deals that have already been made public. Word in the market is that a number of Greek names are once again looking seriously at shipyards, though that does not mean all of them will end up signing. Vasilis Bakolitsas’s Sea Pioneer has been linked to a large Aframax programme at SK Oceanplant, while Anna Angelicoussis’s Alpha Bulkers is reportedly considering a further expansion of its order book at Hengli. Those are the known names. What is more interesting is the rest. Shipbroking sources say discussions are under way over available slots for 2028 and 2029, with several Greek owners wanting at least to know what is on the table. In shipping, as we know, there is a long way between asking the price and signing a letter of intent, but that is often how the big orders start. There is one detail, though, that matters. Greek owners are not just looking at price. They are looking at which yard can genuinely deliver on time, what engines are on offer, and how flexible a ship can be in the face of the environmental requirements still to come.

German sugar taxes

Special taxes on fuel, on carbon emissions, on gambling, and now on sugar too. Germany’s government is moving ahead with a tax on high sugar soft drinks from 2027. The agreement between the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) is part of a bill to stabilise contributions to statutory health insurance, and is partly modelled on the British system. Under the proposal, drinks with less than 5 grams of sugar per 100ml would not be taxed. Those with between 5 and just under 8 grams would face a tax of 0.26 euros per litre, and those with 8 grams or more would face 0.32 euros per litre. The rates would be adjusted annually for inflation. Natural juices and drinks sweetened solely with artificial sweeteners would be exempt. The tax would be levied on producers rather than retailers, to encourage reformulation of recipes and lower sugar content. A transition period of roughly one year is planned. Annual revenue is estimated at around 450 million euros in the early years, and would go towards statutory health insurance. The government has ruled out extending the tax to light and zero sugar drinks, despite an internal draft from the Finance Ministry proposing exactly that, which triggered a backlash.

Diesel is making history

In the United States, the average diesel price climbed to a new record last Friday, reaching $5.85 a gallon and overtaking the previous high set in June 2022, at the time of the first shock from the invasion of Ukraine. To us Greeks, that price looks almost cheap, since one gallon equals 3.785 litres, meaning $5.85 a gallon works out at roughly $1.55 a litre, or around 1.32 euros a litre at the current exchange rate. For Americans, though, it is a real problem. Unleaded petrol now stands at $4.15, up from $3.20 a year ago, a rise of 30% in twelve months. Diesel rose by 24 cents in a single week and by 48 cents over the past month. On international markets, Brent crude is trading near $95 a barrel, up 8% on the week, after the United States launched fresh strikes against Iran and Tehran retaliated by targeting American bases and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The 60 day ceasefire ended in mid August, and the market has once again started pricing in a risk premium, climbing from $69 on 2 July to $105 on 23 July, having earlier touched $140 back in March. In Greece the knock on effect is already measurable. The average nationwide price of unleaded petrol has just passed 2 euros a litre, as has diesel. The subsidy of 10 cents a litre on diesel has been extended until 30 September, with the fiscal cost since April reaching 211 million euros. Diesel is what moves lorries, ships, tractors and supply chains, in other words, it is what drives winter inflation. In 2022, the record was set by a war in Europe. In 2026, it is being rewritten by a narrow 39 kilometre strait.