The result of today’s elections, which are conducted in a climate of political tension and severe conflict, it is expected to be a barometer and a precursor of political developments.

It is not the first time that the European elections in Greece are turned into a referendum on government policy sending strong political messages. The first time that the main opposition party connected European elections with the general political developments was in 1999, while in 2009 PASOK party requested then the condemnation of the government of New Democracy through European elections.

In both cases the opposition achieved its purpose, but only in 2009 did it manage to complete the topple of the government during the subsequent national elections.

In today’s political setting, New Democracy responded to the challenge of SYRIZA, which turned the European elections into a referendum, and raises the dilemma of “stability or return to chaos,”. The opposition party, though, poses another dilemma, that of “change or memorandum .

Almost all opinion polls conducted in the past few days show SYRIZA leading slightly and the crucial question is, if opinion results are confirmed , what will be the final percentage, therefore how strong the political message would be. Almost everyone agrees on up to a 3% difference which might be a significant victory for SYRIZA, but will not cause a big problem in the government.

If SYRIZA wins with great difference, it is likely to trigger various political developments, but these will be based on the combined results of local elections and European elections.

The focus is also on the performance of Golden Dawn and on whether Democratic Left (DIMAR) and Independent Greeks will last through the elections. A new factor in the political equation is probably the newly formed party, To Potami, which seems now to get low percentages while it will be interesting to see if the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) will be able to recover from the low percentages it got in national elections of 2012.