While we may gradually transition into summer, the weather in Ankara, however, suggests a transitional period between winter, with its gloominess, chill, and occasional drizzles. At this delicate balance point, with its variable characteristics, lie Greek-Turkish relations, although the reference to “spring” would perhaps be an exaggeration. In this context, Kyriakos Mitsotakis makes his first visit – both in his tenure and life – to the Turkish capital for his fourth meeting with Mr. Erdogan in recent times, this time at the White Palace. Previous meetings took place in Vilnius, New York, and Athens, and this visit reciprocates Erdogan’s first visit after years of tension in Greece.

A key element that will emerge from the meeting in Ankara is the roadmap for future meetings. Mitsotakis and Erdogan are expected to meet in New York in September, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, and they will also coincide at the NATO Summit in Washington in July. Beyond these, however, meetings at a lower level are pending, which need to enter a new cycle, with the replacement of Deputy Foreign Minister Burak Akçapar, who is moving to the UN in the coming months, leaving for the time being without a interlocutor for political dialogue and the positive agenda, with Alexandra Papadopoulou and Kostas Fragogiannis temporarily stepping in.

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The Greek Prime Minister and the Turkish President will approach their meeting with a shared value to maintain the current state of Greek-Turkish relations. While Athens is assessing the absence of recent challenges, Turkey has softened its stance on Greek island sovereignty. Mitsotakis’s warm reception in Ankara anticipates private talks between the two leaders and their aides, with discussions expected to address broader issues. However, tensions persist, notably over the recent conversion of a monastery into a mosque. Mitsotakis believes dialogue is preferable despite challenges. The meeting’s outcome, particularly the joint statements, will set the tone for Mitsotakis’s visit, with attention on issues like maritime parks and the Muslim minority in Thrace.

There’s widespread acknowledgment that while the diplomatic climate could improve, substantive talks on territorial waters and the EEZ are yet to be initiated. Both countries are skirting the issue, hindered not just by a lack of political mandate but also by immature conditions. Despite some improvement, trust remains incomplete, and the treaty isn’t entirely favorable. On the business front, cooperation between Greece and Turkey has yielded significant opportunities, with Turks making inroads into the Greek retail market and benefiting from tourism in the Aegean islands during the off-season. The establishment of the Greek-Turkish Business Council, led by prominent figures from both sides, aims to institutionalize this relationship, providing a platform for direct communication and fostering B2B partnership development, reflecting substantial interest from both Aegean nations.