France has warned of the risk of nuclear escalation resulting from possible miscalculations in the use of long-range missiles during a potential military conflict with Russia, calling on Germany to clarify how it plans to deploy the weapons systems.

According to a Financial Times report, Paris is concerned that Moscow could misinterpret the use of long-range weapons by European allies, viewing conventional strikes as the beginning of a broader military offensive.

The concern is growing as Germany rapidly expands its arsenal of long-range missiles, including systems capable of striking targets deep inside Russian territory.

French officials have made clear that they want Berlin’s plans for deploying and using these weapons to be aligned with France’s nuclear doctrine, in order to avoid actions that could lead to uncontrolled escalation.

Germany invests €12 billion in long-range missiles

French concerns come as Berlin significantly accelerates the strengthening of its military capabilities.

Germany plans to invest approximately €12 billion in developing a new arsenal of long-range missiles, aimed at deterring Russia.

The armaments programme includes low-cost cruise missiles, US Tomahawk missiles and advanced weapons systems being jointly developed with the United Kingdom.

As part of the programme, Berlin plans to spend almost €3.4 billion on acquiring US Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon mobile launchers.

With a reported range of around 2,500 kilometres, the missiles would give Germany the ability to carry out ground-based strikes against targets far behind enemy lines. At the same time, Germany is working with the United Kingdom on a classified missile development programme.

The joint “Deep Precision Strike” programme envisages the creation of a weapons system capable of striking targets at distances of up to 2,000 kilometres, including military logistics hubs and supply lines inside Russia.

The system could become operational by 2034.

‘We could reach the nuclear threshold without even realising it’

The possibility that Moscow could misinterpret European military moves is a major source of concern for France.

“If the Russians misinterpret the message, we could reach the nuclear threshold without even realising it,” a French official told the Financial Times.

Paris is also concerned that Moscow could hold France responsible for attacks carried out by other European allies, even if French military forces had no direct involvement.

One of the sources cited by the Financial Times noted that France has developed a particular nuclear “grammar and vocabulary” that Germany does not possess. The remark highlighted the differences between the two countries in their understanding of nuclear deterrence, the management of military signalling towards an adversary and the risk of escalation during a conflict.

Berlin agrees on the need for a common doctrine

Despite French concerns, the German side appears receptive to developing a common framework for the use of long-range weapons and the management of escalation risks.

A senior German official told the Financial Times that Berlin “could not agree more” on the need for a common doctrine. “This is not something the French are asking for and we are resisting,” the official said.

According to the same official, previous discussions had reached an impasse because of internal debate in France over the future of the country’s nuclear strategy. However, the official added that consultations between Paris and Berlin are now gaining fresh momentum.

Germany’s refusal to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine

The rapid development of Germany’s long-range missile capabilities has also reignited debate over Berlin’s reluctance to provide Ukraine with similar weapons systems.

Volodymyr Zelensky renewed Kyiv’s request to acquire German Taurus cruise missiles during an interview with German broadcaster ZDF on 5 November, arguing that Ukraine wanted to purchase the weapons and test them under real combat conditions.

Berlin, however, has repeatedly refused to supply the missiles, citing concerns about the risk of escalating the war with Russia.

For his part, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has argued that Ukraine already has the capability to strike Russian oil refineries and military logistics facilities using domestically manufactured unmanned aerial vehicles.