Brent crude oil briefly climbed above $112 a barrel on Thursday following a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield in Saudi Arabia, which resulted in two deaths. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices stood at €89.50 per megawatt-hour, as limited liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Middle East and low storage levels heightened concerns about the security of supplies ahead of winter.

Oil prices rose as the attack on the Shaybah oilfield highlighted escalating tensions in the Middle East and the risk of further disruptions to energy supplies. At the same time, the United States ordered some personnel and their family members to leave US embassies in Saudi Arabia.

In eastern Europe, Ukraine launched extensive drone attacks against Russia this week, targeting critical oil infrastructure. The attacks underscore Kyiv’s determination to prevent Moscow from increasing diesel exports under an agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, further price increases could be limited by rising crude oil shipments from the Middle East, as export flows approach pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest level since March.

Meanwhile, Russia is expected to deliver its first shipment of diesel to the United States on Thursday, a development linked to efforts to strengthen energy trade flows.

Natural gas: Storage levels at a seasonal historic low

In the European natural gas market, prices remained above €89 per megawatt-hour, just below their highest levels in almost four years. Limited supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East and low storage levels are heightening concerns about whether sufficient volumes will be available ahead of winter.

Ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are casting doubt on how quickly natural gas exports from the region can recover. LNG flows remain approximately 80% below the level recorded during the same period last year, while alternative suppliers lack sufficient spare capacity to make up the shortfall quickly.

The situation increases the risk that tight supply conditions will persist into 2027. According to data for 21 October, European gas storage facilities were 74.58% full, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2009.