Following a parliamentary “coup” two weeks ago to remove Aguila Saleh from his position as speaker of the Libyan Parliament, the first decision taken at today’s inaugural session under the new speaker was to ratify the Turkish-Libyan memorandum of understanding.

After Ankara restored relations with eastern Libya and the Haftar camp, intense pressure was exerted on Aguila Saleh to bring the memorandum forward for ratification, but he refused to comply. There were also disagreements over his role in Libya’s political process. Acting on the orders of Saddam Haftar, the powerful figure in eastern Libya, Saleh was effectively removed from his duties. His successor is firmly under Saddam Haftar’s control and is also the preferred candidate of the Turkish-Libyan parliamentary friendship group.

Ankara had been systematically coercing the Haftar camp into ratifying the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, threatening that, otherwise, it would resume full military support for the Tripoli camp and suspend its “investment” programmes in Benghazi. Today’s visit to Libya by Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) and one of the architects of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, had given no indication that events would unfold any differently.

Ratification of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum does not, in practical terms, change anything on the ground, nor does it make the agreement lawful. The memorandum violates every principle of international law and the law of the sea. However, ratification lends it a veneer of domestic legitimacy, since one of the main arguments for its invalidity was that it had not been ratified by parliament.

The move comes, of course, after a period of tensions with Libya over the exploration activities announced by Greece south of Crete, where Chevron is operating in two Greek offshore blocks. In the preceding period, there had also been objections from the parallel government established in Benghazi by the Haftar camp. It is clear that ratification of the memorandum also poses a serious obstacle to the ongoing talks between Greece and Libya on the delimitation of maritime zones.

Libya has, meanwhile, sought to legitimise its unreasonable claims, which are based on the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, by unilaterally submitting a map to the United Nations (UN) on 27 May 2025 showing the outer limits of its continental shelf in the Mediterranean. The map sets out Libya’s claims, which overlap with the Greek continental shelf.

Saddam Haftar, to whom the restoration of relations between eastern Libya and Ankara is largely attributed, visited Athens several months ago and signalled a willingness to cooperate. During the visit to Benghazi by Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis, the impression was also given, including by Field Marshal Haftar, that no such initiative would be pursued.

This is because officials in Benghazi understand that such a move to “legitimise” the Turkish-Libyan memorandum would trigger a new round of serious confrontation, not only with Greece but also with the European Union (EU). The development also comes as Egypt, which opposes any Turkish intervention in Libya, has declared the Turkish-Libyan memorandum invalid and has been providing political support to Aguila Saleh. The Haftar camp’s capitulation to Turkish pressure is, naturally, a source of considerable concern in Cairo.

It should also be taken into account that the decision to ratify the memorandum at this juncture is likely to provoke reactions, at least behind the scenes, from both Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have built close ties with eastern Libya.

The removal of Aguila Saleh

Aguila Saleh was swiftly removed as speaker of parliament two weeks ago, after a proposal submitted to and approved by the chamber, by MPs controlled by Saddam Haftar, stipulated that the speaker’s term of office could not exceed 12 months.