Hello, now you’re going to tell me: the world is falling apart, and you want to tell us about Rubio in a gossip column. Quite right, so here’s a quick analysis, a brief. On the subject of what’s happening in the Vissi–Karvelas match, look, Koustas entering the Vissi brand is something like Rupert Murdoch buying Proto Thema… or, shall I say, Mohammed bin Salman. So, as you understand, behind Karvelas’s jasmine pot, for Anna to get the key, she’s going to have to put up a few extra bucks, since Koustas’s 100 ships have now entered the equation too. I think that in the end the power of cash will prevail, as my friend Dimitris says. Now, on the other issue of the day, the meeting at the Maximos Mansion about Karaiskakis: well, okay, we said it, Panathinaikos got a stadium, PAOK wants one too, so why shouldn’t Olympiacos get an expansion as well? After all, AEK got one under SYRIZA too. And at the end of the day… let’s not drag this out, we also have elections.

Rubio in Athens

The person of the day is, of course, Rubio, who arrived in Athens last night and has taken up residence, together with the American delegation, in a hotel in the heart of Athens. The meetings under the “Strategic Dialogue” will take place there today, on the one hand with deputy ministers and State Department officials and, on the other, with the two Deputy Foreign Ministers, Alexandra Papadopoulou and Harris Theoharis, and officials from various ministries. I understand, of course, that in the afternoon Mendoni and Dendias will go to the hotel for the signing of an agreement with the United States. Rubio, meanwhile, starts his program at around 09:00 at the Foreign Ministry, where he will meet Gerapetritis; they will make statements, after which Rubio will withdraw to his hotel. He has asked for some time to rest, but he may also have some private meetings arranged by the Embassy before going to the Pnyx in the afternoon to speak. Obviously, there was also a discussion between the State Department staff and the Embassy here and, after the formal approval from the Central Archaeological Council (KAS) was given, the best available lighting was selected, so that Mr. Rubio can have an important photograph that he will also use in his personal presidential bid for the Republican nomination in 2028.

Dinner at Tudor Hall

Staying with Rubio, I should tell you that there is a great deal of activity at the King George hotel, because after his meeting with Mitsotakis at the Maximos Mansion, Rubio will have dinner at Tudor Hall. The menu is still being worked out, but it will be overseen by the Head Chef of the hotel and of the Grande Bretagne, Asterios Koustoudis, who specializes in assignments like these. Mitsotakis will obviously be at the dinner, along with Gerapetritis and his Foreign Ministry team that handled the Strategic Dialogue, as well as Rubio’s entourage, together with Kimberly Guilfoyle, the embassy’s number two, Joshua Huck, etc. There will also be quite a few ministers, such as Dendias, Papastergiou, Theodorikakos, Kikilias, and others. Before he departs for Portugal and given the good weather, let’s also give the head of American diplomacy a dinner with a magnificent view.

The Commission does not “budge” on energy

For the government, however, the news from the Commission is rather negative regarding the room for flexibility for additional measures to support consumers using surplus VAT revenues. Despite letters from Mitsotakis and Meloni calling for flexibility regarding fiscal space, von der Leyen was once again negative yesterday, speaking to the European Parliament, making it clear that the Commission does not agree to across-the-board subsidies when it comes to energy. I don’t know whether this can change at the European Council in mid-October; there are strong objections from many countries that either do not want subsidies or already have a large deficit anyway. In any case, von der Leyen will also be at today’s MED9 Euro-Mediterranean Summit in Split, Croatia, so perhaps Mitsotakis and Meloni will have a word with her.

Katerina Panagopoulou’s little house

Because love, a cough, and money cannot be hidden, I’m told that shipowner Diamantis Diamantidis bought the widow Panagopoulou’s mansion in Kavouri for €125 million. A bargain, right? You know, this is the house that had some unauthorized structures built on the seashore or the beach—I don’t remember exactly now—and they were legalized by the SYRIZA-led government shortly before it fell. Of course, Ms. Katerina Panagopoulou was also an adviser to Alexis Tsipras at the time (“I’ve also got a yacht…”), and therefore the legalization doesn’t count. Anyway, enjoy the little house.

The backstage story at ERT

In media circles, discussion has begun about the departure of the company’s CEO, Konstantinos Papavasileiou, who is heading to Wide Media Group, where he will have a similar position and twice the money compared with the more limited pay at Public Television. The divorce is not exactly an amicable one, as there were frictions, especially with chairman Yiannis Papadopoulos, with quite a few incidents over the past several months. In any case, because there are plenty of rumors circulating, the position will be filled internally, by someone from ERT—that is, not from the market—while the relevant job posting will be issued immediately. People in the know were telling me, however, that there is generally a peaceful atmosphere at ERT, also against the backdrop of the numerous interventions made by the responsible minister, Pavlos Marinakis, while ERTNEWS is also “building” a good image externally.

The Mitsotakis–Meimarakis meeting

There was a lot of talk in recent days about Meimarakis’s absence from New Democracy’s anniversary celebrations, although his absence was fully justified because he was in Strasbourg. I am learning, however, that on Friday morning he will go to the Maximos Mansion to meet the Prime Minister, a sign that their relationship is not the same as the one with Samaras and Karamanlis.

Chatzidakis’s gathering

Vice President Chatzidakis is building his profile both inside and outside the party, and that is clear. Following his European contacts, the time has come for his internal party contacts, which are useful for New Democracy as election day approaches. So the vice president, as a former president of ONNED and secretary of DAP, is inviting former ONNED members. Thus, on the occasion of ONNED’s 52nd anniversary, he is organizing a major event on Friday, October 18, at 19:30, at Glasshouse in Goudi. I’m told that this event will only be the first in a series of moves Kostis Chatzidakis will make to “warm up” former party officials, ease discontent, and rally them ahead of the crucial electoral contest that is coming.

Black List with 15,000 illegal gambling websites!

The figures presented by the Hellenic Gaming Commission during yesterday’s meeting with Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis are revealing: the list of unlicensed websites has reached 15,000, demonstrating the scale of illegal gambling in our country, which last year is estimated to have generated €1.8 billion in turnover. It is a Hydra-headed monster, because after one address is blocked, illegal operators can reappear under new domains and through different online routes. Following the passage of Pierrakakis’s law strengthening the powers of the Hellenic Gaming Commission (EEEP) and the framework governing games of chance, the Commission acquired new digital tools for the faster identification of unlicensed gambling websites. The Commission is already making use of artificial intelligence and AI-agent technologies, with the aim of automating a significant part of the process of searching for and identifying suspicious websites. The EEEP’s new platform automates most of the process, from searching for suspicious sites to gathering evidence and preparing it for inclusion on the Black List. The system collects URLs from complaints, existing lists, as well as automated online searches, and then “scans” the websites, saving images, videos, and copies of their content. AI assesses and scores the risk of each case, followed by an automatic cross-check against the EEEP’s Licensing Registry to establish whether the operator is legally authorized to operate in Greece. In a trial that was presented, out of 3,283 websites, 2,282 proceeded to the analysis stage and 1,001 were identified as illegal, while for 734 URLs the system gave a high-confidence indication for the Black List. Doubtful cases are subjected to human review before the blocking process is initiated. The goal is for AI to replace approximately 75% of the EEEP staff’s manual work and to increase the speed of processing cases by at least two to three times.

Panathinaikos’s sleeve and the insurance companies

It is no secret that, for Panathinaikos’s die-hard fans, the word “Piraeus” on the left sleeve of the green jersey was always an uneasy cohabitation. Since the beginning of this season, the spot had been left vacant. Yesterday, the club announced who is taking its place. It is Allianz Insurance, which was named Official Insurance Partner, already a sponsor of Bayern and Juventus. The fee was not announced, but information from Panathinaikos says it is higher than what the bank was paying. Piraeus remains among the club’s partners, just not on the jersey. Piraeus is no longer just a bank: since November 2025, it has owned 100% of National Insurance, for which it paid €600 million. Allianz Insurance, on the other hand, according to market information, is preparing to welcome National Bank as a 30% shareholder, together with an exclusive bancassurance agreement from 2027. In other words, on the sleeve of Panathinaikos’s jersey, the bank that acquired National Bank’s insurance company is being replaced by the insurance company into which National Bank is entering. Allianz has every reason to seek greater visibility in Greece, since its subsidiary closed 2025 with €444.5 million in gross written premiums, but with net losses of €2.2 million, compared with profits of €13.4 million in 2024. The losses are attributed to increased restructuring expenses. The parent group, by contrast, recorded record operating profits of €9.4 billion in the first half of 2026. There is also an interesting innovation. An QR code will be incorporated into the Allianz logo, for the first time on a Greek football jersey. With a single scan, the sleeve turns into a service counter.

S&P 500: 10 companies account for 40% of market capitalization and 37% of profits

The concentration of the S&P 500 among the largest listed companies has reached unprecedented levels for the past four decades. According to data from Compustat, IBES, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, the 10 largest companies in the index now account for approximately 40% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, compared with figures close to 20% in the early 1980s and just 17–18% in the mid-2010s. The concentration is not limited to valuations, however. The same ten companies are estimated to generate approximately 37% of the S&P 500’s total profits, a figure that has nearly doubled from the 18–20% levels of a decade ago. It is noteworthy that around 2000, at the height of the technology bubble, the ten largest companies represented approximately 25–26% of market capitalization, but only 13–15% of profits. Today’s picture is therefore different, as the high concentration of valuations is accompanied by an equally strong concentration of profitability. Nevertheless, the 40% share of market capitalization versus 37% of profits suggests that the leading companies are still trading at some premium. At the same time, an increasing concentration risk is emerging, as the performance of the S&P 500 as a whole depends more than ever on the performance of an extremely limited number of companies.

AVAX: It needs €700 million in capital and wants to return to energy

AVAX Group management upgraded its guidance for 2030 EBITDA at the Euronext conference in Paris. The new guidance is now set at €230 million, versus €150 million previously. The change comes from: 1) €30 million from construction (€120 million versus a previous forecast of €90 million), as a result of faster replenishment of the project pipeline and, on the other hand, a larger potential market for new projects stemming from major investment programs by private companies. 2) €20 million from concessions (€55 million, versus €35 million previously, of which €20 million relates to a contribution from the existing concessions portfolio), with the aim of securing a share of the ongoing PPP tenders. 3) €30 million from energy, where the group is considering re-entering the sector by acquiring portfolios of operational photovoltaic plants of approximately 250 MW and developing storage systems of approximately 200 MW over the next 1–2 years. Management said that the above investment program will require approximately €700 million in new capital, with the largest portion (approximately €570 million) to come from non-recourse financing, while the leverage ratio (net debt / EBITDA) will nevertheless not exceed 3x throughout the period up to 2030, supplemented by expected operating cash flows from the existing construction and concessions businesses.

Strong rebound from the banks after the sell-off

Bank stocks led the recovery of the Athens Stock Exchange, with the sector index rising 3.8%, its best session since July 21, when it had gained 4.3%. The reaction allowed the banking index to “claw back” part of the 6.3% losses it had accumulated during the first two days of October. The four systemic banks gained between 3.8% and 4.3%, accounting for almost 48% of trading activity, with turnover of more than €150 million against total transactions of just over €310 million. The dynamic rebound in the shares came after positive reports on the sector. UBS maintains a Buy rating on all four systemic banks and raised its price targets, seeing support from higher interest rates and credit expansion. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley describes the recent correction as a buying opportunity, maintaining an Overweight rating on Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank and Eurobank, and singling out Alpha Bank as one of its top European mid-cap picks.

Cenergy (finally) above the placement price

Cenergy stood out among the blue chips, rising 2.5% and closing at €24.70, its highest level in more than three months. Although it started sluggishly, trading around €24, it subsequently picked up speed and—most importantly—returned above the price of last June’s placement (€24.20). The stock is now eyeing €26.20, where it recorded its all-time high last June. Trading activity was noteworthy, with turnover of €4.85 million and volume of approximately 200,000 shares. With the latest close, Cenergy’s market capitalization stands at €5.24 billion.

Titan: Rebound after the four-day decline, with S&P as catalyst

Titan returned to positive territory after four consecutive declining sessions, with the stock gaining 1.5% to €47.42. The catalyst was the upgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “BBB-” from “BB+”, with a stable outlook, giving the company investment-grade status. The rating agency highlighted the group’s strong operating performance, resilient cash-flow generation, prudent financial policy, and strong balance sheet. The development also broadens Titan’s access to the capital markets and could contribute to a lower cost of financing. On the stock market, however, the share remains some distance from the psychological €50 threshold and even further from its all-time high of €59, recorded at the end of last January.

The…other Kocs

The well-known Koç family, which owns Koç Holding, Turkey’s largest private and industrial business conglomerate, has had a presence in Greece for years through various investments, such as Avis, the Mytilene marina, real-estate ventures, etc. Yesterday, however, a company was incorporated under the name “Koc Construction P.C.”, based in Vari, with Omer Koc as its head and principal shareholder. This is not Omer Koc, the son of billionaire Rahmi Koç and current Chairman of Koç Holding, but another Omer Koc, the son of Tahir Koc. It should of course be noted that the name Koc is fairly common in Turkey. In any case, the purpose of this new company is the construction of residential and non-residential buildings, the provision of business consulting services, the buying and selling, leasing and management of real estate, etc. The initial share capital amounts to €650,000, corresponding to 650,000 capital-contribution units paid in by Omer Koc, while there are also 162,500 non-capital contribution units. These concern Mustafa Koc, son of Tahir, who will provide the company with management services and research relating to the selection of construction materials and monitoring of the progress of construction works for a period of two years. This contribution was valued at the… lion’s share (90%) of the 162,500 non-capital contribution units. A 5% share of these concerns Ahmet Temugan, who will provide the company, for a period of three years, with research to identify and purchase a suitable plot of land for its business plan, monitoring of the project through completion, and identification of prospective buyers. The remaining 5% of the non-capital contributions concerns Georgios Michalakis, who will provide the same services, also for a period of three years. Thus, Omer Koc controls 80%, Mustafa Koc 18%, and Ahmet Temugan and Georgios Michalakis 1% each, with the latter three also taking on the management of the company.

The Ministry of Environment and Energy…got off the hook

Last July, newmoney revealed an extremely rare, if not unique, auction. This was because it concerned not just any property, but a…ministry. Specifically, the well-known building on Mesogeion Avenue that has housed the Ministry of Environment and Energy for many years. It was clarified, however, that the property at 119 Mesogeion Avenue belongs to a private company and is leased by the state to house the central services of the Ministry of Environment and Energy. It was also noted that, as with every auction, there was an open possibility that the auction could be suspended before the scheduled date if an objection or other legal action intervened in the meantime. The hammer was scheduled to fall on October 15, with a starting bid of €29 million, which made the particular property the most expensive on the electronic auction platform. According to the description, it is a plot of land that is legally buildable and meets the requirements for construction, located in the area known as… “Diavolorevma” or “Batzades,” covering 2,628.77 sq. m., on which a seven-story building with a total surface area of 16,792.49 sq. m. was constructed between 2000 and 2002 by GEK TERNA. The auction was directed against the private company that owns the property, and the seizure had been imposed for €500,000, which constituted part of the total claim. The latest news, however, is that the auction has been suspended, so the Ministry of Environment and Energy, at least for the time being, is not “at risk”…

Qualco has set in motion its plan to become something else

Seventeen months after its listing at €5.46, Qualco’s share is trading slightly above €6.20, with a market capitalization of €434 million. For those who participated in the May 2025 public offering, the return does not exceed 13%. Management responded by changing lanes. Executive Chairman Orestis Tsakalotos presented analysts with three new pillars: real estate, embedded finance, and dual-use technologies for defense and civil protection. The target for the EBITDA margin rises to 22% from 2027, compared with approximately 20% this year. Reliable company sources explain that the shareholder register has also changed recently, with increased participation by long-term investors. At the top, however, the picture remains the same. The founders control 61.88% through Wokalon, while PIMCO holds 7.70%. UBS raised its price target to €6.75, while the company is considering a share buyback. The 4,000 properties in its portfolio are not owned by Qualco. They are assets belonging to the Ministry of Health, which Qualco will map and value for nearly €10 million over 24 months. In embedded finance (payment systems), it has submitted a licensing application to the Bank of Greece and is targeting a launch in the first half of 2027. In defense, the first step was taken through cooperation with the Skaramanga Shipyards on an unmanned surface vessel. For now, the traditional business is carrying the weight, with a backlog of €762 million, 44% of it from abroad. In the first half of the year, revenue increased by 14% to €101.1 million, but the EBITDA margin fell to 13.2%, and the result was a loss of €0.6 million. The market has heard the plan. It is waiting for the second half of the year to believe it.

Oil did not go to $200, but the ship carrying it costs more than $1 million a day

Hormuz frightened the markets, but ultimately did not send oil to $200 a barrel, as the most extreme scenarios had predicted. The reason is that the market proved more resilient than initially estimated and, above all, alternative sources and supply routes were activated quickly. Approximately 400 million barrels from strategic reserves were released into the market, the United States increased its exports, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made use of pipelines that bypass the Strait, keeping significant volumes of oil in circulation. At the same time, China reduced its imports and turned partly to its own reserves. The result was that the shortage that could have triggered a genuine price explosion was avoided. There was, however, another explosion in the freight market. Disruption to maritime transport, delays, war-risk insurance premiums, and limited available capacity sent VLCC freight rates soaring. On the Middle East–Asia route, rates above $1.2 million per day were recorded. And this is where the Greek dimension comes in. With Greek shipowners having a dominant presence in tankers, the Hormuz paradox takes on particular significance on Akti Miaouli: the barrel did not reach $200, but the ship carrying it came to cost more than $1 million a day. The Hormuz paradox.

The Germans’ “no” to COSCO and the question of Piraeus

What is happening in Germany with COSCO is interesting, not so much because of Zippel itself, but because of what may follow. Berlin appears determined to block the acquisition of 80% of the logistics company by the Chinese state-owned group, now explicitly citing national-security concerns and the risk of creating “strategic dependencies.” Five ministries have come out against the deal. And this is where the conversation moves farther south, to Piraeus. Because what the Germans fear today could happen to their own logistics sector has long since taken place in Greece, albeit on a different scale. COSCO controls 67% of the Piraeus Port Authority, and this year marked ten years since its strategic investment in Greece’s largest port. This does not, of course, mean that there is an issue concerning Piraeus. It does, however, mean that the European environment surrounding such investments is changing. The new European strategy for ports now places competitiveness, resilience, and the security of critical infrastructure on the same map. And the question for Athens is a delicate one. If Europe begins moving from the “screening” of new Chinese investments to stricter oversight of the existing Chinese presence, how easy will it be for Piraeus to remain outside this discussion? Because buying a port in 2016 is one thing, and owning it ten years later, when European ports are now also being treated as strategic-security infrastructure, is quite another.

Celestyal: We pay the fee, but where does the money go?

Captain Giorgos Koubenas of Celestyal sent a message with a clear addressee—the state—from the podium of ITC 2026. Greek cruising may be moving at high speed, but companies are seeing the bill grow: more expensive fuel, EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, port fees, and now a cruise levy. And this is where the reasonable question arises: How much of this money actually goes back to the ports? Koubenas put the issue exactly where it hurts. At several Greek destinations, cruise ships are still served at anchor, while infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the growth of the market. Celestyal’s message is that, if new charges are being imposed, there should also be visible reciprocity: piers, better services, modern infrastructure, and specific Master Plans. And the observation carries greater weight because Celestyal does not merely pass through Greece. It is headquartered here, carries out shipbuilding and repair work at Greek shipyards, and is opening up new Greek destinations. In 2027, it is adding Thessaloniki and Volos to its winter schedule.

Marine Le Pen raises the stakes

Markets expected Marine Le Pen to announce a €125 billion spending-cut program aimed at reducing the deficit to 2.9% of GDP by 2032. Yesterday, however, from the party headquarters and with Jordan Bardella at her side, she promised considerably more. Net savings of €140 billion by 2032, a primary-budget balance within 18 months, a deficit below 3% as early as 2030, and debt at 112% of GDP. The current Lecornu government, with €43 billion in cuts for 2027, is targeting 3% in 2029. It has every reason to hurry. On October 1, the French 10-year yield touched 4.96%, its highest level since 2002, following its worst quarter in almost 40 years. The spread against Germany, around 85 basis points a month earlier, closed Monday at 136. The euro fell to $1.12, a 17-month low. France is now borrowing at a higher cost than Italy and Greece, whose 10-year yield stands at 4.52%. The problem, however, lies in the rest of the package of measures announced by the candidate for the French presidency. In the same interview, Le Pen promised net tax cuts of €30 billion, reiterated that she wants France to make a smaller contribution to the EU budget, and called on the ECB to intervene to ease the burden of interest rates. On the hot issue of pensions, her party wants the retirement age capped at 62—why not 60? There, Le Pen gave a figure: €15–20 billion in long-term savings, along with a proposal for a funded pension pillar. She also warned that without a political rupture, France is heading toward bankruptcy. Coming from a candidate who is leading in the polls, that word carries particular weight. The party’s economic spokesman, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, celebrated the fact that the 10-year yield was falling while Le Pen was speaking. That, too, is an indication of what awaits us from next April.

Forty basis points, there and back

About a month ago, on September 10, the yield spread between the U.S. 30-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 87 basis points. On September 23, it had fallen to 47. Yesterday, it was back at 83. Down for nine sessions, up for another nine. The same phenomenon can be seen in the 2-year/10-year Treasury pair, from 49 basis points on August 21 to 18 on September 23—the lowest of the year—and back to 49.5 on Monday. The first leg is due to the Fed. On September 16, it cut interest rates by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%, for the first time since 2023 and unanimously. The market quickly moved to price in another move in October, which is why the 2-year moved ahead and the curve flattened. The second leg, however, is due to Debt. Weak auctions, heavy Treasury supply, and fiscal concerns hammered the longer maturities. On Monday, the 10-year yield touched 5.349%, its highest since April 2002, while the 30-year reached 5.70%. At the same time, the 2-year was stuck at 4.83%. The cause was identified in September’s anemic employment report, with just 29,000 new jobs versus the 90,000 expected. The probability that the Fed will remain on hold at its next meeting rose to around 82%. The curve returned to where it had started; yields did not. During September, the 2-year yield rose 55 basis points and the 10-year 54. This peculiar equilibrium will be tested again today with the release of the minutes of the September meeting and with inflation data on October 14. Despite the unusually large swings for a major and powerful economy, the picture is the same. Money, half a percentage point more expensive.

The customer’s voice

Last Sunday, October 4, Donald Trump accused Fox News on Truth Social of ignoring his campaign rallies, said he had stopped watching it, and warned that the channel would end up with CNN-level ratings. One day later, on Monday, October 5, Fox News announced the hiring of 29-year-old Karoline Leavitt, who had been White House press secretary until the end of August. Leavitt will begin as a commentator on November 1, two days before the midterm elections. This is a hire with some interesting numbers behind it. In September, Fox News had 1.72 million viewers in prime time, 32% fewer than a year earlier. Among viewers aged 25–54, the demographic used for advertising pricing, the decline reached 44.3%, to 156,000. In the third quarter, the figure was 2.06 million, down 17%, while MS NOW rose 16% and CNN 12.8%. Fox remains number one, with an audience larger than those of its two competitors combined. The stakes are significant. In the fiscal year ending June 30, the cable-network segment generated $7.35 billion in revenue for Fox Corp. That amount represents 43% of a group with total revenue of $17.13 billion and EBITDA of $3.10 billion. Advertising revenue in the segment increased 10%, to $1.69 billion, thanks to higher rates as well as the World Cup, despite lower viewership, as the company itself acknowledges. More expensive spots reaching a smaller audience is a strategy that cannot withstand many quarters. Leavitt becomes the channel’s third former White House press secretary, after Dana Perino and Kayleigh McEnany. Her compensation was not disclosed. It is known, however, from a post by Trump himself in August, that she remains one of his key outside advisers for the November 3 elections. When the most important customer threatens to switch channels, you hire the voice of the customer…