Having had the door shut by the US in the F-35 programme, as well as the upgrade to the Viper level of the F-16, the Turks are facing many important problems with their Air Force.

The acquisition of the Rafale by Greece and the upgrade of the F-16 will create a new balance of power in the Aegean by the end of 2024, with over 50 modern Greek fighters in operational readiness with long-range strike capabilities that the Turks do not have.

At the same time, the situation in the Turkish Air Force is facing serious difficulties due to the fact that it is forced to ‘cannibalise’ other aircraft to keep its own F-16 jets operational. Meanwhile, the situation regarding the status of Turkish pilots has not returned to the pre-coup era in 2016 after Erdogan purged his Air Force of pilots allegedly sympathetic to Gulen.

Erdogan is desperately looking for solutions in order to galvanise his electorate ahead of the upcoming elections. The Turkish military is pushing him to make some move, as they see the balance in the Aegean tilting definitively in favour of Greece.

One of the solutions being studied is to acquire a batch of 24 Russian Su-35s, which were originally ordered by Egypt, but no longer want to receive them due to pressure from America.

This order has remained in the air, with these planes being sometimes reportedly provided to Iran and other times to Turkey. The latter appears to be seriously considering adding them to its arsenal, with the $2 billion cost appearing more affordable for Turkey’s current budgetary capacity.

But that could further strain Turkey’s already rocky relationship with the US.

The scenario of French and American aircraft facing off against Russian ones over the Aegean seems quite far-fetched. But Erdogan has his back against the… electoral wall and is becoming even more unpredictable as crunch time is nearing.