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Analysis: Even if peace comes to the Middle East now, it will still take a long time for fuel prices to fall
Even if a U.S.–Iran agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, fuel prices are unlikely to return quickly to their early-2026 levels. Markets will need months to be “convinced” that the danger has truly passed. This is the well-known “rockets and feathers” phenomenon
A three-stage plan is being studied by the US and Iran: Temporary agreement on a cessation of war and 30-day nuclear negotiations
Markets rise and oil falls on optimism about the outcome of the negotiations - Focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme
“Relief” for global bonds amid optimism over a US–Iran peace deal
The prospect of a diplomatic solution triggered a strong wave of buying in government bonds worldwide, while falling oil prices led to a decline in yields in the US, Germany, and especially the UK
“Trump backs down”: Celebrations in Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz, unclear how maritime traffic will be restored
Questions remain over how more than 1,500 ships currently trapped in the Strait will be freed. In every possible way, before the suspension of Operation “Freedom,” the United States was attempting to send the message that it does not want a return to conflict
Close to a US–Iran agreement: What developments are brought by Trump’s “freeze” of Operation Freedom in Hormuz
Secret negotiations in full swing – The naval blockade remains, but expectations for de-escalation are rising
Iran moves to consolidate control over the Strait of Hormuz: Tolls and new ship transit control mechanism announced by Tehran
Ships wishing to pass through the maritime passage will be required to communicate with the new authority, complete the necessary documentation, and pay the prescribed transit fees
