New pressure is building in the European oil market following the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s strategically important East-West pipeline, with Saudi Aramco canceling or delaying crude oil deliveries to European refineries.
According to market sources cited by oilprice.com, at least three European refineries have already been informed that cargoes scheduled for late September will either be canceled or postponed until as late as November. Two additional refineries are awaiting similar notifications regarding their September supplies.
The East-West pipeline, with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, has remained out of operation since the September 10 attack. It is one of Saudi Arabia’s key energy arteries, transporting oil from fields in the country’s east to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
A market source told Argus that all Saudi cargoes scheduled for the final 10 days of September could be at risk of cancellation or delay. The same source estimated that crude oil stocks at Yanbu would be sufficient for approximately five days, although Argus has not independently confirmed the estimate.
Aramco did not comment on the reports.
The development contrasts with the situation just a few weeks earlier. In August, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Aramco would deliver the full contractual volumes of crude to at least three European refineries for September as scheduled.
However, according to Vortexa data cited by Argus, no Saudi crude cargo has departed from Yanbu since September 11.
At the same time, Saudi exports from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal averaged 1.95 million barrels per day during the first two weeks of September, while arrivals at Ain Sokhna stood at around 1.40 million barrels per day.
Crude exported through Yanbu can be transported to Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and then, via the SUMED pipeline, which has a capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day, reach Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.
Europe Looks for Alternatives
The first effects are already becoming visible in the European market.
Poland’s Orlen has begun purchasing alternative cargoes to meet its needs. According to traders who spoke to Reuters, the company has sourced North Sea crude grades including Grane, Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg, while also requesting offers for U.S. WTI Midland and Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend.
At the same time, at least four scheduled tanker shipments from Sidi Kerir to Gdansk in September did not take place.
Aramco supplies approximately 40% of the crude processed by Orlen, which operates refineries in Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. The Polish company said its facilities continue to receive feedstock normally.
The shutdown of the East-West pipeline, however, is becoming increasingly significant, as the route had developed into one of Saudi Arabia’s main alternatives for bypassing restrictions on exports through the Persian Gulf.
A problem that until just days ago was largely confined to Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure is now beginning to affect European customers, with canceled cargoes, delays and an increasing search for alternative supplies.
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