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> Politics

Samaras’ strategy for the European elections

Thoughts and dilemmas of the PM and his associates

Newsroom May 19 07:07

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Meetings are ongoing at Maximou Mansion with the Prime Minister and his close associates trying to decode the message of the first round of local elections, and in a way, shape the political tactics of the last few and most decisive days.

If everyone agrees on anything, that is that the result of the first round is positive for the New Democracy party, and disapproves of the tactics followed by SYRIZA. However, noone is allowed to celebrate until the week’s end. “The result”, as stated by a government staff member “works by itself and shapes the social climate, no need to stress it, because there is a danger of creating dissent”.

From them on, the hard part begins, after two elections with different features are going to be on the same day. For the municipal and regional ballot box, they have no doubt that the process started on the first Sunday will continue on the second Sunday, and New Democracy will come out on top.

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European elections, however, which is the major issue, is of a different order. There are two main principles. One of them is that the PM polarizes, and puts forth the dilemma that if his party loses the European elections by a wide margin, the country will go to national elections. This is suggested by a few, around Maximou Mansion.

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However, there is a danger, now, that SYRIZA’s maximalist policy was shot down to be a self-correction by the electoral body which will appear in the European elections ballot, especially if there is a heated political tension arising in the last days before the event. The second suggestion is for the PM to downgrade the European elections’ results and put the notion forth that conclusions arise from a combination of both elections’ results. For the ND members to state, in the media, that with a given margin lead of 3%-4% in ND’s favour outside Attica, there is no issue to be set of political stability and continuity of government. Proponents of this view note that social anger is real, has not been defused and that the polling down until Friday showed SYRIZA leading by 3-3.5% in European elections.

They are the ones that believe that since SYRIZA’s message for “subversion” was crushed during the first voting round, the public will be more receptive to a level-headed approach for the safe direction of the country. However, everyone should be afraid by voting abstinence, especially in regions where two right-wing candidates are the only ones left for the second right. In those regions, the voting public may not be incentivized to go and vote, which might work in favour of SYRIZA. Another point is that those that didn’t vote in the first round due to travelling costs, will travel for the second round to vote against the government. The final result will be based on the measurements already being studied about the voting public’s reactions, given the first round’s results.

It is certain, however, that the Prime Minister does not want national elections, because he thinks them as harmful even if he wins, and he therefore seeks the appropriate tactics to avoid them. In each case, the tactics of Mr. Samaras will be clear, since the national development programme is scheduled to be presented tomorrow at 17:00pm. The PM will be visiting the Dodecanese and the Ionian islands to support his party’s candidates on Wednesday and Thursday, and while the debate with Mr. Alexis Tsipras has been dismissed, it is open on whether he will hold a rally in Athens on Friday.

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